As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is the FPI's implied line. The FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 17!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 20-12-12
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5, 42.5)
FPI Implied Line: Patriots -13
I'm not going to make a short-term case for any Jaguars optimism because there is none. The best argument is blind faith in Trevor Lawrence playing better based on his college career.
There's a vast chasm separating these two teams. The question is simply: Is that chasm worth more than two touchdowns? The FPI doesn't think so. And it's largely the Patriots' offense that is holding the FPI back from thinking New England should be laying more here.
Mac Jones has had a nice season for a rookie, but the FPI sees the Patriots as having just the 15th-best offense going forward. Even if you want to be optimistic and look at only what the Patriots have been, they rank 11th in EPA per play. They're a bit above average at best. Which is fine! The defense carries this team. But it's also one reason the FPI isn't keen to cross that 14-point barrier.
FPI's side: Jaguars +15.5
Futures Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl +650
FPI Projection: 16.5% (+507)
An upfront caveat here is that the FPI doesn't know about the loss of Chris Godwin, which does hurt Tampa Bay. But still: Somehow the team quarterbacked by Tom Brady -- Tom Brady! -- appears to be a value this late in the season. Have the Bucs looked perfect lately? No. But they took care of business in Week 16 with a 32-6 win over Carolina and, more importantly, who in the NFC has appeared perfect?
Green Bay is the closest thing, but the FPI is not sold: It considers the Packers about a field goal worse than Tampa Bay on a neutral field. Just look at their point differential for a clue as to why: The Packers are +59 and the Buccaneers at +130, more than double!
The Packers are more likely to win the Super Bowl because they are in much better position to earn the bye. But the payout is higher with Tampa Bay. And at this price, the FPI thinks the Bucs are worth buying.
Early Week 17 lines
(as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Sunday
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14, 44.5)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6, 38)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 49) at Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 41)
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-8.5, 46)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5, 42.5)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7, 38)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13, 46) at New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 45.5)
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-15, 45)
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 42.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 45.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7, 48)
Monday
Cleveland Browns (-3, 40.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers