The NFL's wild-card weekend for the 2021 season is over, and good riddance to it. Four of the six games were decided long before the start of the fourth quarter, including the Los Angeles Rams' victory Monday night over the Arizona Cardinals. The good news, of course, is that we're all set for what should be a much more competitive set of divisional-round matchups.
It's never too early to start looking ahead, and so what follows is a first glance at the upcoming divisional games. We know that we'll see three rematches of regular-season games -- 49ers-Packers, Bills-Chiefs and Rams-Buccaneers -- as well as a matchup between the Bengals and Titans. The winners of each game will advance to the conference championship games.
Let's explore how each team can win next week, identify the biggest things to watch for in each game, name an X factor who could impact the outcomes and update each franchise's chances to reach -- and win -- Super Bowl LVI.
Note: Odds and game lines are via Caesars Sportsbook. Predictions are from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Jump to:
SF-GB | LAR-TB
CIN-TEN | BUF-KC
Super Bowl chances
NFC
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Green Bay Packers
8:15 p.m. ET, Saturday, Jan. 22, Fox
Opening line: Packers -5 (47.5)
FPI prediction: Packers, 64.6% (by 4.9 points)
What to watch for: This game will spark shivers for Packers fans, if not the Packers themselves. The 49ers have knocked them out of the playoffs three times since 2012 -- and two of the games have been ugly. The 49ers rushed for 323 yards in a 45-31 victory in the 2012 season, and then had 285 rushing yards in a 37-20 win in January 2020. In between, the 49ers also bested the Packers 23-20 on a frigid 5-degree day at Lambeau Field in the 2014 wild-card round. Every year is a separate story, and the Packers beat the 49ers 30-28 in Week 3 this season. But the recent history of this playoff series will loom large over the next week.
Why the Packers will win: Put simply, the Packers were the NFL's steadiest and most complete team all season after their bizarre blowout loss in Week 1 to the Saints. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been the league's best player, and perhaps his best moment of the season came on a six-play, 37-second drive to get into position for the 51-yard Mason Crosby field goal that beat the 49ers in Week 3. Plus, the two teams' rosters and depth are going in opposite directions. The Packers are expected to get left tackle David Bakhtiari back in the lineup, and potentially cornerback Jaire Alexander and pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith as well. On the other hand, the 49ers had a number of key injuries in Sunday's victory over the Cowboys, including pass-rusher Nick Bosa (concussion) and linebacker Fred Warner (ankle).
Why the 49ers will win: As they did in their previous postseason victories over the Packers, the 49ers have a chance to get their running game going. Don't be fooled by the fact that the Packers' defense allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards during the regular season; their opponents' 221 rushes were the second fewest faced in the NFL this season. The Packers' average of 4.6 rushing yards allowed per carry ranked No. 22 in the NFL. The 49ers used their running game to great success Sunday against the Cowboys, getting 96 yards from Elijah Mitchell and 72 yards from receiver/running back Deebo Samuel in the 23-17 win. It stands to reason that the 49ers will need some plays from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to pull off the upset, but a strong running attack will lessen the pressure on him.
X factor: Packers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell. People outside of Green Bay might have been surprised to see Campbell on last week's All-Pro list. But Campbell was legitimately one of the best linebackers in football this season, making him and his one-year contract one of the best signings in the history of free agency. The 49ers' offense does a lot of damage at the second level, be it in the running game or through the air. The Niners ranked No. 9 in the NFL during the regular season with 1,224 passing yards on throws of 10 or fewer yards past the line of scrimmage. That's exactly where Campbell operates, and the Packers will need him to lead their efforts to slow down the 49ers' offense.
(4) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 p.m. ET, Sunday, Jan. 23, NBC
Opening line: Buccaneers -3 (48)
FPI prediction: Buccaneers, 66.0% (by 5.4 points)
What to watch for: In the team's regular-season matchup, a 34-24 Rams victory in Week 3, the Rams threw 22 passes and ran the ball 10 times while building a halftime lead, and then blew the game open with a 75-yard touchdown pass in the first minute of the third quarter. Let's just say things have changed a bit since then. The recipient of that long throw was receiver DeSean Jackson, who is no longer with the team. And the Rams are not quite the downfield passing team they were earlier in the year, even after signing receiver Odell Beckham Jr. In Monday night's 34-11 win over the Cardinals, in fact, the Rams called designed runs on 65% of their first-quarter plays, their highest such percentage of the season. But you wouldn't think the Rams can beat the Buccaneers by running the ball. They'll need big passing plays from quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Why the Buccaneers will win: Tom Brady's teams have won nine consecutive divisional-round games, the longest such streak by a quarterback in a single playoff round in NFL history. Brady has lost only twice in the divisional round in his career (2010 against the Jets and 2005 to the Broncos), and his teams overall are 14-2 in the divisional round. Oh, by the way, he is 5-0 in the playoffs as the Buccaneers' starter. None of that history will directly impact the outcome of this game, of course. But it's a longish way of illustrating the Buccaneers' advantage whenever teams are so much as close to evenly matched in a playoff environment. A quarterback who knows how to win at this level can be the difference, as Brady has been on so many occasions before.
Why the Rams will win: The Rams have the kind of defensive formula that has caused trouble for Brady in the past. All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald remains at the top of his game, and he'll face a Bucs offensive line that suddenly has injury problems. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs (ankle) and center Ryan Jensen (foot) aren't expected to practice until Friday at the earliest. Donald had a sack and forced a fumble in the teams' regular-season game. We all know the way to slow down Brady (and many other quarterbacks) is to pressure him up the middle, and the Rams certainly have a chance to do that.
X factor: Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski. He will continue to be our X factor as long as his team is in the playoffs. His touchdown reception in Sunday's 31-15 wild-card win over the Eagles was his 15th in 21 postseason games with Brady, including two in the Super Bowl last season. The Rams' defense gave up 90 receptions to opposing tight ends during the regular season, No. 22 in the NFL. But those passes resulted in only four touchdowns, tied for the sixth fewest.
AFC
(4) Cincinnati Bengals at (1) Tennessee Titans
4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Jan. 22, CBS
Opening line: Titans -3 (47)
FPI prediction: Titans, 59.6% (by 3.2 points)
What to watch for: The Titans are on track to get back running back Derrick Henry, who hasn't played since breaking his right foot in Week 8. While they're certainly better with him than without him, it remains to be seen just how much he can impact this game. As ESPN's Bill Barnwell has noted, Henry wasn't nearly as efficient at the start of this season as he had been previously, perhaps a sign of long-term wear and tear from high workloads. On the other hand, the Bengals' run defense might not be as stout as you think. It has allowed the fifth-fewest total rushing yards this season, but that has also come on the fifth-fewest attempts by opponents. The Bengals' average of 4.3 yards allowed per rush ranks No. 13 in the NFL.
Why the Titans will win: The Titans are a battle-tested group. They were 6-2 when they lost Henry, and after an adjustment, they went 6-3 the rest of the way through the regular season. Seven of their wins came by one score, and their average margin of 3.8 points was the lowest for any division winner. Some would look at those numbers and conclude the Titans were closer to being a wild-card team, or perhaps even on the edge of the playoffs altogether, than being a true Super Bowl contender. But experience in such games is invaluable, and it will work to the Titans' advantage against a franchise that just won its first playoff game since 1990.
Why the Bengals will win: Quarterback Joe Burrow and receiver Ja'Marr Chase have taken their connection to a new height. Burrow has completed 79% of the passes he has thrown Chase's way in their past three games together. Those throws have produced averages of 14.9 yards per attempt and 169 yards per game, along with three touchdowns and no interceptions. If you thought they were locked in before that stretch, consider that Burrow completed only 53% of his passes to Chase in Weeks 8-15 of the regular season. And it's not like the throws have been high-percentage passes near the line of scrimmage. In Saturday's 26-19 victory over the Raiders, for example, Chase had five receptions that traveled at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. A hot quarterback-receiver connection can take over a game, and it's the most direct way for the Bengals to pull off an upset.
X factor: Titans receiver A.J. Brown. We're going to borrow from our initial playoff preview and renominate Brown, who played a huge role in three of the Titans' most impressive and important wins of the season. In victories over the Chiefs (Week 7), Colts (Week 8) and 49ers (Week 16), he caught a combined 26 passes for 433 yards and three touchdowns. With or without Henry in the lineup, the Titans are at their best when Brown is a central focus of their offense. In those three games, the Titans targeted him 38 times. The Bengals' pass defense ranked No. 20 in the NFL with a 49.6 opponent QBR, and it gave up 1,572 yards to wide receivers on passes of at least 10 yards through the air (No. 21 in the NFL).
(3) Buffalo Bills at (2) Kansas City Chiefs
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, Jan. 23, CBS
Opening line: Chiefs -2 (54.5)
FPI prediction: Bills, 52.1% (by 0.7 points)
What to watch for: The Bills crushed the Chiefs by a score of 38-20 in Week 5, one of the most eye-opening games of the Chiefs' 3-4 start to the season. Bills quarterback Josh Allen was dominant, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns while running for 59 yards and two more scores. But the Chiefs are in a much different place now. In their 9-1 finish to the regular season, the Kansas City defense ranked No. 7 in QBR against (39.5). The Chiefs' opponents threw more interceptions (15) than touchdown passes (12) and faced the NFL's sixth-highest pressure rate (30.7). Allen is coming off an excellent game in the wild-card round, but he'll face a more energetic defense in this one.
Why the Chiefs will win: There are many reasons to believe that a vintage version of quarterback Patrick Mahomes -- and the larger Chiefs offense -- has returned. Since Week 14, he has the NFL's best total QBR (76.2), having thrown 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions in six games, including Sunday night's 42-21 victory over the Steelers. The Chiefs have averaged 36.5 points per game over that stretch and have committed only four turnovers. When they are playing like that, few teams -- even the high-powered Bills -- can match them.
Why the Bills will win: Allen is coming off one of the few performances in his career that was clearly superior to what he did against the Chiefs earlier this season. He threw five touchdown passes in a dominating 47-17 win against the Patriots, getting all five of those scores on play-action plays -- the most of any player in any game since ESPN began tracking such throws in 2006. And guess what? Kansas City opponents had great success with play-action, totaling 1,545 passing yards (third most in the NFL) and compiling an NFL-best 80.2 QBR. In other words, Allen could be set up for another big outcome in the play-action game.
X factor: Chiefs pass-rushers Frank Clark, Chris Jones and Melvin Ingram III. The Chiefs are going to have to speed Allen up in the pocket, but they're going to have to do so within a structure that keeps him in the pocket. Allen actually ranks better among NFL passers when he is pressured (No. 4 by QBR) than he does when he is not (No. 11). When he is pressured and stays in the pocket, Allen had a 23.4 QBR during the regular season. When he got outside, however, his QBR was 64.6. The Bills are going to move the ball and score points, but the Chiefs can limit the damage by keeping Allen corralled.
Each team's chance to reach the Super Bowl
Buccaneers: 37.4%
Bills: 35.7%
Packers: 34.1%
Chiefs: 30.7%
Titans: 23.5%
Rams: 16.8%
49ers: 11.7%
Bengals: 10.1%
Each team's chance to win the Super Bowl
Buccaneers: 22.1%
Bills: 19.5%
Packers: 16.8%
Chiefs: 14.6%
Rams: 9.6%
Titans: 8.3%
49ers: 6.0%
Bengals: 3.1%