Intro by Doug Kezirian
With five games isolated individually on the television schedule, Christmas weekend offers NFL oddsmakers a chance to generate strong betting handles. However, as is the case with most 2021 storylines, COVID-19 is playing a major role.
"Normally in the NFL, you don't have to watch for things like this. You're just watching for sharp play and when you want to move the line or not. You don't have to worry about half the team being out," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "We had a couple games last week that I had never seen move that much this time of the year."
Some sportsbooks require a game be played on the scheduled day, or all bets are refunded. Other fine print allows for the game to be played within a week, as long as the venue is unchanged. Still, as is always the case, bettors are ready to pounce as soon as information surfaces.
"If you get caught snoozing on this, you're liable to have more than one bet - like a thousand bets. You got to just stay on top of this more so now than ever before," Avello said.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (16-25-2, 0-2 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-27, 2-3), Joe Fortenbaugh (43-40-1, 3-4), Anita Marks (260-218, 33-19) and Erin Dolan (2-2, 2-2 last week), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (118-117, 6-12), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (59-50, 2-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (7-14, 1-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (28-26-1, 1-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (50-40, 3-3) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 15.)
Here are their best bets for Sunday's Week 16 games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Browns-Packers | Colts-Cardinals | Lions-Falcons | Ravens-Bengals | Bills-Patriots | Bucs-Panthers | Chargers-Texans | Rams-Vikings | Giants-Eagles | Jaguars-Jets | Bears-Seahawks/a> | Steelers-Chiefs | Broncos-Raiders | WFT-Cowboys
Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET game
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, 46.5)
Moody: Together, Dallas and Washington average 48.8 points per game. This exceeds the over/under. Cowboys games have topped the over 43% of the time this season.
Pick: Over 46.5
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42.5)
Marks: Seattle is coming off a rescheduled Tuesday night game and has to suit back up on a short work week after a loss against a divisional opponent. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense have been struggling (55% completion percentage in Week 15), where Justin Fields has been playing better as of late. David Montgomery should get a heavy workload on Sunday, especially in the passing game where Seattle struggles against receiving backs.
Pick: Bears +12.5 in 6-point teaser with Bills-Pats under 49.5, Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, 45)
Moody: Chiefs games have gone over 45 points 58% of the time this season. The combined points per game for the Chiefs and Steelers is 48.3, which is higher than the over/under.
Pick: Over 45
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Even, 41)
Schatz: The Broncos have some very strange splits in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. How can a team that ranks second in the NFL in points allowed per game also rank 21st in defensive DVOA? A big part of it is that the Broncos slow games down and play fewer drives. Their defense is last in the league facing only 136 drives so far this year, and the offense is also near the bottom of the league with 140 drives. So a good offense and bad defense instead look like a bad offense and good defense when we look at points scored and allowed instead of per-play efficiency. I say "good offense," but of course that's the offense with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback instead of Drew Lock. Nonetheless, even with Lock under center, I'm taking the over on this game. My position that Denver's defense has been overrated may be controversial, but the position that the Raiders are better on offense (18th in DVOA) than defense (26th) certainly is not. This is a really low over/under, especially considering the first game between these teams in October had a total of 58 points.
Pick: Over 41
Walder: Courtland Sutton's production has taken a massive dip since Jerry Jeudy returned to the field, but this line's drop is a little extreme. It's probably a fair number if we assumed Sutton's production since Week 8 when Jeudy returned would continue at the same rate. But three factors scream positive regression for me: Sutton has still played over 80% of the snaps in all but one of those games since Week 8, he's a good receiver and Lock is starting this week for an injured Bridgewater. All of that together makes me think the median outcome for Sutton is stronger than this line suggests.
Pick: Sutton over 26.5 receiving yards (-130)
Moody: Sutton led the Broncos in targets last week with seven against the Bengals. He has been put on the back burner since Jeudy returned in Week 8. In his last seven games, Sutton has accumulated 12 receptions and 131 receiving yards. Sutton's reunion with Lock this week against a weak Raiders defense could be a blessing in disguise. He may actually see an increase in targets and statistical production.
Since Week 9, Josh Jacobs has had an average of 18 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets). Jacobs had only averaged 2.6 targets per game between 2019 and 2020, so his 5.6 targets per game is even more impressive. The Raiders' offensive line, which ranks 30th in run block win rate, is evenly matched against the Broncos' defensive line, which ranks 29th in run stop win rate. Jacobs should benefit from this matchup.
Picks: Sutton over 26.5 receiving yards (-130), Jacobs over 54.5 rushing yards (-120), Jacobs over 23.5 receiving yards (-115)
Saturday's games
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7, 44.5), 4:30 p.m. ET
Bearman: Last week's one-point win was not as close as it appeared, as the Packers led by 14 with less than five minutes left. Up until that point, Green Bay had dominated yardage and time of possession and still finished about even in both. Tyler Huntley did his thing late as the Packers sat back in prevent defense and allowed it to happen, almost resulting in a loss. It was still only their third ATS loss in 14 games this season, and it should've been a cover. The end of that game will be a lesson learned for Matt LaFleur's troops, knowing they almost blew one.
With the NFC North wrapped up, Green Bay has its sights set on the top seed and first-round bye, with the NFC playoffs going through Lambeau, where the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS and SU this season. As for the Browns, sure they are getting their COVID players back this week, but they are also on short rest after playing Monday night. They have shown absolutely no consistency this season, and other than wins over division rivals Baltimore and Cincy, have beaten no one of significance this season. The offense is averaging 13.6 PPG over the last six weeks, just ahead of the Giants and Jags at the bottom of the league. Not exactly the recipe for keeping up with MVP-favorite Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense. I am going to keep rolling on the Packers as I have all season. Plus, I have NFC North money to play with.
Pick: Packers -7
Fortenbaugh: This is a brutal spot for a Browns squad that has to play a road Saturday game at Lambeau Field five days after losing a home Monday matchup to the Raiders. Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 both straight up and against the spread at home this season, winning those contests by an average of 13.6 points per game. Additionally, I think the Packers come out on high alert Saturday, given the fact they watched a 31-17 fourth quarter lead at Baltimore last Sunday nearly turn into a 32-31 loss had the Ravens succeeded on their end-of-game two-point conversion.
Pick: Packers -1 in 6-point teaser with Bills +8.5
Schatz: The Browns are sixth in offensive DVOA in the first quarter of games before dropping to 15th the rest of the way. They do a good job on the scripted plays that start the game and should have Baker Mayfield back off the COVID list to start this one on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Packers are just 19th in offensive DVOA in the first quarter before becoming the best offense in the league from the second quarter onward. Both defenses have been poor in the first quarter. I'm going to take a shot here at the first-quarter spread and take the Browns to keep it close early before the Packers pull away.
Pick: Browns first quarter +3 (-120)
Marks: The Browns are not out of the COVID woods yet and are still trying to get back on their feet. Myles Garrett is dealing with a groin injury and has a 50% chance to play at Lambeau on Saturday. The Packers are arguably the best team in the NFL, especially at home, where they are 6-0 ATS, have led during 70% of their offensive snaps, lead the league in time of possession per drive (over 3 minutes) and have the lowest turnover rate. That about checks all the boxes for a win!
Aaron Jones is dealing with a knee injury, so I expect AJ Dilllon to get more carries, especially if the Packers are playing with a lead. Marquez Valdez-Scantling is out due to COVID, so Allen Lazard now becomes Rodger's No. 2 wideout. And, fun fact, Davante Adams is a Christmas baby, so anticipate another TD as a gift to all of us who have him in fantasy. That would be his sixth straight game with a touchdown!
Pick: Packers -1 in 6-point teaser with Colts +7, Dilllon over 46.5 rushing yards (-110)
Moody: Aaron Rodgers is averaging 325.2 passing yards per game over the Packers' last four contests. In addition to the veteran quarterback's vast experience, he has as a top target Adams, who is among the best wide receivers in the league and averages 96 receiving yards per game. Injuries and COVID-19 questions plague the Browns secondary right now, and the Packers will take advantage.
For the first time since returning from his knee injury, Aaron Jones played a large number of snaps for the Packers last week. Josh Jacobs, Devonta Freeman (played Cleveland twice), D'Andre Swift, and Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 81 rushing yards per game against the Browns over the last five games.
Picks: Rodgers over 258.5 passing yards (-115), Jones over 49.5 rushing yards (+100)
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (PK, 49.5), 8:15 p.m. ET
Schatz: The angle here is to take more recent games over the full-season results. That's what we do with our weighted DVOA ratings, which are still counting every game of the season so far but give more weight to games in the last couple of months. Those ratings have Indianapolis up to sixth in the league while the Cardinals rank 11th -- and would still rank 11th even if we took the three games with Colt McCoy at quarterback out of their offensive rating. The Cardinals offense is definitely having problems without DeAndre Hopkins to depend on. No longer can broken down plays just depend on "Kyler run around and then chuck it up to Hopkins to win one-on-one." But defense is where the Cardinals have really fallen in recent weeks. They were second in defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-9 but are 15th in Weeks 10-15. And the Cardinals have a top-10 run defense by DVOA but rank 26th in adjusted line yards against runs up the middle. If Craig Reynolds sliced and diced them last week, what is Jonathan Taylor going to do?
Pick: Colts to win
Kezirian: I think there has been too much of an overreaction to last week's games. Yes, Indy looked strong over New England, but the Patriots' shine was about to fade. It was a bit of smoke and mirrors. There is no excuse for Arizona losing to Detroit, but games like that do happen over the course of a long season. I actually think it makes for a strong effort in the next game. I think we get Arizona with a cheap price, and I still don't trust Carson Wentz.
Pick: Cardinals to win
Dolan: The lookahead line for this game on December 17 was Arizona -3.5. This line was bet down to Arizona -1 Sunday night after the Cardinals were upset 30-12 by the Lions.
Both teams are 9-5 ATS this season, but I prefer to bet on the money line when the spread line is so short. I am betting the Cardinals money line (-118). The Cardinals have lost two straight games with Kyler Murray not looking 100%, so why would I back the Cardinals over a Colts team that has won five of their last six games?
Everyone is counting the Cardinals out. The talk of the town is that the Cardinals will fold just like last season, but I will not count them out just yet. Arizona cannot play worse than they did in their defeat to the Lions.
The Cardinals' game plan will be to shut down Taylor, who leads the league with 1,518 rushing yards. Indy is 8-0 when Taylor rushes for 100-plus yards. This is no easy feat, as the Cardinals are tied for 17th defensively against the rush (112.8 YPG). The Cardinals defense is going to have to do everything, quite literally, in their power to stop him. Arizona's defense ranks third in efficiency (66.01) and fifth in points allowed per game (20.29). Carson Wentz, a.k.a the "game manager," in my opinion will be limited against an Arizona defense that ranks fifth against the pass, allowing 210 yards per game.
I believe this will be a close game and ultimately a bounce-back game for Arizona against a Colts defense that ranks 12th in efficiency (54.03),15th against the pass (234.1) and 14th against the rush (109.6). I'm sticking with my guns here and going Cardinals money line. Hopefully this pick does not ruin my Christmas night.
Pick: Arizona ML
Marks: The Colts have scored 90 more points than their opponents in the first half this season. Kudos to an excellent first quarter script by Frank Reich. The Cardinals have trailed for 85% of their offensive snaps their last two games, and Kyler Murray finished his matchup with the Lions last week with a below 60% completion percentage. The Colts defense is better than the Lions' and has the second-fewest scoring rate against opposing backfields. Taylor should continue his touchdown streak of 11 straight games against an Arizona team allowing 4.5 yards per carry to running backs. Hopkins is on the shelf, and Rondale Moore is dealing with an ankle injury, so expect an uptick in targets for both Zach Ertz and Antoine Wesley. The weakest part of the Colts' defense is through the air and will be the only way Murray and crew stay lock and step.
Pick: Colts first-quarter ML (-105), Colts halftime ML (-105), Taylor scores game's first TD (+310), Ertz over 4.5 receptions (+110)
Moody: Since Week 8, T.Y. Hilton has not topped 30 receiving yards in five straight starts. But it may be necessary for Indianapolis to throw more in a matchup with an Arizona offense that averages the eighth-most total yards (376.4) and points per game (27). Carson Wentz was atrocious against the Patriots, going 4-of-12 for 57 yards. For the Colts to stay competitive with the Cardinals, he will have to play much better. Wentz is likely to bounce back. Michael Pittman Jr also has a good shot at success. Over the last five games against Arizona, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp, Jakeem Grant, Tyler Lockett and Robby Anderson have averaged 85.4 receiving yards per game.
With the loss of Hopkins, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green should see a bump in targets for the Cardinals. Last week against the Lions, they combined for 20 targets and 158 receiving yards. Ertz will also find success against a Colts defense that allows tight ends the third-highest share of targets in the league. Kirk, Green and Ertz should get all the targets they can handle, as Moore is a game-time decision.
Picks: Hilton over 22.5 receiving yards (+100), Wentz over 209.5 passing yards (-115), Taylor over 14.5 receiving yards (-115), Pittman over 59.5 receiving yards (-115), Kirk over 58.5 receiving yards (-115), Green over 51.5 receiving yards (-115), Ertz over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 42.5)
Schatz: I feel like a broken record in consistently picking against the Falcons, but overall play-by-play performance is a better predictor of future performance than simple win-loss record. Because they've had such huge losses to good opponents, the Falcons rank dead last in DVOA despite being 6-8. Now, certainly Detroit is not one of those good opponents. This seems like one of those bad opponents that the Falcons keep beating in close victories. But the Lions have their own pattern of close games and are 9-5 against the spread this season. Poring over all the stats, it's hard to find some sort of secret strength where either the Falcons or the Lions are above average. If you have two equally bad teams, you take the one getting the points. And these teams aren't even equally bad by DVOA, as the Lions rank 29th, three spots ahead of Atlanta.
Pick: Lions +5.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 45)
Dolan: Baltimore is starting to face COVID issues as I write this analysis, so keep that in mind. I do not like Baltimore +2.5, but I like the line at +3. You simply just can't ignore when Baltimore is listed as an underdog. Baltimore is 13-1 ATS as an underdog since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, including 4-0 ATS in that span when Lamar Jackson does not start. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Division games are competitive, especially when the No. 1 spot in the AFC North is up for grabs. Side note: I do recall the Bengals blowing out the Ravens 41-17 on October 24, but the stakes are much different for this game. This is a must-win for the Ravens if they want to make the postseason, with the AFC having 13 teams .500 or better with three weeks remaining. The Ravens have also lost the conference record tiebreaker to all 8-6 teams and the common record tiebreaker to the Bills.
The Ravens' time of possession and opponents time of possession ranks No.1 in the league, so they are going to try and take control for the majority of this game. I expect Jackson to be under center helping a Ravens offense that ranks third in rushing yards per game (144.6).
Both defenses are good against the run but mediocre against the pass. Baltimore's defense ranks No. 1 in opponent rushing yards per game (86.2), while Cincinnati's defense ranks fourth against the rush (95.9). Baltimore's pass defense ranks 31st (264.5 YPG), while Cincinnati pass defense ranks 26th (249.5 YPG).
Baltimore will be able to slow down the Bengals and control the game. I am not saying they win outright, but I am all for grabbing the Ravens at +3 as long as COVID does not run through their team.
Pick: Ravens +3
Moody: Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are in a great position to bounce back against the Ravens defense. Over the last five games against Baltimore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jarvis Landry (played twice against the Ravens), Diontae Johnson and Darnell Mooney averaged 95 receiving yards per game. On the road against Baltimore in Week 7, Joe Burrow threw for 416 yards. He faces the Ravens at home this week.
Picks: Higgins over 65.5 receiving yards (-110), Chase over 62.5 receiving yards (+100)
Walder: Coming back to my favorite bet of the season: Ja'Marr Chase unders. Chase so vastly exceeded his target opportunity early in the year that these lines were seriously inflated. Now? It's just a little high relative to his expected receiving yards per game of 49.8. Do Baltimore's injuries give me pause? A little bit. But there's enough of a difference between his yardage expectation per game and this line for me to go for it.
Pick: Chase under 62.5 receiving yards (-130)
Marks: Jackson has not practiced since his Week 14 ankle injury, so I do not expect him to play this week against the Bengals. The Ravens' defense has been struggling, allowing an NFL high 16 touchdowns from outside the red zone, and the Bengals lead the NFL with 18 touchdowns from outside the red zone. The Ravens' blitz rate is one of the highest in the NFL, and Burrow thrives against the blitz. I expect Burrow and the Bengals offense to have a lot of success with their aerial attack this week.
Pick: Bengals -3, Burrow over 21.5 completions (-140), Chase over 62.5 receiving yards (+100)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-2.5, 43.5)
Walder: Since 2018, running backs have recorded receptions against Cover-1 on just 9% of dropbacks, lowest among all coverages run by defenses around the league at least 5% of the time. The Patriots have run Cover-1 42% of the time this season, second-highest among all teams. They also run Cover-2 -- the major coverage most likely to produce running back receptions -- at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. As a result, I'm fading Devin Singletary in the pass game.
On the flip side, I'm buying Emmanuel Sanders. He's working his way back from injury, but if he plays he won't be competing with Cole Beasley for targets with Beasley on the COVID-19 list. And Sanders' expected receiving yards per game this season -- based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats -- is 46.4, well above this line already.
Pick: Singletary under 12.5 receiving yards (-120), Sanders over 30.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Bills and Patriots sport two of the best defenses this season, both ranking in the top two in yards allowed per passing play. Both Josh Allen and Mac Jones will have a tough go at it on Sunday, as the Patriots held Josh Allen to 56% completions in their first game a few weeks back. Jones will face a Bills defense that is second-best in pressure rate. Singletary has earned the lead back role for the Bills, and they should rely on him to establish the run for a more balanced offensive attack.
Pick: Under 43.5, Singletary over 11.5 carries (-150), Sanders over 3.5 receptions (-120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 44) at Carolina Panthers
Bearman: Last week in this column, I nailed that Tom Brady would continue to struggle vs. the Saints, and the Bucs lost outright. Something about that Saints defense has gotten him all four times in the regular season. Since joining Tampa, he hasn't had the same struggles vs. Carolina, winning both games last year, completing 68.9% of his passes for 558 yards, four TDs and one interception. However, laying a big number like 11 is tough with all his weapons hurt. WR Chris Godwin and RB Leonard Fournette are out, and WR Mike Evans is questionable with a hamstring injury. We all saw in the second half Sunday night that Brady had nothing to work with, getting shut out for the first time in 15 years.
As for the Panthers, they have been nothing short of awful since Cam Newton took over at QB, going 0-4 (straight up and ATS), scoring 16.5 points per game and averaging 276 yards per game, 29th in the league over this time. The combo of no weapons for Brady, two good defenses (Carolina is second, the Bucs are 12th in total yards) and Carolina having zero offense with Cam makes the under a safer play than laying 11 on the road with the injured Buccaneers. In addition, the under is 14-2 in Tom Brady starts as a double-digit road favorite since returning from injury in 2009, per our Stats & Information team. I do think they get right here and beat the fading Panthers to wrap up the NFC South, but I also think the total of 44 is more of a Brady effect than anything.
Pick: Under 44
Fortenbaugh: The Panthers are an absolute mess right now, having dropped nine of their last 11 outings while scoring just 18.3 points per game in the process. For the season, Carolina ranks 25th in scoring, 27th in third-down conversions and 31st in yards per play. Look for the Buccaneers to lean on a defensive unit that ranks fifth in the league in opponent yards per play thanks to the injuries sustained at wide receiver (Chris Godwin, ACL) and running back (Leonard Fournette, hamstring). Additionally, wide receiver Mike Evans is battling a hamstring injury and will be less than 100 percent if he's able to play on Sunday.
Pick: Under 44
Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5, 45.5) at Houston Texans
Fortenbaugh: Houston games are averaging a grand total of just 41.3 points per contest this season, thanks, in large part, to an anemic offense that ranks 31st in scoring and last in yards per play. On the flip side, the Chargers are averaging a somewhat respectable 22.8 points per game on the road this season but could get caught playing down to their competition here. After all, LA just lost a brutal overtime matchup against division rival Kansas City and will conclude the regular season with back-to-back divisional showdowns against Denver (home) and Las Vegas (road). No style points here. Get in, get the job done and go home.
Pick: Under 45.5
Marks: Justin Herbert should have a field day against a Texans defense that is allowing over 7.5 yards per passing attempt. Austin Ekeler was placed on the COVID-19 list, so look for Justin Jackson to step up and have a larger role with a very favorable matchup.
Pick: LAC -3.5 (2-team teaser with Eagles -4), Jackson over 61.5 rushing yards (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 49.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Dolan: It's a short week for both teams. The Rams beat the Seahawks on Tuesday, while the Vikings beat the Bears on Monday Night Football. Vikings star running back Dalvin Cook has been ruled out for this game due to COVID health and safety protocols, which makes me immediately want to back the Rams before this line moves out. As soon as one player tests positive on a team, there is a domino effect. The Browns in Week 15 are a testament to that, while the Rams game was postponed to Tuesday due to their own COVID outbreak last week.
In terms of Rams -3, the trends point to the Vikings covering. Minnesota is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog under Mike Zimmer, while Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite with Matthew Stafford 2-4 ATS as a road favorite this season. But one important note when betting is that trends don't factor in star players being ruled out due to health and safety protocols, and even worse, the potential for more players to be ruled out.
On paper, the Rams are better than the Vikings. The Rams rank third in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency. Plus, Stafford and company rank fourth in passing yards per game (282) and face a Vikings pass defense that ranks 29th, allowing 252 passing yards per game. The Rams get it done and cover.
Pick: Rams -3
Marks: There are three sure things in life: death, taxes, and Cooper Kupp having double-digit targets. This week he faces a Vikings secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing over 270 passing yards per game.
Pick: Kupp over 8. 5 receptions (+100),
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 40.5)
Walder: No matter who is at quarterback for the Giants, FPI believes this is just too many points for the Eagles -- a decidedly mediocre team with a +0.2 rating that indicates they are almost literally average -- to be laying. With Mike Glennon as a starter it would set this line at just Eagles -5.5, and it would be similar with Jake Fromm, too. Is the model underestimating the difference between Daniel Jones and Glennon/Fromm? I think it's possible. But there's such a large gap between us and the line that even if we were to throw in some wiggle room the Giants still appear a clear buy.
Pick: Giants +10
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5, 41.5)
Bearman: Despite all the parity in the NFL, there are still a whole bunch of bad football teams, including these two. And when two bad teams, especially two bad offenses, get together, I like to play the unders. In the last eight weeks, since returning from London, the Jags are averaging 10 points per game, easily the worst in football. They've crossed the end zone line a whopping eight times in eight games and didn't get a TD in their lone win, a 9-6 befuddling victory over the Bills. For the season, they are averaging 14 PPG, taking over the basement that the Texans held all year. Now with an NFL-worst 2-12 record, all signs point to the top pick in next year's draft again.
The Jets, while having a marginally better offense than the Jags, come in averaging 17.9 points per game, 27th in the league. They also have 15 players on the COVID list, as well as head coach Robert Saleh. Related or not, we saw the Browns and Saints both struggle to score without their head coach. In their last six games, the Jets have scored 20 points twice, once vs. the Texans and again last week vs. Miami, aided by a late pick-six. The Jags have done it zero times during that span. If neither team crosses 20 points, you aren't getting to 42. Three Jags games have gone over all season, and two of them were against the Texans. If you feel comfortable picking a side, by all means, do it. For me, there's just not a lot of great players on the field for this one, which leads me to the under.
Pick: Under 41.5
Marks: Urban Meyer is gone, which now allows James Robinson to eat. Last week, Robinson had 23 touches for 88 yards and a score. The Jets are a juicy matchup for him after allowing Duke Johnson -- of the practice squad! -- to rush for over 120 yards. The Jets have been hit hard by COVID-19 this week, and head coach Robert Salah won't even be on the sidelines. This should be a win for the Jaguars.
Pick: Robinson over 75.5 rushing yards (-130)