As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 13!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 15-7-11
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47.5) at New Orleans Saints
FPI Implied Line: Cowboys -1.5
FPI cannot quit the Saints. Even after a 31-6 blowout loss to the Bills on Thanksgiving.
Don't get me wrong: It has come a long way. It sees New Orleans as just a league average team now -- 17th best. The offense is a liability with Trevor Siemian out there at quarterback. But what FPI really likes is New Orleans' defense, which makes up for the team's deficiencies on offense. They rank seventh in EPA per play and sixth in FPI rating (entering Sunday) on that side of the ball.
Though the model has clearly downgraded New Orleans -- after Week 7 it made the Saints the 9th-best team in football -- so, too, has the market.
The other reason why FPI's rating for this game is dramatically different from Caesars' is that FPI remains somewhat wary of the Dallas defense. The Cowboys rank eighth in EPA per play on defense, but FPI isn't quite buying it because they've been turnover reliant. If we remove interception and fumble plays they only are 20th in the same category, and so the model makes Dallas only the 13th-best defense going forward.
Dallas' offense will be the best unit on the field Thursday. But it's not enough to be favored by five points on the road, FPI thinks.
FPI's side: Saints +5
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 49.5)
FPI Implied Line: Chiefs -6
FPI is, evidently, not totally sold on the Chiefs' resurgence just yet.
If we looked just at recent events this would be a different story. From Week 10 on (two games for Chiefs, three for some teams) Kansas City ranks second in offensive EPA per play and third in defensive EPA per play. The former is very believable and the latter is truly stunning.
From Weeks 1 to 9, the Chiefs' defense ranked 30th in the same defensive category. It's a lesson in defensive variance -- it's less predictable week to week than offense. And it's also a reminder that variance can giveth and it can taketh. Just because the defense has played better recently does not mean it necessarily will continue to do so.
That's actually the entire difference between the model and market here, I suspect: recency. FPI doesn't place a larger emphasis on recent games. We're judging these teams on small samples and so it looks at the entire body of work. And for Kansas City, there was a lot of mediocre play earlier this year that FPI hasn't forgotten about.
FPI's side: Broncos +9.5
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 49)
FPI Implied Line: Raiders -3.5
Most important thing not to forget here: Washington will be playing on short rest, while the Raiders will be coming off extra rest. And Washington is not just the road team, but a cross-country road team. Those are small but real factors that can certainly play a role when we're thinking about the game against the number.
That being said, FPI does think the Raiders are the slightly better team on a neutral field, too. They certainly have the quarterback edge, with Derek Carr ranking ninth in QBR while Taylor Heinicke sits at 20th. And while the Raiders' defense is horrific, don't forget that Washington's is at least below average, too.
Put it all together and the model thinks Las Vegas should be favored by more than a field goal, not less. Though just a single point, that's a big difference.
FPI's side: Raiders -2.5
Early Week 13 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 50.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals (-7, 45) at Chicago Bears
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 51)
Minnesota Vikings (-7, 47.5) at Detroit Lions
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 42.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 45) at New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 46) at Houston Texans
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 49)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-13.5, 48)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 46.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 49.5)
Monday
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3, 45)