The past two weeks, I have been cautioning readers not to get too invested in NFL teams playing in must-win games. If anything, I have found value betting against those teams with an overinflated line. After fading these must-win spots in Week 14 resulted in a 3-2 record ATS, Week 15 gave us three winners in four games, with the lone loss being the incredible (incredibly awful for some of us) Eagles-Redskins finish.
The actual angle that has hit at a 63% rate since 1990 is betting on teams in Weeks 16 and 17 that have already been eliminated from the playoffs when they are facing a team in a must-win scenario. I tend to start looking for these spots in prior weeks because to me, if there is significant overvaluation in Weeks 16 and 17, then there will likely be the same to some degree in Weeks 14 and 15 as well. Fortunately, this season this strategy has generally treated us well.
In Week 16, there are four teams that absolutely must win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and in two of these instances they are facing teams already eliminated from the playoff picture. Let's dig into them:
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
The Rams not only need to win their final two games of the season, but they also need the Vikings (home to Green Bay and Chicago) to drop both of their remaining games as well. A loss on Saturday night eliminates Los Angeles from the playoff picture regardless, so this is a true must-win for the reigning NFC champions.
Dropping a game in Dallas by 23 points probably didn't help our position to potentially fade an inflated Rams number, and at 6.5 in the current market, my projection of 5.8 actually points to a small discrepancy now on the L.A. side. This one was quick and easy -- it's a stay-away for me.
Note: I do show value on the over 45 in this matchup if the 49ers are going to be without five starters on defense again. Both CB Richard Sherman and CB K'Waun Williams returned to practice on Tuesday, so the prospects look strong that they will play. I'm keeping an eye on it.
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
This is one of two matchups that falls under the 63% angle ATS since 1990. The Chargers have nothing to play for outside of pride and the occasional contract bonus. In fact, the majority of the public remembers that the Chargers just lost by 29 points to the Vikings and turned the ball over seven times. While the Raiders are a long shot to sneak into the playoffs, they are still alive -- but they have to win this Sunday. It would have been a different story had Oakland not blown a 16-3 lead to a Jaguars team that had dropped their past five games by an average of 23.4 points, but the Raiders went out in Raiders fashion in their final game that will ever be played at the Coliseum.
Los Angeles has already been bet up from -5.5 Tuesday morning to the -6.5s now in the majority of the market, and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw 7s by the end of the week. It's now or never if you want to back the Chargers under the key number -- putting your faith in the team with nothing to play for going up against the team with everything on the line. Maybe that's where the value is.
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-7)
This is the second matchup that offers us the opportunity to back a team eliminated from playoff contention. The Panthers took it to Seattle late in Week 15, storming back to cut their deficit to six despite Kyle Allen throwing three INTs. This isn't a team that has mailed it in, and with Indianapolis' playoff hopes on the line, I think we are getting an inflated number now sitting +7.
My projection is Panthers +5.1, and the matchup with Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers' third-ranked rushing offense (4.9 yards per carry) against a Colts defense that ranks bottom-half in the NFL in just about every rushing metric is enticing. Will Grier will get his first start -- and is definitely not Drew Brees -- but if we see the Colts sell out on the run again this Sunday, Allen will find success through the air as well. Brees completed 29 of his 30 pass attempts on Monday night, setting an NFL single-game record. There are leaks in the Colts' secondary to be exploited, and I think the Panthers can do enough to keep it within the seven points.
Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cleveland Browns
The Browns are another long shot to snag a playoff spot in the AFC after losing an ugly game in Arizona, but step one is beating the Ravens Sunday morning. To be fair, they've done it before: Cleveland beat Baltimore (in Baltimore) this year 40-25 in Week 4. It was one of the strangest results looking back on the season. Unfortunately at this point, as hot as Baltimore has been, I wouldn't expect to find any value betting on them -- even if it's against a Cleveland team in a must-win spot at home.
The market considered the -9 open earlier in the week to be too low, and it has now settled at -10 across the board. If anything, I show a slight edge on the Browns' side at this point (I project this matchup +8.8). On one hand, I'd love the opportunity to back the best team in the NFL while fading a team vying for a playoff spot with zero room for error. On the other hand, betting the Ravens at this point in the season is buying high.
The idea is to try our best to buy low and sell high on teams throughout the season. This is why having projections or guidelines to use makes the betting process and ultimately the decision-making process easier. I'm never going to lay 10 points with a team I think should be an 8.8-point favorite -- no matter the angle or trend. This one is a pass for me, but good luck to those who take a shot.