Intro by Doug Kezirian
With New Year's Eve visitors and college bowl games peaking on Friday and Saturday, the Week 17 NFL card could produce the highest betting handle of the entire season. Sportsbooks are certainly bracing for it.
"We just have a lot of people in town and everyone is football-crazy right now. You also have that big slate on Sunday," South Point casino sportsbook director Chris Andrews told ESPN, referencing the 15-game day since the NFL did not have a Thursday night game this week. "I hate to make that prediction [of the season's largest handle] but I think it's going to be really, really strong."
The Dallas Cowboys (-6) host the Arizona Cardinals in the afternoon's marquee game, but the matchup has lost some luster. The Cardinals have lost three straight and are currently a 5-seed, while Dallas has won and covered four straight.
"The Cowboys looked fantastic last week but they've had their ups and downs," Andrews said. "The Cardinals are definitely on a downward trend but I think they'll attract some money. And I think we'll have some Arizona people in town too."
The Cowboys own the top cover percentage at 12-3 ATS.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (16-26-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-27, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (47-42-1, 4-2), Anita Marks (278-241, 18-23) and Erin Dolan (3-4, 1-2 last week), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (132-126, 14-9), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (60-54, 1-4) and Mackenzie Kraemer (7-14, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (29-28-1, 1-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (54-42, 4-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 15.)
Here are their best bets for Sunday's Week 17 games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Dolphins-Titans | Falcons-Bills | Giants-Bears | Chiefs-Bengals | Raiders-Colts | Jaguars-Patriots | Buccaneers-Jets | Eagles-WFT | Rams-Ravens | Broncos-Chargers | Texans-49ers | Cardinals-Cowboys | Panthers-Saints | Lions-Seahawks | Vikings-Packers
Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET game
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7, 46.5) - pre-Kirk Cousins news
Kezirian: With trepidation, I am backing the Vikings. I am a bit uneasy because it involves Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers has a chance to cement the MVP award in prime time. However, this is a capable Minnesota squad that actually beat the Pack earlier this season. Plus, 14 of Minnesota's 15 games this season have been decided by one score. I think the Packers are better, but this line feels too high.
Pick: Vikings +7
Fortenbaugh: Pick your favorite angle when it comes to the Packers in Week 17 because there are plenty to choose from. For starters, Rodgers is a ridiculous 25-12 ATS lifetime at home against NFC North opposition (67.5%). Additionally, Green Bay is closing in on securing the top seed in the NFC, not to mention the fact that the Packers are out for a bit of revenge in this matchup after losing to the Vikings in Minnesota back on Nov. 21. Speaking of the Vikings, Minnesota is an underwhelming 3-5 on the road this season while permitting an average of 26.9 points per game (T-23rd in NFL).
Pick: Packers -7, Packers 6-point teaser (-1) with Chargers (-.5)
Marks: The Packers are looking to lock in the No. 1 seed in the NFC to make certain the road to Tinseltown runs through Lambeau Field. Rodgers at home, on prime time, against an NFC North opponent is the closest thing to a lock. The narrative around the Vikings is more about who is going to be the head coach next season than facing the Packers on Sunday night. Minnesota could be without both Tyler Conklin and Adam Thielen (ankle surgery) this week.
Pick: 2T6PT Packers -1.5 with Buccaneers -7, Lions +13 with Bears PK, St. Brown over 56.5 receiving yards
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 45)
Fortenbaugh: Big bounce-back spot for a Chargers squad that was humiliated by the lowly Texans in Houston last week. Ever since its 3-0 start, Denver has fallen off a cliff, losing eight of its past 12 outings while failing to cover the closing number in eight of those 12 contests. Take note that Denver ranks 23rd in the NFL in road scoring while the Bolts rank third in the league in home scoring.
Pick: Chargers +.5 in 2-team teaser with Packers
Moody: The Chargers will rely more on Austin Ekeler and their running game to assist their defense by improving their time of possession. They are allowing the 11th-most yards per game (363.8). In addition, Los Angeles allows the fourth-most rushing yards per game (140.3). Denver has one of the best running back tandems in the league in Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams. In this matchup, Justin Herbert will have all of his receiving playmakers available to him.
Pick: Broncos +5.5
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5, 44)
Bearman: This is a lot of points to lay for a Niners team that has questions at QB with Jimmy Garoppolo having an injured thumb and Trey Lance not being ready per his own head coach. Either way, the Niners' hot streak came to a stop last Thursday, allowing the Colts to come from behind and steal the win. Jimmy G was terrible in the second half, which might or might not be related to the thumb injury. I do not have a lot of trust here to lay 12.5. If it's Lance, well, he hasn't seen the field since early October, not redeeming value to want to lay nearly two TDs. The Texans are not a good football team and no one will argue with that. However, they have shown life of late, winning back-to-back games against Jacksonville and the playoff-contending Chargers, scoring 71 combined points. No one is going to confuse the Texans with a playoff-caliber team like the Niners, but the role of spoiler seems to fit them. They've won two games outright this season as double-digit underdogs (at Chargers and at Tennessee) and should be considered live here. It wasn't that long ago that we were talking about how Kyle Shanahan is not good as a favorite. I'll take the 12.5 while the Niners figure out who is playing QB.
Pick: Texans +12.5
Schatz: The Houston Texans' defense is ... not terrible? The Texans rank 18th in defensive DVOA this year, including 15th against the pass. That's one reason I think the Texans can cover this large spread. The other reason is that Davis Mills is playing better over his past four games. Houston has the worst offense in the league over the full season, but that improves to 23rd over the past four weeks. The Texans just need to basically give up on the run in this game to keep things close. They are in last place in run offense, while the San Francisco defense is 23rd against the pass but second against the run. It all suggests a late comeback and perhaps a back-door cover when the Texans are doing nothing but passing the ball in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Texans +12.5
Marks: Mills has developed into a solid quarterback this season. In his past four games, he is completing over 70% of his passes and averaging almost 8 yards per pass attempt. Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a thumb injury in his throwing hand, and if he cannot start, Lance will get the call.
Pick: Texans +12.5, 2T6PT +19.5 with Packers (1.5), Mills over 20.5 completions (-130)
Moody: The matchup has the potential to be much higher scoring than many anticipate. After playing last Thursday night, the 49ers should be healthy for this one. Elijah Mitchell is expected to return this week against the Texans from a knee injury. The 49ers have averaged 28.7 rushing attempts per game this season and could focus on the running game if Lance starts over Garoppolo. The spread seems too high, especially when you consider what Mills has averaged over his past three games -- 33.6 pass attempts, 264.7 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions. Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins have averaged 252.4 passing yards, 1.6 touchdowns and 0.4 interceptions against the 49ers' defense over the past five games.
Picks: Over 44 points, Texans +12.5
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 51.5)
Kezirian: Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and take the squarest play on the board. No recreational bettor will back Arizona, given the Birds are 0-3 SU and ATS in their past three games. Kyler Murray's demeanor looks off and there's not a whole lot right now to instill confidence. Meanwhile, Dallas looks as sharp as ever, now that the Cowboys are healthy. Based on how each team looked last week, we have to pay a tax ... but I am OK with it. The Cowboys have won and covered four straight and I expect both teams to continue along their current paths.
Pick: Cowboys -5.5
Marks: The Cards are 0-3 ATS their past three games, and will be without one of their best defensive players, Markus Golden, due to COVID-19 protocols. Meanwhile, Dallas is getting Tyron Smith back on its offensive line, and with Randy Gregory, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons all suiting up at the same time, one could argue Dallas has the best front seven in the league.
Pick: Cowboys -5.5, Murray Int (-155)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 38)
Moody: The Saints, with Taysom Hill back in the lineup, will face a Panthers defense that has been decimated by COVID-19. Due to COVID, New Orleans was without 20 players in a loss to the Dolphins on Monday night.
Pick: Saints -6.5
Marks: Taysom Hill is back in action for the Saints, after being placed on the leagues Covid protocols list, and will face a Panthers team that has been Covid compromised - especially on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina prides itself on an aggressive pass rush, but are expected to be without their lead rusher Brian Burns, as well as Shaq Thompson, as well as Stephon Gilmore in their secondary. This is a great spot start for Taysom.
Pick: Hill Over 1.5 TDs, Over 183.5 pass yds, over 48.5 rushing yards, Hubbard under 40.5 rushing yards
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 42.5)
Bearman: In the process of only winning two games on the season, the Lions are 10-5 ATS, behind only Green Bay and Dallas for best ATS records. Since their bye week, they tied the Steelers, knocked off the Vikings and Cardinals, and nearly beat the Browns and Bears. A 2-12-1 team is still a 2-12-1 team, but we aren't asking them to win, just cover, which they have done regularly this year. The offense, even with missing Jared Goff last week and no D'Andre Swift since Thanksgiving, has shown some life and found a star in the making in Amon-Ra St. Brown. The rookie has 35 catches in the past four games, becoming only the second rookie (Odell Beckham Jr.) this century to have 7+ receptions in four straight games. Meanwhile, Swift and Goff are back this week, giving the Lions more options to continue their recent solid play. On the other side, we have a Seahawks team riding out the rest of the season after being eliminated from the playoffs with a home loss to the Bears last week. Things are not pretty in the Emerald City as we get weekly updates from Pete Carroll on if this is a rebuild or rough patch. Regardless, Seattle is 3-8 in its past 11 and two of the wins are vs. Jacksonville and Houston. Other than the fact that the other team is wearing jerseys that say Lions, I do not understand why this is a TD line. Per Stats & Information's Mackenzie Kraemer, Seattle is the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorite despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. Each of the previous three lost the game outright, including Jacksonville in Week 15 against Houston this season. Exactly.
Pick: Lions +7
Fortenbaugh: Bottom line? Dan Campbell's Lions compete. Detroit is a profitable 10-5 ATS this season with five of its outright losses coming by four or fewer points. Pete Carroll's Seahawks used to compete, but those days appear to be long gone as Seattle has dropped eight of its past 11 contests and finds itself a shocking 2-5 at home this season. Motivation is a big factor this time of year, and I believe the Lions have it while the Seahawks are trying desperately to put this campaign in the rearview mirror.
Pick: Lions at +7
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 41)
Bearman: I am going to continue riding Dolphins unders. It is working for them and working for us. Six of the past eight Dolphins games have gone under the total and the two that didn't were by a half point vs. Carolina after Cam Newton gifted the Dolphins points, and two weeks ago vs. the Jets, where a pick-six late was the culprit. Miami's defense, as seen on Monday Night Football last week, is playing as good as anyone in the league, allowing a league-low 11.7 PPG over the past eight weeks. Yes, the Dolphins have not faced a stellar list of QBs other than Lamar Jackson, but the total QBR allowed is 17.6, 14 points lower than that of the next-best team in the league. Over this time, the defense also leads in yards per game allowed and defensive efficiency, and it's not even close. The unit is looking like 2020's top-five defense and the main reason for Miami's seven-game winning streak and current playoff standing. On the offensive side, Miami continues to run a dink-and-dunk, flag football-type offense, averaging 4.8 yards per play (30th), 3.39 rush yards per play (last) and 6.1 yards per pass (24th). Tua Tagovailoa leads the league with a 70.1 completion percentage and is 18th in yards per pass attempt, using short slants to Jaylen Waddle and dump-offs to RBs and TEs. Miami is playing an ultraconservative offense that is averaging only 20.1 PPG. Waddle is the offense and is five receptions shy of the NFL's rookie record for receptions in a season. He has 8 or more catches in four consecutive and in five of the past six games.
Tennessee, as you might expect, has been a different team since All-Pro RB Derrick Henry got injured in Week 8. Since then, Tennessee is averaging 16.7 PPG, 26th in football, and under 300 yards per game. The Titans' strength remains a ball-controlled ground game (fourth in NFL), but Miami's strength is stopping the run (seventh in NFL). A healthy A.J. Brown bolstered Tennessee to the win over San Francisco last week, but the Titans still scored only 20 points, which represents the most they have scored over the past five games.
This is a matchup of two conservative offenses that won't take many risks. Both have a lot on the line here, so expect this to continue. If Miami is going to continue its remarkable playoff run, it's going to be via defense, and if Tennessee is to clinch the AFC South, it's going to be through controlling the ball and avoiding mistakes against the opportunistic Miami defense.
Pick: Under 41
Marks: The Dolphins are on a roll, winning seven straight in large part to their defense, which since Week 7 has allowed opponents to score on less than 30% of their drives -- the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill will have a tough time against an aggressive Dolphins defense and how well it plays press coverage.
Pick: Dolphins +3.5, Dolphins 2T6PT +9.5 with the under 47, Tannehill INT (+100)
Moody: It will be a close game between the Titans and the Dolphins. The Titans will be well-rested after playing Thursday night in Week 16, and having Brown back helped tremendously. Tannehill will start against his former team for the first time. Former Bill Belichick assistants Brian Flores and Mike Vrabel will try to outdo each other in what will be a close game that ultimately comes down to a last-minute field goal by the Titans. The Dolphins have won seven straight games, but have done so against some of the league's worst quarterbacks.
Pick: Titans -3.5
Kraemer: While I'm not sold on the Dolphins during their seven-game winning streak, I'm even less sold on the Titans laying over a field goal. In their past five games, the Titans have failed to score more than 20 points, averaging the sixth-lowest offensive EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are in the top five in defensive efficiency on the season, so this is not a good get-right spot for the Titans' offense. Brown had a big game last week against the 49ers, but Miami's secondary is much stingier than San Francisco's. I think Miami can continue its defensive success against a struggling Titans offense. I don't see a big difference between these two teams, so I like getting over a field goal in a game with a total in the 30s.
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14.5, 44)
Moody: With the way Josh Allen is playing right now, maximizing his dual-threat ability, the Falcons' defense will be unable to contain the Bills' offense. The 25-year-old quarterback has had a game of 300 or more passing yards and 50 or more rushing yards five times in his career. Only Steve Young has more such games in league history with eight. The Bills' pass rush, currently ranked fifth in the league in pass rush win rate, should have no problem constantly pressuring Matt Ryan behind an offensive line that ranks 27th in pass block win rate. It should be easy for Buffalo's pass coverage to make Kyle Pitts disappear.
Pick: Bills -14.5
Marks Picks: Josh Allen over 1.5 TD (-190), over 258.5 yards, Singletary over 13.5 carries (-110), Singletary over 73.5 combined rushing/receiving yards
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6, 37.5)
Marks: The Giants plan to play a mix of both Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm according to situational downs. Both are equally as bad and neither better than all three quarterbacks the Bears have at their disposal. Expect a heavy dose of David Montgomery, who has rushed almost 40 times the past two weeks, and has recently become a larger part of the Bears' passing game.
Pick: Bears ML Parlay with Rams over Ravens, 2T6PT = Bears under 43.5 with Dolphins under 47, Montgomery over 99.5 rushing and receiving yards, Barkley under 53.5 rushing yards.
Moody: In terms of total yards per game, both the Giants (303.5) and Bears (308) rank near the bottom. In terms of points scored per game, New York (16.5) and Chicago (17.7) are similar. This season, the Giants and Bears have both seen at least 60% of their games go under the total. This season, Chicago has five wins against the spread in its 15 games. Recently, the Bears have played better, with Montgomery playing a significant role. Over the past three games, he has averaged 23.7 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 90 total yards. The Bears' defensive front should have success against a Giants offensive line that ranks 25th in pass block win rate and is playing musical chairs at the quarterback position.
Picks: Under 37.5 points, Bears -6
Kansas City Chiefs (-5, 50) at Cincinnati Bengals
Fortenbaugh: Despite what we've seen from the Kansas City defense in recent weeks, this game has "shootout" written all over it in my humble opinion. Both offenses rank in the top seven in scoring and top five in yards per play, while the Cincinnati defense ranks an alarming 27th in points surrendered when playing at home (26.1).
Pick: Over 50 points
Dolan: This line continues to move in favor of Kansas City, off an opener of Chiefs -4. The Chiefs are 4-2 ATS on the road, compared to the Bengals' 3-5 ATS record at home. Kansas City has turned things around on offense and defense since its four losses toward the beginning of the season against the Ravens, Chargers, Bills and Titans, all potential playoff teams. The Chiefs rank third in offensive efficiency and second in passing yards per game, so Patrick Mahomes can have a field day against the Bengals' 29th-ranked pass defense. The Chiefs have improved on defense as well with a top five defense in points allowed.
While I have been impressed with what the Bengals have done this season, Cincy has some troubling losses, including a 34-31 loss to the Jets in Week 8. The Bengals followed that up with a 41-16 loss to the Browns, then after a pair of wins, got run off their own field in a 41-22 loss to the Chargers, and then again the following week in OT against the 49ers. Joe Burrow is coming off a historic week with over 500 passing yards and four touchdowns against a depleted Ravens team last week, so I expect this to be a classic let-down spot for a team that hasn't played well at home this season. I'm laying the points with the hot Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs -5
Moody: There will be a variety of playmakers on offense for the Chiefs and Bengals. Kansas City ranks fourth in points (28) and third in total yards (395.4) per game, while Cincinnati ranks seventh in points (27.3) and 12th in total yards (366) per game. This looks like a high-scoring affair, as both the Chiefs and Bengals have gone over 51 points 53.3% of the time this season.
Pick: Over 50 points
Kezirian: I am not buying that Kansas City all of a sudden has an elite defense. It's been a nice turnaround during this eight-game win streak, but Cincy will present the biggest challenge, aside from the Chargers. And you might recall that Los Angeles had three drives stall inside the 10-yard line on downs. Either way, I trust Burrow & Co. to light up the scoreboard to surpass the team total, but I don't trust Cincy's defense to take the Bengals on the side.
Pick: Bengals over 23.5 points (+100)
Marks: The Bengals manhandled the Ravens last week, but the Chiefs are a totally different animal. Over the past seven games, the Chiefs have the lowest turnover rate, and defensively are forcing the most turnovers. Ja'Marr Chase saw 10 targets last week, and will have the more favorable matchup against the Ravens' secondary. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out this week, Darrel Williams will step in as the lead back, but Derrick Gore should get his share of touches as well, especially in the passing game.
Pick: Chiefs ML Parlay with Cowboys over Cardinals, Ja'marr Chase over 69.5 rec yards
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 44.5)
Moody: There are significant playoff implications for the Raiders-Colts matchup, as Carson Wentz will likely be inactive due to COVID-19. Indianapolis can find success even with Sam Ehlinger under center relying heavily on Jonathan Taylor, the offensive line and the running game. This season, Taylor has averaged 23 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 130 total yards per game. Additionally, the league's top rusher runs behind an offensive line that ranks eighth in run block win rate. Against a Raiders defense without several key players who were placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday, Taylor should thrive. This group includes four linebackers, including Denzel Perryman and Cory Littleton, who are among the team's top tacklers. Taylor's dominance has helped the Colts go 8-1 ATS in their nine wins this season.
Pick: Colts -6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5, 41.5)
Moody: With a spread this wide, it's easy to fade. The Patriots are in an ideal position to cover. With 315.5 yards allowed per game, New England's defense is the third best in the league this season. Moreover, the Patriots are also ranked second in the league in weighted defensive DVOA, in sharp contrast to the Jaguars, who rank 26th. Additionally, New England's defense ranks fifth in run stop win rate this season, which might force Jacksonville to rely more on rookie Trevor Lawrence and the passing game. Over the past nine games, he has averaged 195.6 passing yards and 0.2 passing touchdowns. With an average of 28.4 rushing attempts per game, the Patriots rank eighth in the league, but quarterback Mac Jones is in a good position to rebound after averaging only 154.3 passing yards over the past three games. Against the Jaguars, New England can find success on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Patriots -15.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13, 45.5) at New York Jets
Schatz: Thirteen points is a big line to conquer, even for a team as strong as the Buccaneers. But they should not have any problem scoring points as the best offense by DVOA facing a Jets defense that is the worst in the league by the same metric. Will the Jets do their part by putting at least a few points on the board? Their offense is coming alive over the past few weeks and surprisingly has an above-average offensive DVOA over the past four games. It helps that the Jets and Buccaneers rank fifth and eighth, respectively, in total pace: the Bucs because they like to play fast, and the Jets because they are usually losing. Three of the past four Jets games and five of the past seven Buccaneers games have gone over this total, and we estimate a 74% chance that this game will as well.
Pick: Over 45.5
Kraemer: Fading the Jets' defense against teams with quality offensive lines and quarterbacks has been a profitable strategy. Jets games have gone over the total in nine of their past 12 games, as the defense ranks last in virtually every category in that span. The only games to go under in that span were against the Dolphins, Texans and Saints. While the Buccaneers are banged up offensively, Tom Brady and his offensive line are healthy, which spells bad news for the Jets. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers' defense is extremely beat up right now, while the Jets could be getting some of their key players back on offense, including Elijah Moore. Zach Wilson wasn't asked to do a lot last week, but he posted a career-high 92.4 Total QBR, with 97 rushing yards. Both teams also tend to play fast, ranking in the top 10 in pace. The Buccaneers should be able to hang a big number in this one, and the Jets can do enough to push it over the total.
Pick: Over 45.5
Marks: Brady owns the Jets and has his entire career, and even without two of his top targets the Bucs should dominate. The Bucs have 21 more touchdowns than their opponents, and the Jets have 21 fewer. Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles heads back to New York to tee up his defense against his former team and its rookie quarterback. Tampa Bay sports the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL, therefore first-year signal-caller Wilson is in for a challenging day.
Pick: Buccaneers -7 in 2-team, 6-poiint teaser with Dolphins +9.5, Wilson under .5 Passing TDs (+200), Gronkowski anytime TD (+160)
Fulghum: Laying a massive number bit me in the rear last week ... but that was the Chargers, who tend to Charger from time to time. Brady doesn't allow slippage from his team in the month of December, so once again I feel comfortable laying a big number with the Bucs against the Jets. Even missing key pieces on the offense, Brady (with AB and Gronk) should be able to put 30+ points on this dreadful Jets defense. Ronald Jones II should be busy and productive. I also don't like Wilson's chances of moving the ball with consistency and avoiding mistakes against Bowles' defense. Only Jacksonville has a worse ATS record than the 5-10 mark the Jets sport.
Pick: Buccaneers -13 (-110), Buccaneers team total over 29.5 (-110), Buccaneers over 3.5 TD scored (-105)
Moody: Historically, Brady has exploited inferior opponents. The Buccaneers have won six games by 13 or more points and five by 20 or more points. Brady will rely heavily on Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, but Jones and Tampa Bay's running game might also shine against a Jets defense that allows 141.3 rushing yards per game. When matched against teams with more than four wins, New York is 3-10 against the spread.
Pick: Buccaneers -13
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 46) at Washington Football Team
Schatz: The Eagles have improved over the course of the season to the point where they are 10th in weighted DVOA, our formula that lowers the strength of early-season games to get a better idea how well teams are playing right now. Washington ranks 25th overall in that same formula. Washington has particular problems getting off the field on defense, as it currently ranks 32nd in DVOA against passes on third down. And Washington doesn't seem to be built particularly well to attack the weaknesses that the Eagles' defense has. For example, the Eagles rank only 30th covering tight ends, but Ricky Seals-Jones is averaging 15 yards per game over his past five games. Philadelphia is only 23rd in red zone DVOA on defense, but Washington is just 20th on offense. And while Philadelphia's defense declines to 21st on third downs, Washington's offense declines to 28th.
Pick: Eagles -3.5
Marks: Washington's defense is dealing with a huge bout with Covid, and should be short handed this week. They have allowed a league high 33 passing touchdowns, and are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game. Miles Sanders is out due to a hand injury, if Jordan Howard can shake off a stinger he suffered in week 16, he will get the lion share of carries in the Eagles backfield.
Pick: Goedert over 51.5 rec yards, Scott over 41.5 rushing yards (-115)
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 46.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Fortenbaugh: This is a brutal spot for the Rams, who are playing their third game in 13 days after a Tuesday home date with Seattle followed by a road win at Minnesota and now a cross-country road matchup with the Ravens that kicks off in the early window. Go inside the box score of last Sunday's showdown against the Vikings and you'll see the Rams were very fortunate to escape with a win after being outgained in total yardage and committing three turnovers. Had the Vikings won that game as they should have, this line wouldn't be north of the key number of 3.
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Schatz: We don't know which quarterback will start for Baltimore in this game, and it actually might not matter. Surprisingly, the Ravens have had a (slightly) better offensive DVOA this year with both Tyler Huntley or Josh Johnson at quarterback instead of Lamar Jackson. No matter who plays quarterback, the Ravens have had an average offense this year while the Rams rank sixth in defensive DVOA. In particular, the Rams are strong against tight ends, so they should be able to slow down top Ravens weapon Mark Andrews.
The real issue, though, is the Ravens' defense, which has been absolutely decimated by injuries this season. Baltimore ranks 28th in defensive DVOA for the season and dead last since Week 10. Now the Ravens have to face a Rams offense that ranks seventh overall and ninth passing the ball. Despite blitzing more than almost every other team, the Ravens are only average in pressure rate. And Matthew Stafford ranks second in QBR when blitzed.
Pick: Rams -3.5
Fulghum: Normally this is a tough spot, but for whatever reason, Sean McVay has excelled traveling to the Eastern Time zone to play 1:00 p.m. games. Since taking over as the Rams head coach, McVay is 8-2 in this scenario, including 2-0 this season. With the Ravens ravaged by injuries in the secondary and either a hobbled Lamar Jackson or a backup QB under center, it bodes well for the Rams to continue that trend. L.A. just won three games in a stretch of 13 days without really being able to practice in person due to a COVID-19 outbreak. If the Ravens were healthier, especially in the secondary, this would be a different conversation, but after watching what the Bengals just did to this defense, how do you expect it to stop Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham?
Pick: Rams -3.5
Moody: The Ravens are on a four-game losing streak in which the defense has allowed 29 points per game. It will be a challenge for Baltimore to stop the Rams' high-octane offense. Among the league's top passers, Stafford ranks fourth with 4,339 yards passing, 36 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The league's leading receiver, Cooper Kupp, has 1,734 yards and 14 touchdown receptions. There is only one starter left in the Ravens' secondary, safety Chuck Clark. The best cornerback left, Anthony Averett, might not be able to play this Sunday due to a rib injury. Furthermore, Baltimore's best pass-rushers, Tyus Bowser and Justin Houston, are currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Picks: Over 46.5 points, Rams -3.5
Marks picks: Beckham Jr. anytime TD (+150), Kupp over 8.5 receptions