As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones. This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into the divisional round!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 22-13-16
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 54)
FPI implied line: PK
FPI is pretty much right on market of all three scheduled games, so I will point out that we're talking about a very light difference here. But nonetheless, our model is higher on the Bills than the oddsmakers at the outset. Getting two points is better than no points.
The model has been crushing on the Bills all season long. Frankly, if FPI had emotions, it would have felt mighty smug as the Bills obliterated the Patriots on Saturday night. In case you missed it, Josh Allen posted the best postseason QBR game in the metric's history -- dating back to 2006.
One game does not make a Super Bowl contender. But this has been simmering for a long time, which is why FPI was so high on Buffalo. That the Bills didn't win a single one-score game all year -- which, if we're comparing to their record or reputation, is actually a good sign -- they mostly lost close and won big. They rank first in defensive EPA per play and fourth in the same category on offense. They're playing like the best team in football -- which is exactly what FPI thinks they are.
Not that the Chiefs aren't a mighty foe. There's a chance the winner of this game reaches the Super Bowl and it will be this divisional round matchup that is their toughest this postseason.
But even with everything the Chiefs have going for them -- from Patrick Mahomes to Andy Reid to Travis Kelce to Tyreek Hill to Chris Jones to Tyrann Mathieu to stellar rookies Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith and stalwart guard Joe Thuney -- they still haven't been as good as the Bills this year. Kansas City has been slightly better offensively and substantially worse defensively. All FPI is saying is that, 18 games in, let's trust what these teams have shown us. With the Chiefs at home, this is an almost perfectly even matchup.
FPI's side: Bills +2
Futures
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl (+500)
FPI projection: 23% (+327)
It's futures déjà vu all over again. Last week we liked the Bucs at +800 to win the Super Bowl. One blowout over the Eagles later and the market has shorter odds on Tampa Bay to repeat as champions ... but so does FPI.
Part of the reason that the market respects the Bucs less than FPI is surely the absences of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, plus the possibility that Tristan Wirfs -- who was knocked out of Sunday's win against the Eagles -- might miss time. At the same time, the Bucs offense looked pretty good (especially early) against Philadelphia! Plus, the Bucs got back defenders Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett, who missed the last couple of weeks, and had a very strong showing defensively this week.
Tampa Bay is very much a threat to repeat. In fact, now that they have the same number of games between them and the Lombardi Trophy as the Packers, FPI now makes the Bucs the favorites.
Early divisional round playoff lines
(As of 11 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Saturday
(4) Cincinnati Bengals at (1) Tennessee Titans (-3, 47), 4:30 p.m. ET
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Green Bay Packers (-5, 47.5), 8:15 p.m. ET
Sunday
(5) Arizona Cardinals OR (4) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3 p.m. ET
(3) Buffalo Bills at (2) Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 54), 6:30 p.m. ET