The NCAA tournament field is dwindling down, with Sweet 16 games on Thursday and Friday. There are betting opportunities galore. Our experts -- ESPN analysts Doug Kezirian, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Joe Fortenbaugh, Dalen Cuff, Erin Dolan and Anita Marks -- are here to give their best bets for the Sweet 16. And if your bracket hasn't quite played out how you hoped, you can still play ESPN's Tournament Challenge Second Chance!
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Jump to:
Thursday's picks | Friday's picks | Futures
Best bets for Thursday
5. Arkansas Razorbacks. vs. 1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-9, 155)
West Region: 7:09 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Marks' pick: Gonzaga -9
The Bulldogs are coming off an impressive win against Memphis where they flipped a switch in the second half and Drew Timme lit it up, shooting 60% from the field and putting up 25 points. Arkansas is on borrowed time and doesn't have the size or shooting to match up against Gonzaga.
3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-1, 137) vs. 2. Duke Blue Devils
West Region: 9:39 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
The Bear's pick: Texas Tech -1
I was a little surprised Tech opened favored here on the heels of the escape vs. Notre Dame and Duke's comeback win over Michigan State. As someone with Tech to win the region ticket, I was ecstatic to see the Red Raiders favored because it shows what the oddsmakers think of the matchup. And I wouldn't be surprised if Duke closes as the favorite, so you may want to wait on playing Tech, as I doubt the Red Raiders miss as many layups and go 4-for-15 from 3-point range again.
Fortenbaugh's pick: Texas Tech -1
Don't be fooled by Duke's nine-point win over Michigan State on Sunday, as that contest was tightly contested prior to Spartans head coach Tom Izzo using timeout after timeout down the stretch to draw up turnover after turnover. Duke's defense is surrendering the questionable average of 78 points per game over its past six outings, a problem that will no doubt be the program's tournament demise. On the flip side, Texas Tech enters the Sweet 16 with the nation's best defense and an outfit that buried every clutch free throw down the stretch against Notre Dame, something I value greatly.
Dolan's pick: Under 137
This is the highest total posted for a Texas Tech game since a Jan. 24 matchup with Kentucky, and that line closed at 139.5 and went over the posted total due to overtime. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have hit over this number in eight straight games, but they have not faced a defense like the Red Raiders during that span or arguably this entire season.
Duke can score, as the Blue Devils average 80.4 points and rank fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom. But defense is important. Texas Tech ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding opponents to 60.7 points per game. The Red Raiders just limited Notre Dame to 53 points despite the Fighting Irish being a top 10 team from 3-point range. Tech also held Notre Dame under its team total of 61.5, a number the Irish had surpassed in 13 straight games. Point being: The Red Raiders will limit Duke's offense more than people expect, and while the over will be the popular play here, I am going under.
Cuff's pick: Under 137
Texas Tech is No. 1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Duke's dynamic offense has not played a team ranked higher than UNC at No. 42 since the start of ACC play in January. This young Duke team just hasn't seen defense like this. The Red Raiders are so good at being disruptive, keeping the ball from being reversed and imposing their will on teams. Also, the tournament has been officiated loosely, allowing a lot of contact, which benefits the Red Raiders. Lastly, Tech is an improved offensive team but can still struggle to score at times. I think this will be Coach K's final game at Duke, but I'm much more confident betting on scoring being at low in this one.
5. Houston Cougars vs. 1. Arizona Wildcats (-2, 145.5)
South Region: 9:59 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio
The Bear's pick: Houston +2
If the number isn't telling you Houston is the right side, then go back and watch Arizona get pounded on the glass against TCU. Now the Cats get another rebounding machine in Josh Carlton, Fabian White Jr. and the Houston Cougars. Tommy Lloyd looked and acted a little overwhelmed for the first time this year as well. How Kerr Kriisa was on the floor throwing up 3-pointers in key spots was something to behold. If Lloyd couldn't figure out how to get good looks against TCU, how's the matchup with Kelvin Sampson going to go? Maybe the Cats got the scare out of their system Sunday night, but this is no easy ask against a Houston team that I think moves on.
Dolan's pick: Houston money line (+105)
Both teams are hot right now. The Cougars are 11-1 in their past 12 games and held opponents to 60 points in six of those 12. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have won nine straight but needed overtime to beat TCU last game. The Cougars are going to give this No. 1 seed a run for its money, as Houston ranks 10th in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on KenPom. Houston can also capitalize on Arizona's major turnover issue, as the Wildcats have had 64 total turnovers over the past four games. They turned it over 16 times vs. TCU and 19 times against Wright State. Houston ranks third in the nation in steals and will attack this weak area of the Wildcats. I'm not saying it will be easy for the Cougars, but I think they get the win.
Marks' pick: Houston +2
I have Houston coming out of the South Region -- and for good reason. The Cougars rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are well balanced, hold opponents to 60 points per game, block shots and have the size and athleticism to contest a very young Arizona team that almost got upset by TCU.
Fortenbaugh's pick: Under 145.5
This total is simply too high for a Houston program that prides itself on methodical offense (333rd out of 358 teams in tempo) and elite, shutdown defense (10th in NCAA). Keep in mind that this is the same unit that just limited both Illinois (round of 32) and Memphis (conference tournament final) to just 53 points. Arizona is known for its offense, but the Wildcats boast a top-20 defensive unit as well. I believe this number is inflated because of the 165 points that were scored in Arizona's last game against TCU.
Best bets for Friday
4. Providence Friars vs. 1. Kansas Jayhawks (-7.5, 141.5)
Midwest Region: 7:29 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago
The Bear's pick: Kansas -7.5
Like Arizona, Kansas found itself in a close call last weekend, but that was more a result of Creighton shooting like it never has this season. I liked the way the Jayhawks continued to answer every big Creighton bucket, and they should have a ton of fans in Chicago. The Friars have silenced a lot of critics with a Sweet 16 run, but the balance of Kansas on offense will likely be too much. Kansas should pull away late.
8. North Carolina Tar Heels vs. 4. UCLA Bruins (-2.5, 141.5)
East Region: 9:39 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Marks' pick: UCLA -2.5
I have UCLA coming out of the East Region and feel more confident about the selection than ever. The Bruins rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, are a great rebounding team, defend the 3-pointer well (opponents are only averaging 32%) and force turnovers. UNC has had an impressive run, but how far can a five-man rotation really go as the competition gets more difficult?
11. Iowa State Cyclones vs. 10. Miami Hurricanes (-2.5, 133)
Midwest Region: 9:59 p.m. ET, United Center, Chicago
Fortenbaugh's pick: Miami -2.5
Iowa State just knocked off LSU and Wisconsin -- two awful 3-point shooting teams -- in back-to-back games after limiting the Tigers and Badgers to a horrific 14.6% mark from deep (6-for-41). Please do me a favor and read that last stat again: 6-for-41! I'm predicting more success for a Hurricanes squad that ranks top 20 in offense and just blew the doors off of Auburn. This is where Iowa State's surprising run comes to an end.
Cuff's pick: Under 133
Iowa State has to make this ugly to win, and that's what the Cyclones did in the first two rounds in wins over LSU (59-54) and Wisconsin (54-59). But this isn't out of character for them; it's what they've done all year. Ranked fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Cyclones are a physical, defensive team that is severely limited offensively at times. They're bottom 90 in the nation in pace, and over their last five games they've scored 54, 59, 41, 68 and 36 points, respectively. Granted, Miami is not a defensive juggernaut, but the Cyclones are offensively challenged. Miami is not. The Canes have multiple playmakers who can create for themselves or their teammates, but those points won't come easy against this ISU defense. I think it's a tight game and am not sure who wins, but both hitting the mid-to-high-60s and the over doesn't seem likely.
Futures
Note: Odds entering tournament
Arizona Wildcats +160 to make Final Four
Cuff: I've been on this team since January and am not jumping off now, despite Kerr Kriisa being dinged up. The Wildcats to me are the best team in the country and are top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They play at pace, can score in various ways and have great length and versatility on the defensive end. And I love their path to the Final Four. I don't think they get challenged in the first weekend. In the Sweet 16, they'll likely see an Illinois team they already beat on the road. In the Elite 8, they likely will meet a Tennessee team they almost beat on the road after playing their worst first half of the season. At plus money, I like the favorite to get to New Orleans.
Tennessee Volunteers +400 to make Final Four
Dolan: The Vols come into the tournament with two important things working in their favor: momentum and elite defense. Tennessee ranks third in adjusted defensive rating on KenPom and has won 12 of its past 13. During that same stretch, the Vols impressively beat Kentucky (twice), Auburn and won the SEC tournament. The worst-case scenario for them is facing a Villanova team that has been dealing with injuries or an Arizona team they already beat this season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +550 to make Final Four
Cuff: Texas Tech is No. 1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it might be cliché to say, but that's gonna travel. But more importantly, the Red Raiders greatly improved on the offensive end since a December loss in Phoenix to Gonzaga, a team they'll have to beat in the Elite Eight for this ticket to cash. Injuries throughout the year to Terrence Shannon and Kevin McCullar might have actually helped the Red Raiders in the long run. Bryson Williams, Kevin Obanor, Adonis Arms and others have emerged into more effective and productive offensive roles. The Big 12 battle-tested Red Raiders are now at full strength, and if officials don't call this tournament really tight, this physical group can make a run. It will have to run through Duke in the Sweet 16 at a big value price.
UCLA Bruins +400 to make Final Four
Marks: UCLA has had a terrific season, winning games against contenders, even without their best players on the court because of injuries. The Bruins are back at full strength, rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and have a lot of tourney experience on their roster. I have UCLA upsetting Baylor, which is not at full strength, and beating either Kentucky or Virginia Tech to make it to the Final Four.
Gonzaga Bulldogs +325 to win national title
Marks: The Bulldogs have made it to the final in two of their past four tournaments, so they have the experience. They rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Zags also have the size to dominate in the paint, shoot 38% from 3-point range and have arguably the best player in the country in uniform in Chet Holmgren. Their toughest challenges will be Texas Tech (from their region in the West) and UCLA (in the East Region) to get to the final, then they would potentially contend with Kansas, Tennessee or Villanova to cut down the nets.
Kentucky Wildcats to win East (+275) and UCLA Bruins to win East (+400)
Fallica: It has been 15 years since a reigning national champion even got past the Sweet 16, and this depleted version of Baylor is going to have a hard time doing that. I'd love a prop Kentucky and UCLA vs. the field in the East, but I'll have to settle for playing the Cats and Bruins at plus prices and hope one gets to New Orleans.
Tennessee Volunteers to win South (+400) and Houston Cougars to win South (+600)
Fallica: I've been on the Volunteers bandwagon for a while now, and it's getting quite full. Despite being under-seeded, the path to win the South is still quite doable. They would potentially need to avenge an odd loss to Villanova and then beat Arizona a second time. People seemingly have Arizona inked into the national title game, but the Cats could run into a tough matchup with Houston. Even without Marcus Sasser, who has hinted he is trying to get back, the Cougars defense could lead the team back to the Final Four.
Miami Hurricanes to win Midwest (+2200) and
USC Trojans to win Midwest (+2000)
Fallica: If Kansas doesn't win this region, it could be anyone. I've dubbed this my "Kansas or Chaos" region. Two-seed Auburn seemingly peaked six weeks ago and has had trouble away from home lately, the 3-seed is Wisconsin, which has Johnny Davis either still injured or on fumes, and 4-seed Providence is KenPom's luckiest team in the country. Five-seed Iowa is the trendiest of all Final Four picks. Six-seed LSU just fired its coach. There's a real chance the Miami/USC winner could find itself in the Sweet 16 at the very least, which is why I'll take a chance with both long shots.
Texas Tech Red Raiders to win West (+550) and
Memphis Tigers to win West (+3000)
Fallica: I keep having flashbacks to last year's championship game and what Baylor was able to do to Gonzaga, both physically and athletically. Memphis could potentially do similar things. The Tigers could also turn it over 25 times and Mark Few's team could score 90. But at 30-1, I'll take a chance. A more realistic team to win the region is Texas Tech, which would be a horrible matchup for Duke in the Sweet 16 and could beat the Bulldogs for the second time in four years to reach the Final Four.
Texas Tech Red Raiders to reach Sweet 16 -180
Fallica: The Red Raiders got a pretty nice potential path to the Sweet 16. They are a 15-point favorite over Montana State and then would get one of Alabama, Notre Dame or Rutgers, where Tech would be a decent-sized favorite to move on.
Kansas Jayhawks to have more wins than
Baylor Bears -140
Fallica: I'd be very surprised if the Jayhawks didn't find themselves in the Elite 8 based on their draw. I don't see Baylor winning three games with its potential path.