The NFL postseason is around the corner, but we still have one more full weekend of betting, starting with a doubleheader Saturday night.
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian (17-28-2, 1-2 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-31, 0-4), Joe Fortenbaugh (52-43-1, 5-1), Anita Marks (293-261, 15-20) and Erin Dolan (4-5, 1-1), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (138-131, 6-5), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (60-54, 0-0) and Mackenzie Kraemer (8-15, 1-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (30-30-1, 1-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (56-45, 2-3) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 17.)
Here are their best bets for Saturday's Week 18 doubleheader.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Chiefs-Broncos | Cowboys-Eagles
Saturday's best bets
Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 44.5) at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Moody: The Chiefs lost last week to the Bengals, as Joe Burrow torched them for 446 yards passing and four touchdowns. Expect Kansas City to bounce back on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs rank third in total yards (397.3) and fourth in points per game (28.3). Meanwhile, the Broncos' offense is below average, ranking 19th in total yards (328.4) and 23rd in points scored (19.4). Denver, which hasn't defeated the Chiefs since Week 2 of the 2015 regular season, will have Drew Lock at quarterback rather than Teddy Bridgewater (concussion protocol). Though the Broncos' offense has struggled this season, their defense has performed well and is tied for eighth in overall defense (322 yards per game). Denver has only hit the over twice in eight home games this season. We might see a lower scoring game than many expect.
Picks: Chiefs -10, under 44.5
Marks: The Chiefs can clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win and a Titans loss. They have a healthier roster than most, with the exception of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. If Darrel Williams gets the start, expect him to carry the bulk of the load. Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones has a bonus incentive of $1.25 million if he logs one more sack Sunday, so expect his ears to be pinned back and ready to attack. Denver will be without offensive lineman Dalton Risner and may have to start their third-string QB if Lock and Bridgewater cannot go, which plays into Jones' favor. The Broncos will also be missing some players in their secondary and could be using this game to evaluate talent for next season.
Pick: Under 50.5 in 6-point teaser with Cowboys -1
Dallas Cowboys (-7, 43) at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
Moody: Over the past three games, the Eagles' offense has averaged more total yards per game (391) than the Cowboys' (375.3). Since Jerry Jones has stated that the Cowboys will play to win, I doubt they will rest their players. Dallas has been favored by seven points or more six times this season and is 4-2 against the spread in those games. In addition, the Cowboys are 7-1 against the spread on the road. Dallas games have also averaged 50 total points, which is seven more than this matchup's over/under.
Picks: Cowboys -3.5, over 43
Fortenbaugh: Philadelphia is dealing with a COVID outbreak that saw 12 players placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday, including defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, center Jason Kelce, tight end Dallas Goedert, running backs Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, safety Rodney McLeod and cornerback Avonte Maddox, to name a few. Further, what's the motivation for the Eagles in this game? Philly has already clinched a playoff spot and there is no guarantee of improved playoff seeding with a win. Meanwhile, Dallas is off a bad loss to Arizona and should be motivated to get right before the start of the playoffs, having already gone 3-1 both straight and against the spread off a loss this season.
Pick: Cowboys -1 in 6-point teaser with Patriots -.5
Marks: Dallas currently holds the fourth seed in the NFC and will be playing to possibly elevate to the second or third seed. Head coach Mike McCarthy has said that Dallas will "play to win," and wants "momentum" heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys will be without Michael Gallup (ACL) and possibly Micah Parsons (COVID list). The Eagles have been hit hard by COVID this week, with 12 players testing positive. Expectations are that the Eagles will use this week as a bye week and rest players, considering they can do no better than the sixth seed. Gardner Minshew should get the start at QB if Jalen Hurts is inactive, and Kenneth Gainwell should see a lot of action out of the Eagles' backfield. Two words solidify the back end of my tease ... Jake Fromm.
Pick: Cowboys -1 in 6-point teaser with Washington -1