What an absolutely wild Sunday in the NFL!
Four teams, yes FOUR teams, that were favored by a touchdown or more lost outright: the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. All but Buffalo (the biggest favorite of the bunch at 14.5 points) were upset on their home field.
With such shocking and massive defeats, this week's Power Rankings are sure to look a lot different. Let's dive in and see what they look like heading into Week 10.
Tennessee Titans (2)
Look, Mike Vrabel and the Titans deserve all the credit in the world for what they have done this season. They're 7-2 (best record in the AFC). They are 5-0 STRAIGHT UP as an outright underdog this season. They just bullied my Rams in LA without Derrick Henry. A tip of the cap is in order. But are they the No. 2 team in the NFL this season? I'm not so sure.
This week, they return to Nashville as a three-point favorite over the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans is 11th in these Power Rankings, and conventional wisdom tells us if Tennessee is in fact the second-most-powerful team in the league, they should be larger than a field goal favorite at home. The line is telling us these teams are almost identical on a neutral field! If that's the case, is New Orleans ranked too low or Tennessee ranked too high? I think it's the latter, so I'm betting on the Titans to regress from this high point in the season, especially without Henry.
Cleveland Browns (10) + New England Patriots (12)
Odell Beckham Jr. is out the door ... and the Browns promptly SMASH the very public Bengals 41-16 on Sunday. Maybe he really is that bad for Baker Mayfield? Cleveland can now refocus its offense on the considerable strength of its offensive line and the dynamic talent of Nick Chubb. In Week 10, they travel to New England to take on the Patriots as a one-point underdog.
This is an interesting spot for both teams. Each is coming off an impressive win and both are built on the strength of old-school football principles: run game plus defense. Whoever wins will be firmly entrenched in the AFC wild-card picture, while the losing team would drop to 5-5 and may be on the outside looking in. I don't like betting against Bill Belichick, but I think the Browns are the better team so I'll take them to win the game outright. You can even tease them six points up to +7 and the the total up to 51.5.
Indianapolis Colts (19)
This is the one team ranked in the bottom half that I like the most. Although they are just 4-5 on the season, the Colts own a +32 point differential. That's better than the 6-2 Ravens (+26). Carson Wentz is playing much better now that he appears healthy. The offensive line is also finally healthy and anchored by Quenton Nelson. Michael Pittman Jr. has emerged as a true alpha receiver. Jonathan Taylor might be the scariest back in the NFL now that Derrick Henry is out. And the defense is dominant against the run (1st in the NFL in rush defense EPA and rush defense DVOA). On Sunday, they welcome the Jaguars to Indy as a 10.5-point favorite. Yes, the Jags just beat the Bills, but I don't see another massive upset coming for Urban & Co.
IF this number falls to 10.0 or below, I'm hammering Indy.