Week 10 of the NFL season is already upon us. It kicked off with the Miami Dolphins pulling off an upset of the Baltimore Ravens. What's in store for Sunday? We have it covered.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (12-18-2, 1-4 last week), Tyler Fulghum (8-19, 1-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (33-18-1, 2-3) and Anita Marks (152-122, 13-18), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (73-53, 17-10), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (38-37, 4-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (2-7, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (20-14-1, 3-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (28-18, 4-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Falcons-Cowboys | Saints-Titans | Jaguars-Colts | Browns-Patriots | Bills-Jets | Lions-Steelers | Bucs-Washington | Panthers-Cardinals | Vikings-Chargers | Eagles-Broncos | Seahawks-Packers | Chiefs-Raiders
8:20 p.m. ET game
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 51.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Fulghum: I would love this if it got to +3, but I'll still take the points with the Raiders in a bounce-back spot against a Chiefs team that continues to look broken. The Raiders played the Chiefs well last season in two close games, beating them at Arrowhead Stadium.
Pick: Raiders +2.5
Walder: Tyreek Hill's receiving yards line (73.5) is a decent bit below his expected receiving yards per game (86.0) this season, based on data from NFL Next Gen Stats. Now, Patrick Mahomes has been underperforming in the completion percentage over the expectation department this year to the tune of -3%, a couple points worse than his career average. The good news is that the Raiders are allowing opponents' a CPOE of +1.4%. Between expected positive regression and the opponent, I think it's reasonable to expect Mahomes to be something close to average in the CPOE department in this game. That, in turn, should make Hill's expected receiving yards per game a decent benchmark for what he should do Monday night. I like his chances of hitting the over.
Pick: Hill over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Derek Carr owns the Chiefs. In his past two games against Kansas City, he has passed for 622 yards and six TDs. Main target Darren Waller is back healthy after an 11-target game in Week 9 and is ready for another big game. Newly added DeSean Jackson should fill the void of Henry Ruggs III as a deep threat.
Picks: Over 51.5, Carr over 1.5 touchdowns (-115), Carr over 289.5 passing yards (-115), Waller over 68.5 receiving yards (-120), Waller anytime touchdown (+113)
4 p.m. ET games
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10.5, 44)
Marks: The Panthers offensive line ranks 29th in the NFL and took a huge hit this past week -- losing both LT Cameron Erving (calf) and C Matt Paradis (knee). The game script is one where the Panthers will be playing from behind and will need to abandon the run to keep up with the scoring pace of the Cardinals.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey under 62.5 rushing yards (-120)
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 52.5)
Schatz: I've been writing all year about how advanced metrics had the Chargers lower than conventional wisdom. Our DVOA metric also has the Vikings higher than conventional wisdom. The Vikings are 11th in DVOA and the Chargers are 16th. The Chargers have the better offense, but the Vikings have a top-10 defense, even after giving up 34 points to the Ravens last week. There's also a big gap here in special teams, which continues to be a problem for the Chargers. They are dead last in special teams DVOA for the third straight year. This may be a good chance for the Vikings to get their running game going; they're a surprising 29th in run offense DVOA, but the Chargers are dead last in run defense. Also, don't be surprised if Tyler Conklin plays a big role for the Vikings, as the Chargers are 31st in the league covering tight ends -- even after we adjust for facing the likes of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller.
Pick: Vikings +3
Fortenbaugh: Some teams throughout the wide world of sports can be tricky to figure out. Minnesota is not one of those clubs. When the Vikings play at home, they allow just 17 points per game with help from the incredible crowd noise created at U.S. Bank Stadium. But when Minnesota goes on the road, it's a different story entirely, as the defense surrenders an average of 30.8 points per game (second-worst in the NFL). And it's not as if there's an outlier in the bunch. So far this season, the Vikings have given up 27 at Cincinnati, 34 at Arizona, 28 at Carolina and 34 at Baltimore. The Chargers are averaging 29 points per game at home this season and should hang a big number in this one.
Pick: Chargers team total over 27.5 points
Marks: All of the Vikings' road games have gone over this season. And now they will be without cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Harrison Smith against the young and fabulous Justin Herbert. The Vikings' coaching staff said they need to get Justin Jefferson more targets this week, and I'm banking on it.
Picks: Chargers -3, over 53, Jefferson over 5.5 receptions (-140)
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 45)
Schatz: The Broncos' defense ranks second in the league in points allowed, but that's partly because the Broncos also benefit from the second-best starting field position of any defense in the league. Denver is not particularly efficient on defense, ranking only 22nd in DVOA. In fact, its offense ranks higher than its defense at No. 14. The same is true for the Eagles, who rank 13th in offensive DVOA and 24th on defense. The Broncos' slow pace (31st in situation-neutral pace) will be mitigated by the Eagles' much faster pace (second). It all suggests a game with more scoring than expected. Overall, we have this game going over in 64% of simulations.
Pick: Over 45
Fortenbaugh: These are two underrated defenses, at least from a statistical standpoint. Denver enters Week 10 ranked second in the NFL in scoring defense and both units find themselves within the top 10 in opponent yards per play. Throw in the fact that Denver ranks 29th in the league in pace and we should be able to grind our way to an under.
Pick: Under 45
Kezirian: Not a ton of hard core numbers from me, as both Joe and Aaron make strong cases for their plays. I just don't see either coach opting for a high-scoring affair, given the limited passing abilities of both Jalen Hurts and Teddy Bridgewater. As I have laid out in this space before, when two limited offenses are involved, I prefer an under on the first half. Often we see one team trail by double digits and force plays in the second half or even go for it on fourth down. Teams in these scenarios are usually more conservative in the first half.
Pick: First half under 21.5
Marks: Jalen Hurts has 31 total passing attempts over the past two weeks, and I see much of the same against a good Broncos pass defense. The Broncos lost three starting offensive lineman this week, so expect Bridgewater to struggle against an Eagles team that plays a lot of zone coverage.
Picks: Bridgewater under 1.5 TD passes (+105)
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49.5)
Schatz: The most important part of picking this game is getting an accurate read on how good each offense truly is because of the time each one has spent with a backup quarterback who is inferior to the starter. Take out the games with Geno Smith starting and Seattle's pass offense DVOA would be the best in the league at around 60%. Take out last week's Jordan Love experience and Green Bay's pass offense DVOA would be seventh at around 30%. That's a pretty big gap between what Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have done so far. In reality, that gap is probably smaller. Rodgers is coming off an MVP season and had a fluky bad game in Week 1. So let's say for now that the two passing games are equal.
The running games currently rank 11th and 12th in the league in DVOA, so those are equal. Green Bay has the better defense, currently 16th compared to 23rd for Seattle. The Seahawks have the better special teams unit, 12th compared to Green Bay at 30th. Add defense and special teams together, and these units cancel each other out.
So if we have two equal passing games and two equal running games and the defense and special teams cancel each other out, why would you not take Seattle and the points? Remember, there has basically been no home-field advantage in the NFL for three years now.
Pick: Seahawks +3.5
Walder: Let's throw out the advanced stats for a minute and look at a simple one: point differential. The Packers? They're at +19 this season. Seattle is at +12. Are we sure these two teams are that different? FPI certainly doesn't think so. If it were setting this line, it would make it Packers -1. Yes, Green Bay is home, but that advantage is largely wiped out by the fact that Seattle is coming off a bye. This line has been bouncing around a little, but as long as you're getting more than a field goal, I like Seattle.
Though props-wise, I'm fading one Seahawk. Typically, when I compare expected receiving yards per game -- derived from NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion percentage, air yards and expected YAC -- and receiving prop lines, the numbers are very similar. But that's not the case with DK Metcalf on Sunday night, with a line of 70.5 despite averaging 49 expected receiving yards per game. Yes, Metcalf has beaten those expectations, and yes, he has done that despite playing with Geno Smith for part of the season. But 70.5 is simply out of line with the kind of opportunity he has been getting in Seattle's offense.
Picks: Seahawks +3.5, Metcalf under 70.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Seattle gets Wilson back this week. Meanwhile, Rodgers cannot get back into the Packers' team facility until Saturday and is still dealing with health concerns from COVID-19, so there is a chance Jordan Love could get another start. Jump on this line now!
Picks: Seahawks +3.5
1 p.m. ET games
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 54.5)
Schatz: The Falcons have been very bad according to Football Outsiders' stats, ranking 31st overall in DVOA. But Matt Ryan has been very good and has been putting up numbers. Ryan has over 300 yards passing in four games this year, with a fifth that went just over this week's player prop number. Dallas is a top-10 team in defensive DVOA, but there are two specifics that have me leaning towards Ryan's over. First, Atlanta is likely to be behind in this game late, which means extra passing yardage as the Falcons try to come back. Second, Dallas ranks 32nd in DVOA covering tight ends this year. That's a sign of a big game for Ryan's favorite receiver, rookie Kyle Pitts.
Pick: Ryan over 282.5 passing yards (-115)
Moody: This season, Matt Ryan has averaged 269.6 passing yards per game. He has, however, thrown for 330 yards or more in three of his past four games. In his career, Ryan has a passer rating of 100.6 with 1,604 yards in six games against the Cowboys. Sam Darnold threw 301 yards against Dallas earlier this season, so Ryan is in good shape to top his passing yards per game numbers this time around.
Cordarrelle Patterson has averaged 57.4 receiving yards per game, including 126 receiving yards against the Saints last week. Patterson faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed the eighth-most passing yards (270.5) to opponents. The offensive playmaker should be utilized early and often as a runner and receiver with Calvin Ridley still out.
Picks: Ryan over 286.5 passing yards (-115), Patterson over 40.5 receiving yards (-130)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-3, 44.5)
Schatz: This pick is pretty small potatoes, but let's talk about Titans third receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. He has impressed the team enough that this week the Titans cut Josh Reynolds, the player who was originally supposed to be this year's third receiver. Westbrook-Ikhine has only 30 yards in the past two games -- but that was enough to go over this week's prop both times. In fact, Westbrook-Ikhine has beaten this prop in five of his past six games. He had only one target last week, but that target would have beaten this prop at 14 yards. Plus, New Orleans ranks 30th in DVOA against "other wide receivers," suggesting depth problems at cornerback once you get past covering the two main receivers on the outside.
Pick: Westbrook-Ikhine over 13.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Titans defense has developed into something special and is coming into this matchup with a lot of swag. Trevor Siemian will have his hands full and will not have Alvin Kamara to carry the load because of a knee injury. Deonte Harris has a nice connection with Siemian (13 targets together), and if Siemian gets another start this week, expect more looks to go Harris' way.
Picks: Tennessee -3, Harris over 3.5 receptions (-125)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47.5)
Fortenbaugh: The last time we saw Jacksonville win a football game, the Jags promptly responded by getting annihilated at Seattle to the tune of a 31-7 beatdown. This week, Urban Meyer and company face another flat spot after stunning the Bills 9-6 in a matchup where Buffalo closed as a 14.5-point favorite. The deck is set for an Indy rout in this one, as the Colts have had 10 days to get ready for this game, all while covering the number in five of their past six outings.
Pick: Colts -10.5
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-2.5, 45.5)
Bearman: Are people sold yet that Patriots are better than a seven-win team and are a true contender for a playoff spot? They seem to be getting better every week and now sit one back of the Bills in the loss column. Over the past six weeks, they have road wins over the Chargers and Panthers, a blowout win over the Jets and nearly knocked off Super Bowl contenders Dallas and Tampa Bay. Josh McDaniels' offense, which got criticized the first few weeks for being too conservative with rookie QB Mac Jones, has continued its surge since the fourth quarter of the Dallas game with 51 points over the past two weeks. The defense, ranked ninth in total yards allowed, is back to being a Bill Belichick-style defense, basically pitching a shutout last week in Carolina (both field goals were off turnovers) and holding the Chargers for most of the game the week before.
The Browns showed up in impressive fashion for the battle of Ohio last week but still have many question marks. If running back Nick Chubb doesn't play (COVID protocol) and this becomes a "force Baker to throw" game, then this becomes a steal.
Pick: Patriots -1.5 (at time of bet)
Fortenbaugh: Both teams rank in the top 10 in scoring defense and opponent yards per play. Both rank 19th or slower in pace. There's no Chubb and a banged-up Baker Mayfield facing an elite defensive mastermind in Belichick. I understand that the Patriots are averaging 31.8 points per game over their past five outings, but four of those matchups came against teams that ranked 18th or worse in scoring defense and 17th or worse in opponent yards per play. The lone dissenter? That would be a Panthers team that saw quarterback Sam Darnold throw three interceptions, one of which was taken to the house from 88 yards away.
Pick: Under 45.5
Kraemer: A lot of statistical indicators are leaning to the under. Both teams run a lot, both teams have proven they can stop the run, and both teams like to play slow. Last week, the Browns' offense put up 41 points, but it was based largely off big plays. Belichick and the Patriots' top-five defense should be able to do a better job containing Cleveland's offense. Meanwhile, the Browns' defense is hitting its stride, holding three straight opponents to 16 points or fewer.
Pick: Under 45.5
Walder: The Browns lead the league in both pass block win rate and pass rush win rate, which measures performance in the trenches on a play-by-play basis using NFL Next Gen Stats. This season hasn't gone perfectly for Cleveland, but I have a hard time believing that a team this good along the line of scrimmage -- in the pass game, which is what matters most -- isn't a top-10 squad going forward.
Pick: Browns +2.5
Marks: The Browns are expected to be without Chubb, but D'Ernest Johnson filled the void in Week 7 with 168 yards. Mayfield is having fun again with Beckham no longer in Cleveland and threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Browns defense will get pressure on Jones this week. Jones sports a 56% completion rate in a heated pocket and an injured backfield will not offer much help.
Pick: Browns +8.5 in a 2-team, 6-point teaser
Buffalo Bills (-13, 47.5) at New York Jets
Moody: Josh Allen averages 279.5 passing yards per game this season, though he has averaged only 256.5 passing yards a game over the past two weeks. Bills head coach Sean McDermott mentioned publicly that "adjustments are being made" to the offense after being stifled by the Jaguars last week. The Jets offer the perfect matchup to get back on track offensively. Over the past five games, New York has allowed an average of 295.6 passing yards per game to Carson Wentz, Joe Burrow, Mac Jones, Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill. You can expect a similar performance from Allen.
Michael Carter has averaged 21.3 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 114.6 total yards per game since coming back from the bye week. Whether Mike White or Zach Wilson is at the helm of the Jets' offense, he should be active as a runner or receiver.
Picks: Allen over 284.5 yards passing (-115), Carter over 69.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Marks: Carter has become the lead back for a Jets team that is likely to be playing from behind, so New York will be passing often late in the game. White will get another start at quarterback for the Jets, and he loves targeting Carter in the passing game. Carter already has seen 23 targets with White under center.
Pick: Carter over 3.5 receptions (-170)
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 42.5)
Kraemer: Pittsburgh has failed to cover eight straight games as a favorite, and the Steelers simply do not have the offense to blow teams out. They have not won a game by more than eight points all season. Meanwhile, the Lions are 4-1 ATS this season when getting at least a touchdown. It's also a great situation for the Lions, coming off a bye week while the Steelers are coming off a close Monday night game. Teams 0-5 or worse coming off a bye are 18-6 ATS since byes were reintroduced in 1990. The Lions also appear to be getting a lot healthier coming off the bye, enough to give me confidence they can keep it close.
Pick: Lions +9
Moody: Jared Goff has had ups and downs throughout his career, and that trend has continued with the Lions. This season, he has averaged 249.4 passing yards per game. Over the past five games, the Steelers have allowed an average of 252.2 passing yards per game to Justin Fields (291), Baker Mayfield (225), Geno Smith (209), Teddy Bridgewater (288) and Aaron Rodgers (248).
Picks: Goff over 238.5 passing yards (+100)
Marks: Jamaal Williams is dealing with the thigh injury that is not healing, so expect D'Andre Swift to get the lion's share of touches again this week. As for the Steelers, James Washington and Mason Rudolph played together at Oklahoma State and have a great connection. Washington's target share should increase with Rudolph replacing Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool out. In his last game, Washington ran a route on 70% of dropbacks.
Pick: Swift over 11.5 rushing attempts (-120), Washington over 3.5 receptions (+130), Washington over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, 51.5) at Washington Football Team
Bearman: So the Bills are favored by 13 vs. the Jets, Indy is favored by 10.5 over Jacksonville and yet the Buccaneers are laying less than 10 vs. Washington, which looks just as bad as the other two teams, and the Bucs are just as good as Buffalo and much better than Indy? While not an all apples to apples comparison here, I will take the Bucs and Tom Brady off a bye without laying double digits vs. Washington every day and twice on Sundays.
Is it fair to say Washington is as bad as the Jets and Jags? Washington has two wins, by a combined five points, over the Giants and Falcons and got blown out by everyone not named Denver. It is a league-worst 1-7 against the spread and 0-6 ATS against teams with winning records. Their -6.3 cover margin is tied with Miami and the Jets as second-worst to the Chiefs.
On the other side, Brady and the Bucs might be 0-4 ATS on road, but that includes the Brady returns game (at New England), at the Rams and a backdoor cover by Philly, as well as the loss two weeks ago at New Orleans, a team they never beat. This is a major step down in competition. Remember what happened after the Bucs' bye last year? They never lost again. That WFT defense that we all thought would be good this year? Dead last against the pass, allowing 286.8 yards per game. This should result in a field day for the Brady-led, league-leading pass offense (327.5 yards per game).
Pick: Bucs -9.5
Marks: The Bucs are coming off a bye and now face a Washington team that is 1-7 ATS this season. Tampa Bay's offense is the best in the NFL in red zone TD efficiency and Washington ranks 31st in the NFL in red zone conversion rate. Brady's WR corps is banged up, so expect Tyler Johnson build off his six targets from Week 8. Washington will be playing from behind, so I expect Terry McLaurin and J.D. McKissic to get a lot of volume this week, particularly in the fourth quarter.
Picks: Bucs -3.5 (in a 2-team, 6-point teaser), Brady over 2.5 touchdowns (+140), Brady over 298.5 passing yards (-115), McKissic over 29.5 receiving yards (-115), McLaurin over 5.5 receptions (-135)