The NFL postseason is just one week away from the conference championships. That means four games to consider betting this weekend, starting with two Saturday. The Bengals and Titans kick things off, followed by the 49ers and Packers.
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian (17-30-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-33, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (57-52-2, 3-5-1), Anita Marks (324-286, 14-15) and Erin Dolan (7-5, 3-0), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (149-150, 6-13), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (64-58, 3-4) and Mackenzie Kraemer (8-15, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (30-31-1, 0-1) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (63-47-1, 3-1-1) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through wild-card weekend.)
Here are their best bets for Saturday's divisional round games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Bengals-Titans | 49ers-Packers
Saturday's best bets
(4) Cincinnati Bengals at (1) Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 47)
Fortenbaugh: Everybody is aware of the ruthlessly effective nature of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid when he's coming off a bye week. But don't sleep on Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who is a career 4-0 straight up and against the spread while beating the closing number by an average of 19.1 points per game when given an extra week to prepare. Vrabel isn't winning by an average of 19.1 PPG off the bye, he's beating the closing point spread by 19.1 PPG! Cincinnati survived the Raiders last week but went an alarming 2-for-5 in the red zone against one of the worst red zone defenses of the current millennium. This is a bigger step up in class than most people think.
Pick: Titans -3.5
Schatz: I'm the leader of the "Titans are overrated brigade" online, the guy who won't shut up about how the Titans had the worst regular season of any No. 1 seed since at least 1983. The Titans finished 20th in DVOA and are attempting to become the first team to ever win the Super Bowl after a negative DVOA in the regular season. And yet, here I am picking the Titans to not only win, but to cover in their first playoff game. What's going on?
There are a number of reasons to be optimistic about the Titans this week. First, the Titans are healthy, and their offense has been much better when wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both on the field. (As good as Derrick Henry is, the loss of the receivers is where you really saw the impact for the Titans this season.) The Titans defense, meanwhile, has been better in recent games. It improved to 12th in DVOA by the end of the season and currently ranks seventh in weighted DVOA, weighted towards recent games.
Second, Cincinnati may not be as good as the public believes. The Bengals have been fantastic over the last couple of games, but overall this season their defense was mediocre and their offense was extremely boom-and-bust, built around huge deep shots (mostly to Ja'Marr Chase) but also susceptible to the opposing pass rush with a ton of sacks. Even after adjusting for sitting starters in Week 18, the Bengals are only 13th in weighted DVOA. ESPN FPI has the Titans and Bengals neck-and-neck, with the Titans slightly ahead, and it isn't adjusted for all those Titans injuries and the players who are coming back healthy.
Finally, the importance of the bye week. We estimate that's worth at least two points to the Titans in this game, and that's before considering Vrabel's strong history coming out of the bye. And so, while I may not be a believer in the Titans winning the Super Bowl this season, I'm definitely a believer in them for this week's game.
Pick: Titans -3.5
Kezirian: My favorite plays this entire playoff weekend involve backing the Titans to start strong. I think Tennessee's edge is its ability to bring an edge. Mike Vrabel knows how to push the right buttons and optimize his team's performance. The Titans play hard, and I expect them to jump on Cincy. My only concern is Joe Burrow just might be that special. Otherwise, I expect the Titans to jump on the Bengals early at home.
Pick: Titans first quarter -.5 (+106), Titans first half -2.5 (-120)
Marks: The Titans come into this match up rested and with home field advantage, while the Bengals hit the road with a lot of question marks on defense. Larry Ogunjobi, Mike Daniels, Josh Tupoy and Trey Hendrickson are dealing with injuries that may keep them out of the game. Offensively, the Titans are the healthiest they've been all season. Henry, Brown and Jones have only played 120 snaps together this season, and when all three are active, the Titans average seven yards per play. The Titans defense will be the best Burrow has faced all season, considering they can get after quarterbacks with only blitzing 20% of the time. Their rush defense is a lot better than the pass, so expect Burrow to chuck the rock in order to keep the chains moving.
Picks: Titans -3 (-140), Titans/Chiefs money line parlay (+170), Burrow over 35.5 passing attempts (-115), Burrow over 8.5 rushing yards (-130), Tyler Boyd over 46.5 receiving yards (-115), Joe Mixon over 3.5 receptions
Walder: C.J. Uzomah is on a bit of a target hot streak, with at least six in five of his last six games. But over the course of the season, his expected receiving yards per game is 23.8. On just 2.9 expected receptions per game, that's a decent bit lower than this line, so I'm fading the Bengals' tight end. I also like the under on Ja'Marr Chase (per usual), but his line at Caesars is a few yards lower than I've seen elsewhere, so at the moment I'm holding off on that one.
Pick: Uzomah under 31.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Last week against the Raiders, Burrow and wide Chase showed off their rapport. Chase was targeted 12 times and even had three rushing attempts. This dynamic duo has dominated secondaries all season. The Bengals should find some holes they can exploit in the Titans' pass defense. Back in Week 18, Tennessee allowed Danny Amendola to amass 113 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Titans allowed Deebo Samuel to accumulate 159 receiving yards in Week 16. Imagine what Chase will do against them.
Pick: Chase over 75.5 receiving yards (-120)
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Green Bay Packers (-6, 47)
Fortenbaugh: This will be San Francisco's sixth road game in eight weeks, not to mention the fact that the Niners enter the divisional round on just six days of preparation after beating the Cowboys in Dallas last Sunday. That's a fairly significant rest disadvantage against a healthy Packers club that is coming off a bye week. The Niners are also limping into Saturday's showdown with defensive MVP Fred Warner battling an ankle injury, stud pass rusher Nick Bosa coming off a concussion and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo fighting through a shoulder sprain that drastically affected his play in the wild-card round. Green Bay is getting healthy at the right time and finds itself in a very favorable situation to open the postseason.
Picks: Packers -6, Packers PK in 6-point teaser with Bills +8.5
Schatz: I absolutely love the offenses in this game. The Packers finished the season second in offensive DVOA, but of course that includes a game and a half of Jordan Love, plus that terrible game back in Week 1 against the Saints. Since Week 2, Aaron Rodgers has led the best offense in the league. San Francisco, meanwhile, ranked fifth in offensive DVOA this year. The Packers and 49ers finished only 10th and 13th in points scored, respectively, but a lot of that was because they didn't have to go full-tilt all game when they were winning late. I don't think that will be the case in this game. As far as defense goes, the 49ers were very good this year (seventh), but the Packers were not (22nd). Even with Jaire Alexander and Za'Darius Smith back for the Pack, the 49ers should be able to score points. The first game between these teams in Week 3 went to 58 points, and we estimate a 68% chance that this game goes over the current total.
Pick: Over 47
Marks: Garoppolo is 13-5 straight up as an underdog, which is the best of any QB in the Super Bowl era. Kyle Shanahan is 9-4 outright as a 'dog in the postseason, and Rodgers is 0-3 against the 49ers in the postseason. Weather conditions are expected to be worse than what they were in Buffalo last week, so rushing the football will be key. Give me Deebo Samuel seven days a week and twice on Saturday night against a Packers defense that ranks 30th in yards per rush allowed. The 49ers should have success running the ball, eating up time of possession and keeping Rodgers off the field. The 49ers are the best team in the NFL in red zone conversion rate (67%), and the Packers defense ranks 29th (67%).
Picks: 49ers +6, 49ers +12 in 6-point teaser with Rams +9, Samuel over 35.5 rushing yards, Brandon Aiyuk over 56.5 receiving yards (20/23)
Dolan: Jimmy Garoppolo could get crushed in this game considering it's his first career start at Lambeau. The coldest temperature he's started in was 41 degrees at Seattle in Week 13 this season, a 23-20 loss. He's 1-2 in his career in outdoor games when it is 45 degrees or colder. I've seen a low of 6 degrees and wind chill around 0 with winds 10-20 miles per hour wind expected at Lambeau Field.
Aaron Rodgers is coming off bye with some rest while the Niners are on their third straight road game. I am looking at the first half since I do not see a situation where the Niners go up big in the first half like they did against the Cowboys. Weather will be an X factor with a Packers team that knows a thing or two about cold weather and the playoffs.
Pick: Packers 1H (-3.5)
Walder: I like Kyle Juszczyk's over for two reasons. First, his expected receiving yards per game based on NFL Next Gen Stats information on his targets is 18.1. Even on a low expected reception volume that has me leaning over. In addition - and I'll admit this is a little squishier than the kind of thing I normally rely on - we have to think that the 49ers get creative on offense trying to keep up with the Packers, right? I feel like that increases the likelihood of Juszcyk targets.
On the other side, Mason Crosby's kicking points line is right about where FPI would expect it given it's game prediction and this total. However, Crosby's numbers this year are rough. Crosby has a FG percentage over expectation of -15% this year, per Next Gen Stats, worst among all kickers with at least 20 attempts. Add in the Green Bay cold and I think there's a better than average chance Crosby misses a kick Saturday.
Pick: Juszcyk over 10.5 receiving yards (-110), Crosby under 7.5 kicking points (-115)