Intro by Doug Kezirian
Road teams have shined at the betting window this season, and the Week 13 slate will test bettors. We could see five road favorites of at least seven points, which would tie for the most in a single week over the last 40 seasons.
"I really don't think home field matters that much," Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said in a press release. "In general, home field has mattered less and less, and it shows since we have bigger road favorites. People are still willing to lay the points on big road favorites because the matchups are just viewed as total mismatches and the home field isn't as accounted for."
So far, road teams have covered 57%, which would be the highest cover percentage for any season in the Super Bowl era. Additionally, road teams are winning games outright and could finish above .500 for the second straight season. The only time it has ever happened since the 1970 merger was in 2020.
"I'm not saying it doesn't matter at all. I guess people have differing views on that," Pullen said. "But it's based on the talent. If the talent on the field is not good, then the home-field advantage is lessened."
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (13-21-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (9-23, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (36-32-1, 2-5) and Anita Marks (186-175, 13-14), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (92-87, 7-12), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (49-42, 4-1) and Mackenzie Kraemer (4-11, 0-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (24-20-1, 1-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (38-32, 2-4) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 12.)
Here are their best bets for Sunday's Week 13 games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Cardinals-Bears | Buccaneers-Falcons | Chargers-Bengals | Vikings-Lions | Giants-Dolphins | Eagles-Jets | Colts-Texans | Washington-Raiders | Jaguars-Rams | Ravens-Steelers | 49ers-Seahawks | Broncos-Chiefs
Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET game
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 47)
Schatz: The recent resurgence of the Kansas City offense isn't quite as resurgent as we want to think. Offensive DVOA of 24.2% over the last two games is very good, but it doesn't match the highs of the Kansas City offense from 2018 to 2020. And it is just two games, after all. What's really going well for the Chiefs is actually their defense. Believe it or not, since Week 6, DVOA says the Chiefs have had the second-best defense in the NFL behind the Patriots! That's definitely enough to make the Chiefs the clear favorite in this game, but 9.5 points is a pretty big line against a very average Broncos squad. One key will be for the Broncos to start their drives out with pass plays, not run plays. On first down this season, the Broncos rank ninth in DVOA when they pass but 28th when they run. The Kansas City defense on first down is 30th against passes but 10th against runs. As for betting this game, it would be nice to have that extra half point back to the earlier line of +10, and I would consider buying it.
Pick: Broncos +9.5
Marks: The Chiefs offense has scored 20 points or more once since Week 6, and last week the Cowboys defense held them to three points in the second half. Denver's defense is allowing less than seven red zone plays per game, and Vic Fangio has Patrick Mahomes' number. Mahomes has two passing touchdowns in three games against Fangio's defense.
Pick: Broncos +9.5, Mahomes under 2.5 TD passes (-180), Tyreek Hill over 2.5 rushing yards (-120)
Moody: Tyreek Hill is an integral part of the Chiefs' highly concentrated passing attack. He is averaging 11.3 targets and 84.7 receiving yards per game this season and has four games over 80 yards. As well as being a great receiver, Hill is also exceptional at gaining yards after the catch, averaging 31.5 per game. Whenever he catches the ball, he is a threat to score a touchdown. Hill has a significant advantage against the Broncos' cornerback and could be particularly lethal from the slot.
Pick: Hill over 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 49.5)
Schatz: Did you realize that Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards this season? Sure, a lot of that was built up in the first three weeks of the season when he topped 380 passing yards for three straight games. But Carr has also beaten this prop in four of his last six contests, including throwing for 373 yards against Dallas last week. Meanwhile, the Washington Football Team defense is a major pass funnel, ranking seventh in defensive DVOA against the run but 30th against the pass. Low passing totals allowed over the last few weeks have primarily been caused by the quarterbacks Washington was facing, but Washington has still allowed over this number in five of 11 games this year, with another game just missing at 274. We estimate a 71% chance of Carr cashing in this prop.
Pick: Carr over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
Walder: Hunter Renfrow's receiving yards opportunity does not justify this line. His expected receiving yards per game (based on NFL Next Gen Stats data) has been just 51.8 this season. My first thought when I saw that number and this line was that his usage must have changed after the Raiders released Henry Ruggs. But that actually hasn't been the case. From Week 8 on, Renfrow's receiving yards per game has been even lower at 48.2.
Presumably, this high line is a reflection of the fact that Darren Waller will likely miss this game and that Renfrow posted 134 receiving yards last week. Should that increase our expectation for the former Clemson receiver by this much? I'm willing to wager it's a bit of an overreaction.
In addition, Rich Bisaccia has proven to be quite conservative on fourth down in a limited sample during his run as head coach. And being more conservative on fourth down results in more field-goal attempts, so I'm on Daniel Carlson's over.
Pick: Renfrow under 64.5 receiving yards (-115), Carlson over 1.5 FGs made (+100)
Moody: Carr has been sensational this season, averaging 310.4 passing yards per game. This includes six games with 300 or more passing yards and one game with over 400 yards. Las Vegas desperately needed a deep threat after the release of Ruggs, and DeSean Jackson finally appears to fit the Raiders offense. Carr is facing a Washington defense that allows the third-most passing yards per game (266) to opponents.
Pick: Carr over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-13, 48)
Fulghum: The Rams should win this game, but that doesn't mean that it will be pretty. L.A. is in the midst of a serious transformation after starting the season 7-1. The Rams are onboarding unique talents like Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller while dealing with the catastrophic loss of offensive lynchpin and team captain Robert Woods. That said, the Jags are the tonic the Rams need at the moment. Against teams currently under .500 this season, Sean McVay's group is 5-0 with an average margin of victory +16.2 points per game.
Pick: Rams -13, under 48
Kraemer: The under has hit in six straight Jacksonville games and in nine of their 11 games this season, and I see no reason for that to change. Jacksonville's offense has not scored more than 23 points in a game all season, and Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 1. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has hit a rut, averaging less than 5.8 yards per play in three straight games. With the Rams offense struggling and the Jaguars offense being inept, 48 points seems too high for this total. Plus, the Jaguars have only five interceptions all season, so the chances of another Matthew Stafford pick-six should be low.
Pick: Under 48
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 44) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Schatz: In general, roughly 20% of passes defensed will become interceptions. Much like looking at pressures is a better way to predict future sacks than past sacks, looking at passes defensed is a better way to predict future interceptions than past interceptions. Ben Roethlisberger has only six picks this year, but he's near the top of the league with 4.5 passes defensed per game. The Ravens have only five interceptions, but they have an above-average 4.6 passes defensed per game. Both of these ratios suggest that the odds of Roethlisberger throwing an interception this week are better than the odds you're going to get from your favorite sportsbook.
Pick: Roethlisberger over 0.5 INTs (-115)
Marks: Devonta Freeman is getting the majority of the volume in the backfield for the Ravens, out-touching Latavius Murray last week 17 to eight. The Steelers' rush defense has been horrible this season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry, and will be without T.J. Watt this week.
Pick: Freeman over 49.5 rushing yards (-115)
Moody: Mark Andrews is one of the league's most consistent tight ends. This season, he averages eight targets per game and has topped 50 yards in eight games. Lamar Jackson should continue to rely on Andrews often.
Pick: Andrews over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 45.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Bearman: You hope it's not too late to jump on a trend, but a great trend is a great trend, especially when it passes the eye test. The Seahawks are 8-1-1 to the under this season, including 5-0-1 after a loss and 6-0 in conference games. Anyone who has watched the Hawks offense since Russell Wilson has returned from his finger injury (maybe too soon?) will gladly take under 45.5. Seattle has averaged 8.7 PPG, 65 rush yards per game and has been outgained by 145 yards per game.
Despite the horrible offensive numbers, Seattle has been in every game because its much-maligned defense hasn't been too bad, allowing 15.4 points per game over the last five contests. The Niners offense has been great recently, hitting 30-plus points in four of the last five games. They could get there again, but the Seahawks have not allowed 30 points since Week 3 and they'd still need to score 14-17 points, which is a stretch at this point. I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that the last time a Seattle game came close to the over (it was a push) was in Week 4 vs. these Niners. However, it was a 28-13 game until the closing seconds when a Trey Lance TD (and 2-pointer) pushed it at 49. The under is also 13-2 in Wilson's last 15 regular-season starts, regardless of opponent.
Pick: Under 45.5
Moody: Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 234.2 passing yards per game this season, and in recent weeks the 49ers offense has thrived, with a delicate balance between their passing game and their running game. Garoppolo will be without Samuel, who is expected to miss one to two weeks due to a groin injury, so Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will have to pick up the slack. Taylor Heinicke, Colt McCoy, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence and Jameis Winston combined to average 260.6 passing yards per game against the Seahawks over the last five games.
Pick: Garoppolo over 222.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: Even with a surgically repaired finger, Elijah Mitchell played 70% of the snaps for the 49ers last week and had 32 touches for 168 yards. Deebo Samuel is out, so Mitchell will be needed more than ever in both the rushing and passing attack.
Pick: Mitchell over 86.5 rushing yards (-120), Aiyuk over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
Arizona Cardinals (-8, 44.5) at Chicago Bears
Fortenbaugh: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are back at practice and the rest of the Arizona roster is well-rested coming off the team's bye week. Furthermore, the Cardinals currently rank fourth in the NFL in scoring defense (18.4 PPG) and sixth in opponent yards per play (5.3). But if you're still waiting for me to blow your mind, brace yourself, because here it is: On the road this season, Arizona is 6-0 both straight up and against the number while beating the closing spread by an average of 18.6 points per game! That's not how many points the team is winning by, it's how many points the team is beating the spread by! Good luck to the Bears, who currently rank 29th in the league in both scoring and yards per play.
Pick: Cardinals -8, Cardinals -2 in 6-point teaser with Vikings -1
Marks: Arizona is coming off of a bye and hoping to get Murray and Hopkins back healthy and ready to roll. Even if Murray is not active, the Cardinals are confident in Colt McCoy, who went 2-1 in Murray's absence. The Bears have not decided who will be under center, but regardless, the Cardinals have allowed only two touchdowns from outside the red zone. Neither Bears quarterback will have much success against Arizona's defense. The Bears will be playing from behind and will have to rely on their passing game to stay in step with the Cardinals. Not happening.
Pick: Cardinals -2 in 6-point teaser with Saints +12, David Montgomery under 83.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 50.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Schatz: Last year, the Falcons were an extremely unlucky football team with a terrible record in close games. It's the exact opposite this year. The Falcons have been very fortunate in close games but also get constantly blown out by superior teams. They lost by 26 to Philadelphia, 25 to New England, 40 to Dallas and 23 to Tampa Bay in the first meeting between these clubs. All that very bad football puts the Falcons dead last in our DVOA ratings despite a 5-6 record. The Buccaneers? They're currently first in our DVOA ratings, including ranking No. 1 on offense and No. 6 on defense. This game is tremendously lopsided and it's easy to see where Tampa Bay picks up another big win like it did back in Week 2.
Pick: Buccaneers -11
Marks: The Falcons defense has allowed 21 passing touchdowns this season, and the Bucs have run over 80 plays inside the red zone, which is a formula for many points to be scored by Tom Brady and crew this Sunday. Matt Ryan and the Falcons will have to respond with their passing game, considering Tampa's rush defense is only allowing 3.7 yards per carry. Expect a barn burner in Atlanta.
Pick: Over 50.5, Brady over 2.5 passing TDs (+110 at DraftKings), Cordarrelle Patterson over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will continue to be relied upon by Brady in the passing game with Antonio Brown expected to miss the next two weeks. Evans has averaged 6.6 targets and 55 receiving yards per game over the last five games, and Godwin has averaged eight targets and 73.3 receiving yards. It should be no problem for both receivers to get open and create separation from the Falcons' cornerbacks.
Ryan and the Falcons benefited greatly from the return of Patterson as a runner and playmaker last week. The Falcons didn't have to rely on the passing game against the Jaguars, but that won't be the case against the Buccaneers. With Julio Jones now with the Titans and Calvin Ridley away from the team due to personal reasons, defenses have prioritized taking away tight end Kyle Pitts. The matchup provides Olamide Zaccheaus a solid opportunity. He is averaging 11.7 yards per reception this season and will likely be relied on early and often against the Buccaneers.
Picks: Evans over 60.5 receiving yards (-115), Godwin over 69.5 receiving yards (-115), Zaccheaus over 25.5 receiving yards (+100)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 50.5)
Bearman: As always, the Chargers are a tough team to figure out. After starting 4-1 with wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, they have gone 2-4, only beating the below-.500 Pennsylvania teams. Not sure I trust them to go cross country for 10 a.m. local start and beat a good Bengals team. As much firepower as the offense has, it's the defense that has hurt the bolts. The Chargers defense has given up 24-plus points in each of their last seven games, with the 31.3 points allowed average over that span ranking just ahead of the Jets. You aren't going to win or cover many games giving up over 30 per game. The last time the Chargers went from one side of the country to the other for an early kick, they got run out of town by a Baltimore team that hasn't blown anyone out since.
Cincy is 2-0 since the bye, outscoring the Raiders and Steelers 73-23. The offense looks back on track and has scored 31-plus points in five of the last six games, only missing during the debacle vs. the Browns in Week 9 before the bye. The Bengals' 31.3 PPG average since Week 6 is second-best in the league behind the Colts. Joe Mixon, who has 288 yards and four TDs rushing over the past two games, is as hot as any running back in football not named Jonathan Taylor and now faces a Chargers defense that is dead last in the NFL against the rush, having been gutted by RBs far below Mixon's level. My only issue here is, do you trust the Bengals to lay 3?
Pick: Bengals -3
Schatz: The Bengals are favored this week over a team that is ahead of them in both Football Outsiders' DVOA and ESPN FPI. In the former, the Chargers rank 16th and the Bengals 18th. In the latter, the Chargers rank 12th and the Bengals 18th. A big reason for the difference between these ratings and public perception is strength of schedule. The Bengals have played the second-easiest schedule in the league so far this year based on average DVOA of opponents. The Chargers have played the second-hardest schedule. And while the Bengals are hot with two straight strong wins over other AFC contenders, don't forget that just three and four weeks ago they were losing to the Jets and losing big to the Browns.
It's also important to remember that offense is more predictive than defense and special teams. The Chargers are second in offensive DVOA right now, and the Bengals are 21st. The Bengals are better on defense and special teams, but again, those units are less predictive. The Bengals will be able to run the ball consistently against the Chargers, who have the worst run defense in the league. But will they be able to stop the Los Angeles passing attack, particularly on third downs? The Chargers no longer have unsustainable numbers on third down like they did early in the season, but they rank fifth in offensive DVOA, while the Bengals' defense ranks 22nd.
In fact, with the Chargers offense so strong and their defense relatively weak (23rd overall), I'm counting on both teams to put up points in this contest. Four of the last five Cincinnati games have gone over a 50-point total. So have three of the last five Chargers games, with another making it up to 47.
Pick: Chargers +3, over 50.5
Marks: This line is a knee jerk reaction to the Bengals' dominance over the Steelers, but Justin Herbert and the Chargers are a different animal. The Bengals do not blitz much, so expect Herbert to have success in the passing game. The Chargers rank 31st against the run, so I expect a big game from Mixon, and C.J. Uzomah should find the end zone this week, considering the Chargers have allowed the most TDs to opposing tight ends this season. The Bengals are first in the NFL in penalty yards per game, and that is worth a field goal.
Pick: Chargers +3, over 50.5, Ja'Marr Chase under 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
Walder: Jared Cook has had an almost bizarrely consistent receiving yards season. He has posted between 25 and 29 yards in seven contests this year. I think that's slightly underselling the median of what we should expect going forward, however. Cook's expected receiving yards per game -- based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats -- is 39. Based on that, I'm banking on this line being a couple of yards too low.
Pick: Cook over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Since Cincinnati's bye, Joe Burrow has only averaged 169 passing yards per game over the last two weeks as Cincinnati has leaned more on Mixon and the running game. As a reminder, he averaged 277.4 passing yards per game from Weeks 1-9 and is very capable of putting up extraordinary passing performances with receiving playmakers Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. I believe we'll see the Bengals lean more on the passing game against the Chargers.
Picks: Burrow over 248.5 passing yards (-115)
Minnesota Vikings (-7, 46.5) at Detroit Lions
Fortenbaugh: No Dalvin Cook for Minnesota, no D'Andre Swift for Detroit, the latter of which is a monstrous blow to a Lions offense that has topped 19 points just one time this season (Week 1 vs. San Francisco). Not surprisingly, the under has cashed in eight of Detroit's last nine games.
Pick: Under 46.5
Kraemer: The Lions have gone under 19.5 points for 10 consecutive weeks. The only time all season they have gone over this number was in Week 1 against San Francisco, and even in that game they had just 17 points at the two-minute warning. Throw in the fact that Swift is expected to miss this game and it's hard to see how the Lions get over this number without the Vikings giving away points off turnovers. And the Vikings have eight turnovers all season, second-fewest in the NFL.
Pick: Lions team total under 19.5 (+100)
Marks: Kirk Cousins has a favorable matchup this week against a Lions defense that ranks 29th in TD rate and is allowing 13 yards per completion to opposing quarterbacks. Detroit WR Josh Reynolds has suited up for two games with the Lions and has run routes on over 90% of QB dropbacks. Jared Goff will need someone to throw to, and it looks as if Reynolds is his main target.
Pick: Reynolds over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-4, 40.5)
Bearman: I grabbed this total earlier in the week at 42 before the Daniel Jones neck news and would still play it at anywhere above 40. This is the fifth consecutive week I am taking the under in a Dolphins game; so far I'm 4-1, with the lone loss by the hook last week vs. Carolina in a game in which Cam Newton, P.J. Walker and the Panthers' special teams gift-wrapped 17 of the Dolphins' 33 points. Simply put, the Dolphins defense of 2020 has finally shown up, and the offense, while getting better under a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, is still a dink-and-dunk show. After holding down Josh Allen and the Bills for most of the game five weeks ago, the Dolphins defense dominated the Texans, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens and shut down both the Jets and Panthers offenses the last two weeks. Over the five games, Miami is second in the league in points allowed per game (14.4), second in defensive efficiency and has held QBs to a 26.3 QBR, second-best to the Patriots.
All you have to do to find a similar performing defense is look across the sidelines, as the Giants have held opponents to 15.2 PPG over their last five games and opposing QBs to a 26.6 QBR. So we have two high-performing defenses not exactly facing offensive juggernauts. The Giants and Dolphins rank 24th and 30th in yards per play, 27th and 31st in rush yards per play and 26th and 24th, respectively, in scoring. If you recall the Jets-Dolphins game from two weeks ago, there were a lot of three-and-outs, punts and the occasional long drive that ate up time. And with Jones sitting this one out for Mike Glennon, it's even better, I think.
Pick: Under 42
Marks: Jones is sitting this one out for the Giants, so Glennon is expected to be under center. Miami is blitz-happy and Glennon does not have the ability to elude or create. Miami's defense has been great of late, allowing opponents to score on only 20% of their offensive possessions. Giants road games have a tendency to go under (0-5-1). John Ross is Glennon's go-to guy, and with no Sterling Shepard or Kadarius Toney, Glennon will look to get the ball to him quickly.
Pick: Dolphins -4 , under 42
Moody: With Miami's offense now in sync, there is some room for kicker Jason Sanders to do his thing. In contrast, the Giants' defense has allowed 379 opponent yards per game over the last three weeks, which is the fifth-most over that period. Sanders has made three extra points in two straight games.
Pick: Sanders over 2.5 made extra points (+150)
Moody: Jalen Hurts is averaging 203 passing yards per game this season with only four games exceeding 230 passing yards. Obviously, Hurts' ankle injury will limit him in some ways, but it produces an opportunity for him to test himself against one of the worst defenses in the league. Tagovailoa (273 yards), Allen (366 yards), Carson Wentz (272) and Joe Burrow (259 yards) have all had solid passing performances against New York recently. After Week 13 is over, Hurts should be added to this list.
Picks: Hurts over 189.5 passing yards (-115)
Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 45.5) at New York Jets
Fortenbaugh: Philadelphia leads the NFL in rushing at 157.9 yards per game, while the Jets rank 27th in the league in defending the run (128.7 YPG allowed). Look for the Eagles to control the tempo of the game by running the ball, grinding the clock and leaning on a defense that currently ranks sixth in the NFL in opponent yards per play. Take note that in the seven games started by rookie quarterback Zach Wilson this season, the Jets are averaging a paltry 14.4 points per outing.
Pick: Under 45.5
Indianapolis Colts (-10, 45.5) at Houston Texans
Fulghum: What a massive eruption spot for the hottest player in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has scored a TD in nine consecutive games and his 97-yard performance last week snapped a streak of eight consecutive games with 100-plus yards of offense. Last week's opponent was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Texans are not quite as stiff a test. Taylor has received 19 or more touches in six straight games, and I see no reason for that to stop here in a positive game script environment against an overmatched foe.
Pick: Colts -10, Taylor over 105.5 rushing yards (-115), Taylor over 126.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110), Taylor to score TD (-295)