As soon as the NFL games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 10!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 9-5-11
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 10 games
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 49.5)
FPI implied line: Packers -1
We're dealing with quarterback uncertainty on both sides here, with Aaron Rodgers first eligible to return from the reserve/COVID-19 list the day before this game and Russell Wilson recovering from an injured finger. Acknowledging that we don't know if either is true, the FPI implied line you see above is working on an assumption that both will play in the Week 10 game.
However, even we make Rodgers 100% to play and Wilson just 50% to play, FPI still likes the Seahawks here (and would make the implied line: -3). So as long as you feel there's at least a moderate chance of Wilson playing, then FPI is all on in Seattle.
So why the strong discrepancy? This is one I could have picked out before seeing any numbers: Seattle is a team that FPI is particularly keen on, and the Packers are the opposite. I often cite expected points added numbers in this space, but what do you say we keep this one simple: The Packers are 7-2 with a +19 point differential and the Seahawks are 3-5 with a +12 point differential. Insert thinking face emoji here.
Oh, and to top it off: Entering Week 9, the Seahawks had played the fourth-toughest schedule while the Packers had played the 18 toughest (though that obviously moved up playing the Chiefs).
One other reason I'm intrigued by Seattle beyond FPI? The Seahawks rank third in EPA per play on early downs but 31st in EPA per play on third and fourth down. That's a wild spread! The latter group is far fewer plays but much higher leverage. Even if they both regress toward the middle, I would have to imagine that would be a net positive given how critical third-down success rates are.
FPI's side: Seahawks +5.5
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 43.5)
FPI implied line: Steelers -7
Pittsburgh has yet to play in Week 9, but that doesn't mean you can't fade the Steelers in Week 10 already.
What's the most important and predictable part of the NFL? Offense. More specifically, passing offense. And you know what? These are two bad passing offenses: The Lions and Steelers rank 30th and 26th, respectively.
So I think what FPI is thinking here (note: the model just sees offense, not passing offense, but the point remains either way) is ... could the difference between these teams really be that large given this crucial similarity?
That being said: They almost couldn't be more different on the other side of the ball. The Lions have been, and quite possibly are, the worst defense in football. The Steelers' defense has been very good -- though at No. 8 in EPA per play, a bit below expectation. Still, a healthy prior means FPI still considers T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick & Co. a top-three defense going forward. And yet, that isn't enough to make up for the aforementioned poor offense, at least relative to this early spread.
FPI's side: Lions +9
Futures
Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (+1000)
FPI projection: 19% (+427)
When are the Cardinals going to get respect? They just beat the 49ers handily with Colt McCoy at quarterback instead of MVP contender Kyler Murray!
After Arizona's victory and the losses by the Packers and Rams on Sunday, the Cardinals' chances to earn the No. 1 seed in the conference skyrocketed from 25% to 44%.
We're talking about an 8-1 team that's been really, really good here! Through the 4 p.m. ET window, Arizona ranks third in EPA per play on offense and second in EPA per play on defense this season. To put that in context, the Bucs are one spot above Arizona on offense and five spots back on defense. And yet Tampa Bay is +600 to win the Super Bowl.
Now don't get me wrong: Priors are a thing. And there's good reason why Tampa Bay has a little respect built in. But that's still a decent-sized gap considering the Cardinals have slightly outplayed the Bucs to this point in the season.
Early Week 10 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Baltimore Ravens (-7, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday
Buffalo Bills (-13, 48) at New York Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5 51.5) at Washington Football Team
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 52)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 44.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47.5)
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 44)
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-2.5, 44.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 52)
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10, 45.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 49.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 51) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 48.5) at San Francisco 49ers