Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for betting the Super Bowl

David is my oldest. Technically, he's my stepson, but whatever; that's genetics, not a relationship. He's my kid, and as longtime readers know, I came into his life when he was 10. Ten is a tough age for any kid, especially one who saw his parents get divorced when he was 7. And then the poor kid, after finally adjusting to that, had to deal with some new random dude dating his mom.

I had never been a dad before, so it was definitely an adjustment for all of us, especially David and I. Now, my wife and I have a great relationship with David's father and his wife, and they are very involved in David's life, so we are all very lucky in that regard, and that goes a long way; but specific to David and I, it definitely took us both some time to get used to our new normal.

David is 23 now and a college graduate, and he is all about sports betting -- so all about it, he decided to make it his career, working at FanDuel, a job he absolutely loves. His passion for sports betting is something we have in common. In fact, it's probably the thing we have the most in common.

I moved to Connecticut to work for ESPN in 2007, and while I have always used point spreads, game totals and other betting notes as part of my fantasy football analysis, this past season was the first time I could wager on sports on a regular basis, and I quickly found out that I LOVE it. Yes, all caps. Especially player props. Having already done the research all week long about what I believe players will or won't do in a fantasy football context, it's an easy leap to having a good and informed opinion on what a player will or won't do in a given game from a props perspective. And the best part is, every player is on the board.

Let's say that I think Nick Chubb is going to have a huge fantasy game one week. Great. But in fantasy football, I was already starting Chubb. He isn't available to be picked up in any league. There's nothing really to do about it. But with props, he has a rushing line. And a line on his rushing attempts. And odds on him to score a touchdown. And a ton of other options. Now I have something I can do with my prediction. Guy rubbing his hands while grinning GIF.

I will always love fantasy football, of course; but with sports betting, I can pick any player I want, and I can root for or against them. I can bet the under or the over. I can bet on any number of things related to that one player's performance. If I have a strong feeling on how a game plays out, I can parlay a few different correlated events in that same game: an over on rushing attempts and an under on passing attempts, for one easy example.

It gives me rooting interest in games or players I might not otherwise have as big an interest in, because I don't have players on my fantasy team (or my opponent's team) in that game. It allows me to hedge: If I think Nick Chubb is gonna really crush one specific week and I'm playing against him in fantasy, because of course I am, then I can bet Chubb's over. At least if he's gonna beat me in fantasy, he can win me some money while he's at it.

So I love that it gives me more ways and options to enjoy games I am going to be watching. I love that, just like fantasy football, it gives me action and a good old-fashioned sweat.

And I LOVE that it gives me another way to connect with my oldest son. Yes, all caps again.

He lives far away from us, on his own, so since college, maybe we'd talk once a week. Now? We talk all the time. Who do I like, who does he like, what are we betting, how are we looking, have you seen this promo, here's a parlay I really like, on and on and on. We are in this together, teaming up and trying to beat the books.

I've enjoyed every minute of it. It has brought us closer together, and I can't tell you how much that means to me.

And now, with 14:14 left in the fourth quarter of that Sunday night season finale, Derek Carr has passed to Hunter Renfrow for a touchdown.

But a 2-point conversion attempt fails, and it is now 26-14, Raiders; that's 40 points, eight short of what we need.

"Argh! That missed 2-point conversion might come back and [blank] us," I text David. "If LA scores they might not go for two. And LVR might just sit on the ball and run it out rest of way."

And just like that, Justin Herbert throws an interception.

"They really look like [blank]. Unreal."

Things are suddenly looking dicey for our parlay. We've sweated through three games and, now, with 12 or so minutes left, it's suddenly looking bleak.

The money is nice, of course, but really it's my ego and wanting my son to be happy that are driving this for me. I want to win this dumb parlay in the worst way. You have no idea.

I am watching the game, leaning forward and staring intently.

It's not pretty, and it's a bunch of short passes and some Josh Jacobs, but the Raiders managed to move the ball a bit. With 8:23 left, Daniel Carlson steps up to attempt a 52-yard field goal.

"52 yards. I don't know," my son texts.

"Nah, he's a great kicker. He's got this," I text back.

Sure enough, Carlson bangs it home, and Las Vegas goes up 29-14. 43 total points.

All we need is a touchdown.

Herbert and the Chargers take over and start a drive. It's fourth-and-6 with 5:01 left, and the Chargers go for it.

"Oh man. Gotta convert this."

"We're [blanked] if they stop 'em."

Herbert throws a pass to Mike Williams for 5 yards. He is called short of the line.

BUT!

The Chargers challenge it. Replays show they got a case.

"This call is huge," David texts. "I thought he leaned forward and had it."

"Agreed. It'll be overturned I think."

I can't believe how much I am hanging on this dumb call. But there we are, miles apart but both staring at our screens like they might reveal the secret of life itself. Finally, the refs make the call.

OVERTURNED!

First down, Bolts!

And David and I are still alive.

Our joy quickly turns back to concern as Herbert is sacked for an 11-yard loss on first down. The next two passes are incomplete. And now, Herbert, with his team's shot at the playoffs and our parlays in his hands, not necessarily in that order, faces a fourth-and-21 on the Raiders' 23 with 4:28 to play.

This is the ballgame.

And then, bless him and his feet and that cannon of an arm, Herbert scrambles around and finds Josh Palmer for a 23-yard score.

"Let's [Blanking] Go!!!!!!!!"

It's 29-20. The point after touchdown doesn't even matter now. The over hits for us, and the parlay cashes. You'd have thought we'd won the lottery. Maybe it was the all-day sweat, maybe it was intensity of the game, maybe it was the fact this was the last regular-season game, but, man, this dumb, small parlay was such a great moment, because I got to share it with my kid. We watched the rest of the game as the Chargers converted the 2-point try and scored again as time expired to send it to overtime. The teams then exchanged opening-drive field goals, before Carlson sent the Raiders to the playoffs kicking the final three of the 65 points that were scored in the game. And the whole game was great, but nothing was more thrilling than that 49th point. I might be biased, of course.

I've been predicting individual player performances for over three decades, but this is the first time I've ever done any real written betting content. There's not a lot of time to focus on it during the season, but this is the Super Bowl, and here we are.

Before we dive in, a few caveats.

First, it seems obvious, but please only bet what you can afford to lose. I bet for entertainment, and it's something I enjoy doing with my kid. But I only bet an amount that, even if I lost every single wager, still wouldn't affect my life at all. So have fun, but be conservative.

Finally, understand that lines and odds, especially with player props, change all the time. There's a very decent chance the lines and/or the juice listed below will fluctuate before kickoff, and the juice might move to a place where it's no longer a bet you'd like to make. Caesars Sportsbook is the official odds provider for ESPN, so the odds listed below (except where noted) are from it. Its numbers might differ slightly from the odds when I bet them at sportsbooks here in Connecticut. Do with that what you will. And make sure you shop for the best lines and odds; it's half the fun, and it's also an advantage, especially with so many companies offering odds boosts, promos and specials. If you're new to betting, I strongly encourage you to read this primer on how to manage your money.

Let's go.

2022 Super Bowl player props I love (aka overs I'm taking)

Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted

Matthew Stafford 1.5 passing TDs

I believe Stafford hits this number -- and by the high juice, it's clear the books do, as well. Including the playoffs, Stafford has multiple touchdown passes in 80% of his games this season. He has multiple touchdown passes in five straight games. He has multiple touchdowns in nine of his past 10 games. So, yes, Stafford is likely to throw at least a couple of touchdowns in the Super Bowl, just as the Detroit Lions imagined he would one day when they drafted him. Cooper Kupp alone is around +200 for multiple touchdowns in this game, so you have to feel pretty confident in the guy who throws the ball to Kupp being able to toss two scores in this game to Kupp and/or LITERALLY ANYONE ELSE ON THE LOS ANGELES RAMS.

Matthew Stafford OVER 5.5 rushing yards

Let's be clear. Stafford isn't exactly Kyler Murray. He doesn't have Kyler's ability to be a dual-threat QB. He doesn't have Murray's speed. Why, he doesn't even have an Instagram. Seriously, how can you unfollow someone if you don't have a way to follow them in the first place? Like, what's he do? Talk to them? Face to face? Ha! What the heck is that?

I'll try to figure that one out later, but in the meantime, despite not being fleet of foot, I like the over here on Stafford's rushing. He has at least 6 rushing yards in all three of his playoff games this season, including a run of 10-plus yards in two of those. The Bengals don't really blitz that much, which is one of the reasons they are allowing opponents 3.02 seconds before the pass this postseason, second worst in the league. Stafford will have time to throw (another reason to like the over on the touchdown passes), but at least a few times he's going to have to take off and scramble a little when his receivers are locked down in coverage. All he needs is six yards, just like he has done in three straight games. Super Bowl Sunday makes it four in a row.

Joe Mixon OVER 26.5 receiving yards

While I expect Mixon to struggle in the run game (that's what the kids call foreshadowing), it will open up some opportunities in the passing game, especially in a game in which the Bengals are expected to be trailing. Mixon has at least 27 receiving yards in five straight games and at least 23 routes run in all five of those games. We all know the Rams' defensive line has a big advantage over Cincy's offensive line, as the Bengals have allowed 12 sacks in their three playoff games. One way to alleviate that is a quick dump-off to your running back when pressure comes. Mixon has a 15.5% target share in the past five games, and I have even see this number at 25.5 in at least one place.

Tee Higgins OVER 5.5 receptions

I love that you can get plus money on this one at some books. Including the playoffs, Higgins has 10 games this season in which he got at least seven targets. He has at least six receptions in eight of those games. We don't expect Jalen Ramsey to shadow anyone, but my expectation is he spends more time on Ja'Marr Chase than Higgins. It's also worth mentioning that in the 17 games Chase and Higgins have played together this season (including playoffs), Chase averaged 7.7 targets per game and Higgins averaged 7.8. Higgins will get his looks. Again, we expect Cincy to be down and struggle to run the ball in this game, so Joe Burrow will look to Higgins early and often. Higgins had at least nine targets and six receptions in Cincinnati's divisional round win over the Tennessee Titans AND in their AFC title game comeback victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Tyler Boyd anytime TD (+190)

A long shot I like. Believe it or not, since Week 11, it's Tyler Boyd -- not Chase, not Higgins, but Tyler Boyd -- who leads the Bengals in red zone routes per game (3.6). Boyd also has an end zone target in four of his past five games, including the playoffs. And in two of his three playoff games, he has multiple red zone targets AND an end zone target. You want more? I've got more. Boyd leads the Bengals in targets and catches between the hashes this season, while the Rams allow the second-highest completion percentage on the season between the hashes. Plus, with C.J. Uzomah either missing this game or being at less than 100 percent, there might be even more opportunities in the middle of the field for Boyd. Put it all together and it feels like there's a very good chance that Boyd scores a touchdown in the Super Bowl. And if he scores 50 or 60 touchdowns in this game, he might just go down as the greatest TB in Super Bowl history.

Tee Higgins to have MORE receiving yards than Ja'Marr Chase (FanDuel)

I didn't intend for this to turn into a "hate on Ja'Marr Chase" column, but there's just a lot to like out there for Bengals receivers NOT named Ja'Marr Chase. Chase is a special player, of course, but I assure you the Rams are very well aware of that. So Chase is likely to get more defensive attention than Higgins. And in the 17 games they played together this season (including the playoffs), Higgins had more receiving yards in nine games -- and Chase in eight. So this bet is essentially a 50-50 toss-up, but you can bet it at plus money.

Trey Hendrickson to record a sack

Hendrickson forced pressures at one of the highest rates this season, and he has a sack in 14 of 17 games. He also got to Patrick Mahomes 1.5 times in the AFC Championship Game. While it's likely that Stafford will not adopt Mahomes' fourth-quarter strategy of running backward in a zigzag pattern while attempting to pass, you still have to like Hendrickson doing once in the Super Bowl what he has among the best in the game at doing.

Von Miller to record a sack

This is another one where the juice is obviously not great. But if you decide to bet it, you can comfort yourself with the knowledge that Cincy has allowed 12 sacks in its three playoff games -- and it would have allowed even more if Burrow hadn't turned into Michael Vick in the second half of the AFC title game. Meanwhile, Miller has at least one sack in six of his past seven games, including the playoffs.

Matt Gay OVER 1.5 made field goals