The biggest betting event of the year is upon us. The Los Angeles Rams will take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on Sunday. The Rams last appeared in a Super Bowl after the 2018 season, falling 13-3 to the Patriots. The Bengals have only been to the big game twice in franchise history, losing to the 49ers both times.
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody, ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder and Mackenzie Kraemer, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz will provide their top plays on the game, props and more.
Here are their best bets for Sunday's big game.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Jump to: Game bets | Props | Teasers & parlays
Super Bowl LVI: Los Angeles (-4.5, 48.5) vs. Cincinnati
Opening line: Los Angeles -3.5; Over/under: 50
FPI prediction: Los Angeles (66.3%) by 5.5 points
Mike Clay's over/under projection: 45.3
Clay's win probability: Los Angeles 62%
Los Angeles -4.5
Fortenbaugh: Without a shadow of a doubt, this will be the toughest defense Cincinnati has faced all year. The Rams concluded the regular season ranked fifth in the NFL in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the highest-graded unit of any club on the Cincy schedule. To put that into perspective, the Bengals have faced only three top-10 DVOA defenses all year, failing to win and cover the spread against both Green Bay and San Francisco, but finding more success against Kansas City. I think many of us would agree that the Chiefs defense is not the Rams defense. Additionally, I believe the Rams will have success running the football thanks to a Cincinnati defense that ranked 21st in the league in opponent yards per rushing attempt. If the Rams can run the rock with consistency, they can control the clock and set up the play-action passing game, not to mention take some of the early pressure off of Matthew Stafford's shoulders.
Under 48.5 total points (-110)
Moody: On the surface, it's easy to look at the offensive playmakers the Rams and Bengals have and assume they'll score a lot of points. The combined regular-season over/under record of Los Angeles and Cincinnati is 17-16-1. Additionally, the under has also dominated their postseason record, with a record of 1-5-0. When you look at the past history of the Super Bowl, the over/under has been 27-27. The past three games have all been under.
Cincinnati +4.5, Cincinnati ML (+170), Cincinnati -2.5 alt line (+190)
Marks: Burn me once, shame on you; burn me twice, shame on me. I'm tired of losing money on a Bengals team that beat the Titans and the Chiefs twice in less than 30 days. The Bengals offense has been better over the past six weeks, moving from 16th to 8th in expected points added (a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation), and Joe Burrow led starting QBs in completion percentage this season. Cincinnati's offensive line stepped up against a good Chiefs pass rush, allowing only one sack while committing to better pass protection. Their coaches make great adjustments in the second half; they made Patrick Mahomes look pedestrian after halftime in the AFC Championship game. The Bengals are the second-least penalized team in the league and have the best field goal kicker we have seen next to Justin Tucker. The Rams may be the "better team," but the Bengals have something special brewing in the Queen's City. Bengals win outright. (I'm also taking Bengals +10.5 in a 6-point teaser with over 43.5 points.)
Bearman: I was all set to just write the 4.5 up, which I grabbed as soon as the line was posted two weeks ago, but I saw Anita had all bases covered with her points, money line and alt spread and decided to just jump on board with all three. What a Cinderella story this has been for the Bengals, starting the season as 125-1 odds. One more win and we have our most unlikely Super Bowl winner since the Rams of St. Louis went from 4-12 to Super Bowl champs with 150-1 preseason odds at the end of the last century. Those are the only two teams in the last 40 years, per ESPN Stats & Information and SportsOddsHistory, that have reached the Super Bowl with 100-1 or longer odds. Nothing seems too big for these baby Bengals, as they continually prove that you can't count them out, rallying twice when down to the Chiefs and winning three one-score playoff games, the first playoff wins for the city in 31 years. They have all the intangibles to lift the Lombardi trophy ... a franchise QB, a good running game, outstanding wide receivers, a solid defense and great special teams, led by rookie kicker Evan McPherson. As long as Burrow and company avoid the big mistake against one of the better, if not the best defense they have faced all season, they can hang around as they usually do and give us one more Hollywood (sorry L.A. Rams) ending. Taking the points is one thing, but why the money line? Well, in the last 12 Super Bowls, the spread has not mattered. The team that covered, won. Might as well take the +170 and mix in an alt spread if the Bengals do what they do best ... break a tie with a game-winning FG.
Cincinnati to win third quarter (+155)
Moody: The Bengals are one of the best teams in the league at making halftime adjustments. Including the playoffs, Cincinnati has outscored opponents by 73 points in the third quarter, the best differential in the league. The Rams have been outscored 25-14 in the third quarter this postseason. Ja'Marr Chase has accumulated 584 receiving yards in the third quarter this season, including the playoffs. Only Cooper Kupp has more receiving yards during that period.
Dolan: Whatever motivational speech Zac Taylor gives his team at halftime is working. The Bengals are one of the best teams at halftime adjustments and have the best point differential (73) in the league, while also allowing the fewest points (50) in the third quarter. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are tied for last, allowing 116 points in the third quarter and have been outscored by 11 points in the third this postseason. The Rams have been a first-half team, while the Bengals have picked things up in the second half of games. I'll take Bengals third quarter outright.
Mike Clay's Playbook: The ultimate fantasy football and props betting guide for Super Bowl LVI.
Prop bets
Matthew Stafford over 280.5 passing yards (-125)
Clay's projection: 285.4 yards
Moody: In order to contain Cooper Kupp, the Bengals will have to do what no other defense has been able to do this season. Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor knows the dominant receiver well from his time with the Rams as an assistant wide receiver and quarterback coach. Even so, Kupp should put up numbers and so should Stafford, who is averaging 301.7 passing yards per game in the playoffs. The Bengals' defense has not allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for more than 285 yards since Week 16, but Cincinnati has been among the league's worst teams in defending the deep ball. That trend continued in the playoffs with opposing quarterbacks completing seven passes of 20 yards or more. Stafford won't be shy about testing the Bengals' secondary.
Joe Burrow over 273.5 passing yards (-115)
Clay's projection: 304.2 yards
Schatz: Burrow averaged 288 passing yards per game this season, and he did that in an outdoor stadium. Now he's coming indoors to face the Rams at SoFi. The Rams are a very good pass defense, but because of game scripts they actually gave a small increase to opposing pass attempts and pass yardage this season. Since the Rams were the better team during the regular season, it's more likely they take a lead in the Super Bowl, which will have the Bengals passing the ball to try to make up a deficit. That all points to more Burrow passing yardage, so we're going over here. Football Outsiders estimates a 67% chance of Burrow beating this prop.
Kezirian: Historically, young quarterbacks have not posted high stats in the Super Bowl. Perhaps the stage was too big, but it's a much different era nowadays. Quarterbacks entering the league are much more advanced and prepared. Also, young QBs like Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger represented a much smaller portion of the offense than the 25-year-old Burrow does. As Aaron mentioned, Cincy will lean on their best player and likely need to pass more in the second half to eliminate a deficit.
Stafford over 5.5 rushing yards (-110 )
Clay's projection: 5.5 yards
Kezirian: The playoffs are different from the regular season, and thus it occasionally calls for one to disregard season-long numbers. That's because the stakes are much higher in the postseason, causing players to do whatever it takes. Specifically, Stafford has surpassed this number in all three playoff games after doing it just four times in 17 regular season games. He's not a running threat, so if he sees an opportunity to gain yardage in certain situations, he's more willing to tuck it and take the hit.
Stafford over 2.5 rushing attempts
Clay's projection: 2.5 attempts
Fortenbaugh: This guy has been a different player in the postseason. After averaging just 1.8 rushing attempts per game during the regular season, Stafford has recorded four or more rushing attempts in every playoff contest. Keep in mind that kneel-downs count as rushing attempts. So between a couple scrambles and a couple kneel-downs late in the fourth quarter as the Rams ice the game, we should have ourselves a winning ticket here. I see value in over 2.5 because this prop should be posted at 3, in my opinion.
Burrow under 11.5 rushing yards (-110 )
Clay's projection: 8.9 yards
Dolan: Burrow will not have as much success on the ground in the Super Bowl as he did in the AFC title game. He's coming off a season-high 25 rushing yards against the Chiefs but is averaging only eight rushing yards per game this season. Even a dynamic quarterback like Kyler Murray was held to just six rushing yards by the Rams defense in the NFC wild-card game. Burrow's rushing yards prop opened at an average of seven yards. I don't think Burrow will have success against a defense that disguises its coverage well.
Stafford longest completion over 39.5 yards
Fortenbaugh: Nobody completed more passes of 40 or more yards during the regular season than Stafford, who finished his campaign with 18, three more than the quarterback who finished in second place. I believe the Rams are going to have success running the football on Sunday, as partially evidenced by the fact that Cincinnati surrendered an average of 5.8 rushing yards per attempt to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. And once L.A. gets the running game going, it's only a matter of time before Sean McVay starts dialing up the play-action deep shots as Cincinnati adjusts on the fly to try and limit the run.
Stafford throws INT (-140)
Marks: The Rams should have lost to the 49ers; San Francisco would have been in great shape had DB Jaquiski Tartt held on for an interception with nine minutes left in the game and the 49ers up by 3. Stafford has 18 interceptions this season in 20 games. Fourteen of the 18 have come against zone defense with little to no blitz, which is what the Bengals play over 60% of the time.
Burrow over 273.5 passing yards (-115), over 36.5 attempts (-110), over 24.5 completions (-105)
Clay's projections: 304.2 yards, 35.7 attempts, 25.4 completions
Marks: The Bengals are passing more on early downs of late, and in order to beat the Rams, that is what they have to do. The Rams are very good against the run, only allowing 3.9 YPC against "11" personnel, second-best in the NFL. Burrow thrives against the blitz, where he averages 10 yards per attempt, and the Rams rank in the top five in blitz rate.
Cam Akers under 62.5 rushing yards (-110)
Clay's projection: 61.3 yards
Walder: Are we sure Akers is going to get the most carries for the Rams in this game? Because in his return from an Achilles injury he has not played like a lead back. Below are the rush yards over expectation per carry from Rams running backs this year, including the postseason, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Sony Michel: -.09
Darrell Henderson Jr: -.20
Akers: -.88
Akers is generating close to a full yard less than what would be expected given the positions of players on the field at the time of handoff, significantly trailing Michel. He has also fumbled twice in four games this season. So I think betting the under gives you two ways to win: Akers runs inefficiently, or Sean McVay decides to lean more heavily on Michel. Either works in the unders' favor.
Kraemer: While Akers has been the Rams' lead running back since his miraculous recovery from a torn Achilles, he has not been that effective, leading to a lot of different ways this can hit. In four games, he is averaging 2.6 yards per rush with two fumbles. Michel ate into more of his workload last game, as Michel had 10 rushes while Akers had 13. Henderson also might return this week to take a couple more touches away from Akers. This postseason, Akers has gotten 56% of the Rams' rushing attempts. At that rate, the Rams would need to run the ball 31 times for Akers to get 17 carries, which has happened only four times in 20 games. Between Akers' ineffectiveness, backfield competition and the potential of a negative game script if the Bengals get ahead, there are more ways for Akers to go under this total than over it. I'll take the under on his carries and his rushing yards.
Joe Mixon over 93.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Clay's projection: 95.1 total yards
Moody: Mixon will be active both as a runner between the tackles and as a receiver out of the backfield. He is averaging 21.6 carries and 98.6 total yards per game in the playoffs.
Mixon under 62.5 rushing yards (-120)
Clay's projection: 63.8 yards
Marks: Mixon has hit this under 11 times this season and in six of his last seven games. It's difficult to run against a Rams defense that is only allowing 3.9 YPC against "11" personnel. The Bengals offense has been more pass-happy as of late, and their run rate has dropped by 10% over their past six games.
Samaje Perine over 1.5 receptions
Clay's projection: 1.7 receptions
Marks: Perine, who scored a 40-yard TD against the Chiefs on a screen pass, is playing the majority of third downs and has become more utilized in the passing attack over Mixon of late. He is also the best pass-protecting RB on the Bengals' roster and will be needed to help against Aaron Donald and crew.
Cooper Kupp over 104.5 receiving yards (-120 )
Clay's projection: 111.5 yards
Kezirian: Simply, the guy is always open -- and Stafford knows it. Rams coach Sean McVay will devise plenty of plays for his stud wideout, and Kupp will exploit the Cincy defense. He also has the ability to make the big play, racking up yards. So far in these playoffs, with the stakes higher, he surpassed this amount by a wide margin against both Tampa Bay and San Francisco. The convincing opening win over Arizona was decided early, and the Rams did not need to throw much. During the regular season, aside from a blowout loss to Arizona in October, Kupp finished with at least 92 receiving yards in every single game. The guy is a machine. Let's not overthink it.
Ja'Marr Chase under 80.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay's projection: 88 yards
Walder: I've been fading Chase receiving lines all year, so it only makes sense I'd do so in the Super Bowl, too, right? If we evaluate Chase's opportunity based on the depth, expected completion probability and expected YAC on his targets (via NFL Next Gen Stats), Chase should be averaging just 54.4 receiving yards per game. Now, he excels at catching passes over expectation and is a YAC machine, so there ought to be wiggle room here. But the difference between his expectation and this line isn't a matter of a few yards here or there -- it's a chasm. And even if we look only at the past few weeks -- since Week 16, when he has posted four 100-yard games in six contests -- his expected receiving yards per game is still only 65.1. One last time, I'm fading.
Tee Higgins over 69.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay's projection: 80 yards
Moody: With Chase producing a record-breaking rookie season, Higgins has flown under the radar. Chase is likely to draw a lot of defensive attention from the Rams in this game, which bodes well for Higgins' statistical outlook. During the Bengals' playoff run, Higgins has caught 14 of 23 targets for 209 receiving yards. I believe Higgins will amass more targets, receptions and receiving yards than many anticipate.
Marks: Higgins has hit this each of the last two games and is sporting a 26% target share. Higgins averages 10 YPC against zone coverage, and with Chase getting a lot of the attention against secondaries, I expect Higgins to see a lot of action on Sunday.
Tyler Boyd over 40.5 receiving yards (+100)
Clay's projection: 48.2 yards
Schatz: The Rams' pass defense is weakest in the short middle area of the field. And who was Burrow's favorite target in the short middle of the field? Well, this is a Boyd prop, so you probably know the answer. The Rams were only an average defense against receivers lined up in the slot, allowing 8.5 yards per target compared to an NFL average of 8.0. And the same reasons we favor Burrow going over his passing yardage prop also favor yardage for each of his main receivers. Football Outsiders estimates an 82% chance of Boyd beating this prop, and the +100 odds are just icing on the cake.
Fulghum: Boyd should benefit from the fact that Chase and Higgins are more likely to receive attention from Jalen Ramsey on the perimeter and the fact that he operates out of the slot and will run routes into the areas of the field that are occupied by the weakest defenders in the Rams defense (MLB, slot corner).
Odell Beckham Jr. over 63.5 receiving yards (-105), Beckham first TD scorer (+700)
Clay's projection: 58 yards
Moody: Beckham's move to the Rams has rejuvenated his career after an uneventful tenure with the Browns. So far in these playoffs, Beckham has caught 19 of 23 targets while averaging 78 receiving yards per contest. Including the playoffs, Beckham has scored six touchdowns for the Rams. He has been looking forward to playing in the Super Bowl his entire career, and he won't disappoint against the Bengals. A wide receiver has scored the first touchdown in the Super Bowl 23 times. This has occurred six times in the last 12 seasons.
Van Jefferson to score a touchdown (+215)
Walder: Let me start off by saying I think +215 is merely a fair price for Jefferson to score, but you can find longer odds if you shop around a little. Jefferson scored six touchdowns this year, including the postseason. But if we look at his targets and assess the touchdown probability based on the combination of completion probability and TD probability via YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats, we see Jefferson's expected touchdowns were a bit higher at 7.6. That's an average of .38 per game, which would translate to a 31.6% (+217) chance to score at least one touchdown in a game via a Poisson distribution. Of course, that's simply assuming Jefferson's opportunity in the past will be the same as in the Super Bowl, but I don't think that's a bad bet. The Rams traded for Beckham midway through the year but also lost Robert Woods. And despite low production numbers, Jefferson has played at least 87% of the offensive snaps in each of the Rams' last two games. Other bet to consider: Rams first team charged with a timeout (-115).
Evan McPherson over 7.5 points (-145 ), Cincinnati first FG made (-105), Cincinnati longest FG made (-115)
Dolan: Evan McPherson has scored over 7.5 points in each game this postseason. He has tallied 40 points in the playoffs so far, with only four kicks being extra points. He is a rookie, but he is clutch. Correlating markets could be beneficial, such as "Bengals longest field goal made" and "Bengals first field goal made." McPherson made a 54-yard FG against the Titans, while Matt Gay's longest field goal made was 46 yards against the Cardinals. McPherson is more efficient than Gay. In fact he has made 100% of his field goals compared to Gay's 81% efficiency this postseason. McPherson will have more chances to kick, as the Bengals have relied on him more often for points.
Trey Hendrickson records a sack (-150)
Marks: Stafford was sacked 35 times this season. The Rams offensive line gave up five to the Titans and five to the 49ers. They are a line that can be had! Hendrickson is one of the best free agent grabs this season and has 14 sacks and 2.5 in the postseason. Expect him to get after Stafford.
Mike Hilton over 4.5 combined tackles/assists (+120)
Marks: Considering Kupp plays out of the slot the majority of the time, Hilton is going to shoulder the responsibility of containing him. I expect Kupp to get a plethora of targets, and Hilton will be the nearest to him to tackle and prevent Kupp's YAC.
Here are some of the biggest bets being placed on the NFL's biggest game.
No score in first 5.5 minutes (-150)
Bearman: I went to this well in last year's Super Bowl and am going back again. None of the last five Super Bowls have had a score in the first 5.5 minutes. The narratives can range from the rust of being off for two weeks, feeling each other out early in the game, general big stage nerves, or maybe there is no narrative at all and it's just a coincidence. That's why, just like when handicapping this prop last year, I dug into both teams. And neither team is known as a fast starter. There has been a score (by Bengals or opponent) in the first 5.5 minutes of two of the last eight Bengals games, and one was after a Ryan Tannehill first-play interception, leading to a field goal after a one-first-down drive for Cincy. Rams games? No early scores in the last seven Rams games, including the playoffs. Los Angeles has only scored in the first 5.5 minutes of a game once in the last 12 games. Overall, the Rams have 53 total first-quarter points over their last 17 games, so consider the under as well. The -150 implies that there won't be a score in the first 5.5 minutes 60% of the time. The numbers we just went over are far above that.
Team with more time of possession in game: Los Angeles -120
Fortenbaugh: The Rams have recorded at least 34 minutes of possession in each of their three playoff games this postseason. But the real angle here is the Los Angeles rushing attack against the Cincinnati run defense. The Bengals finished the regular season ranked 21st in opponent yards per rushing attempt and just allowed Kansas City to average a staggering 5.8 yards per attempt in the AFC Championship Game. You don't think Sean McVay saw that on tape? I like the Rams to win the game, which means they'll likely be in a position to run the ball and grind the clock late in the fourth quarter.
Yes, game to be tied after 0-0 (-110)
Bearman: I am not going to overthink this one. Each of the last six postseason games, as in all games in the divisional and conference championship rounds, have been tied with under two minutes left. Why should this one be any different? All three Bengals postseason games have come down to the final play, and both these teams won in walkoff fashion in each of their last two games. Twelve of Cincy's 20 games have been one-score games, including nine of them by three points or less. At -110, it's a coin flip. We just need to hope there are no missed PATs or fluke safeties to mess up the score.
Longest score of the game: field goal (-130) over touchdown
Kezirian: Both teams obviously have big-play ability with their offense, but I also think the defenses will do what they can. Plus, the circumstances have to allow for a big throw, or something along those lines. Additionally, given the increase of pass interference penalties, I feel it will take a lot to see a 50-yard touchdown. However, both kickers have been solid this postseason and neither coach is afraid to call on his kicker.
Winning margin: Cincinnati by 1-6 (+370), Los Angeles 7-12 (+410)
Bearman: As noted earlier, the Bengals play a lot of close games, with 12 of their 20 games this season (60 pct) finishing as one-score games and 45 pct of them decided by 3 points or less. Should the Bengals pull off the Cinderella season with a Lombardi trophy, I would expect it to be more of the same: trail early, win the 3rd quarter and pull off a late FG from the league's unflappable rookie kicker. However, I am not married to that result, and since it's the Super Bowl and we have over 2,000 ways to bet on this game, I am going to hedge a little. The Rams are loaded all over the board and have the talent to blow anyone out. Should they execute the way they are capable of doing, they very well may win this one by more than one score. Unlike the Bengals, when the Rams win, they win convincingly. 10 of their 12 regular-season victories were by a TD or more, and then they blew out division-rival Arizona in the wild-card round. Yes, the last two were walk-off wins, but keep in mind, they were up 27-6 in the second half. I like the fact that the Rams range includes winning by 7, which is a key number. I still lean Bengals by a FG here, but with both ranges in the +370 to +410 range, we profit if we hit one of two.
Teasers & parlays
2-team, 6-point teaser of Cincinnati +10.5, over 42.5 (-120)
Fulghum: Giving the Bengals about 10 points with the 6-point tease is very attractive to me. The Bengals deserve credit for cobbling together these wins in the postseason despite adversity faced within each matchup. The Rams, consequently, have looked downright dominant at certain points of this postseason, but outside of the wild-card matchup with Arizona, they have struggled to bury teams. This should be a relatively close game. Meanwhile, I like the game to go over the total, so teasing that number down to 42.5 gives some margin for error.