As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 7!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 5-3-10
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 7 games
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-5, 44)
FPI's Implied Line: Browns -3
In fact, FPI also isn't aware of the slew of injuries Cleveland played with today. Both starting tackles -- Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin -- were out. So were Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry. Plus, Kareem Hunt got injured during the game. On one hand: The sportsbooks know that the Browns weren't at 100% when they got knocked around by the Cardinals, and that might not be indicative of future performance. On the other: We don't know how many of those players will be back in Week 7.
Frankly, neither team involved in this contest looked good in Week 6. And FPI adjusted accordingly: the model knocked down its Browns' rating by 1.5 points given how badly they lost at home -- even to a good team. Denver's loss was closer -- 34-24 -- but to a worse opponent, and its rating was dropped by almost exactly a point.
FPI's side: Broncos +5
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-10, 49)
FPI's Implied Line: Packers -7
Let's get this out of the way: Aaron Rodgers was great on Sunday. He recorded a QBR of 80.2 and -- as of this writing during Sunday Night Football -- he's moved up to fifth on the season in the metric. But FPI just isn't buying the Packers the way the sportsbooks are.
The disagreement stems, I presume, from Green Bay's Week 1 -- a 38-3 loss to the Saints, the Packers' only defeat.
Over the course of the season, the Packers rank 11th and 18th in expected points added per play on offense and defense, respectively (through the 1 p.m. window Sunday). But if we exclude Week 1, those ranks jump to third and 12th, respectively. Sure, we could write off the season opener as a fluke -- and maybe that's what the futures market is doing. But FPI would say: We have such a limited sample of each of these teams, why would we throw out a valuable data point? When the model considers the entirety of Green Bay's work this season (plus its preseason prior), the Packers are only the ninth-best team in the league. This is also a big reason why FPI thinks the Vikings are a value to win the NFC North at +650 (FPI would make it +456).
Washington, frankly, has not looked great. They were below average in EPA/P on both sides of the ball before a 31-13 loss to the Chiefs. They have played a decently tough schedule (their SOS rank was 12th entering Sunday, when they played one of the best teams in the league). Ultimately even with Washington's tremendously disappointing defense, the model believes these teams are closer than the 10-point spread suggests.
FPI's side: WFT +10
Early Week 7 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-5, 44)
Sunday
Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 44) at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (Pk, 48)
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-6.5, 43)
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-10, 49)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 47.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 56.5) at Tennessee Titans
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15.5, 50)
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 48)
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17, 48)
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5, 48)
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 44.5)
Monday