Entering the Sweet 16, favorites have gone 24-26 ATS in the 2022 men's basketball championship (two games closed at pick'em). Overs are 28-24.
Gonzaga entered as the pre-tournament favorite and remains the favorite. Seven of the past 16 national champions entered as the title favorites. However, Gonzaga has not covered either of its first two NCAA tournament games. No eventual champion has started 0-2 ATS in the NCAA tournament since Arizona in 1997.
If Gonzaga beats Arkansas, it will face the winner of 3-seed Texas Tech and 2-seed Duke in the Elite 8. Duke is currently an underdog against Texas Tech. Duke has only been an underdog against a lower-seeded team one time since NCAA tournament expansion in 1985. Back in the 2004 national semifinals, Duke lost by one as a two-point underdog to UConn. Duke famously covered that spread on a Chris Duhon 38-footer at the buzzer.
Saturday
4 Arkansas vs 1 Gonzaga (-8.5)
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Arkansas' largest underdog spot this season is +6.5 at LSU on Jan. 15, a game Arkansas won outright.
This is just the sixth time this season Gonzaga has been a single-digit favorite. Gonzaga is 3-2 ATS as a single-digit favorite.
This is the 16th straight NCAA tournament game Gonzaga has been favored in, tied with Arizona for the longest active streak. UNC's streak of 19 straight games as an NCAA tournament favorite ended in the round of 32 against Baylor.
Gonzaga and Arkansas are two of three teams to reach the Sweet 16 despite not covering either of its first two games (Arizona). Teams that have failed to cover its first two NCAA tournament games are .500 ATS in the Sweet 16. The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win the NCAA tournament was Arizona in 1997.
11 Michigan vs 2 Villanova (-5)
Villanova is 7-1 ATS as a favorite of six points or less this season and 42-21-1 ATS in that spot since 2014-15.
Jay Wright is 11-5-1 ATS against Big Ten teams, but Villanova is 1-4 ATS against Big Ten teams since 2018-19.
Michigan is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season (5-4 outright).
Since 2012, double-digit seeds from major conferences are 9-3 ATS in the Sweet 16.
Over the past 10 seasons, Villanova has covered 60% of its games (200-133-5), the best mark in D-I. Michigan is 185-152-1 ATS in that span, the third-best mark among major conference teams.
Michigan games are 20-12-1 to the over this season (8-2 in last 10).
3 Texas Tech (-1) vs 2 Duke
This is the second time all season Duke has been an underdog. Duke beat Gonzaga outright as an 8.5-point underdog on Nov. 26.
Duke had been favored in 12 straight NCAA tournament games entering the Sweet 16. The last time Duke was an underdog in the NCAA tournament was in the 2016 Sweet 16 against Oregon (Duke lost by 14 as 3.5-point underdog).
This is the second time Duke has been an underdog against a lower-seeded team since 1985. 1-seed Duke was a 2-point underdog against 2-seed UConn in the 2004 Final Four. Duke lost by 1, covering the 2-point spread on a Chris Duhon 38-footer at the buzzer.
Mike Krzyzewski is 5-11 ATS in his last 16 Sweet 16 games (0-3 ATS last three).
Since 1985, Coach K is 7-4 ATS and 4-7 outright as an underdog in the NCAA tournament.
Coach K is 12-4 ATS in NCAA tournament games when the line is between +3 and -3 since 1985.
5 Houston vs 1 Arizona (-2)
Houston is 23-12-1 ATS this season, including 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
Over the past five seasons, Houston is 14-6 ATS as an underdog (10-10 SU), including 1-0 ATS this season.
Arizona is one of three teams to reach the Sweet 16 despite not covering either of its first two games (Gonzaga, Arkansas). Teams that have failed to cover its first two NCAA tournament games are .500 ATS in the Sweet 16. The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win the NCAA tournament was Arizona in 1997.
Sunday
15 St. Peter's vs 3 Purdue (-12.5)
15 seeds are 2-0 ATS and 0-2 SU in the Sweet 16.
Purdue is 9-4 ATS in nonconference games, including 8-1 ATS when not favored by at least 25 points.
Saint Peter's is 21-5-1 ATS when not favored by more than 7 points, including 10-3 ATS as an underdog (9-1 ATS, 7-3 SU last 10 games as underdog). Overall, Saint Peter's is 22-9 ATS this season.
4 Providence vs 1 Kansas (-7.5)
Bill Self is 6-14 ATS against Big East teams at Kansas, including 1-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament (0-4 ATS last 10 seasons).
Providence is 8-1 ATS and 7-2 outright as an underdog this season. Both losses came against Villanova.
Each of the past 15 top-4 seeds to be at least 7-point underdogs in the Sweet 16 lost the game outright (6-9 ATS). The last top-4 seed to win as a 7-point underdog in the Sweet 16 was 1997 Arizona (+10.5 vs 1 Kansas).
8 North Carolina vs 4 UCLA (-2)
North Carolina is an underdog for the second straight game after being favored in 19 straight NCAA tournament games. Prior to winning outright as an underdog against Baylor in the round of 32, UNC had failed to cover six straight NCAA tournament games as an underdog. UNC last won multiple games as an underdog in the NCAA tournament in 2000 (3-1).
North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
North Carolina has won outright each of the past three times it has been an underdog.
UCLA is 7-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament under Mick Cronin (all past two seasons).
Since 1985, 8-9 seeds that reach the Sweet 16 are 13-8 ATS in that round, including 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
North Carolina games are 21-12-2 to the over this season.
11 Iowa State vs 10 Miami (-2.5)
Iowa State is 15-0 outright and 11-4 ATS in nonconference games this season. Iowa State has been an underdog six times in nonconference games and won every time.
Overall, Iowa State is 12-6 ATS as an underdog (6-0 against nonconference foes)
Miami is 8-13 ATS as a favorite this season, including 1-7 ATS in nonconference games (5-8 ATS overall in nonconference games).
In non-First Four matchups between double-digit seeds, favorites are 19-8 ATS. However, in Sweet 16 matchups between double-digit seeds, favorites are 0-4 ATS and 1-3 outright.