As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers to those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 4!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 2-2-5
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 4 games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 50.5) at New England Patriots
FPI's implied line: Buccaneers -2.5
The Brady Bowl!
At first blush, I assumed this was due to FPI moving on the Buccaneers and the oddsmakers holding steady, but I don't think that's actually it. Because the Buccaneers' loss came on the road against the Rams and Tampa Bay's offense was largely successful, the Bucs' FPI rating barely moved at all.
So where's this difference coming from? It has to be the Patriots. New England dropped by roughly 1.7 points after they were handled fairly easily by the Saints. Mac Jones threw three interceptions (though his 49 QBR wasn't that bad). And through the 1 p.m. ET window, the Patriots ranked 26th in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play. But at the same time, the Patriots do have the sixth-best EPA per play allowed on defense (again, through the 1 p.m. window), which is why FPI has them as a very slightly above average team.
And don't get me wrong: The defense didn't appear above average on Sunday versus the Saints. But over the three-game sample, there is some hope there -- even if one of those games came against the Jets.
Are there emotional or narrative factors affecting the line here? Well, FPI has no emotions, so it has no idea what we're talking about. And frankly, I'm not sure who that would push the line toward anyway. I don't think Bill Belichick or Tom Brady needs any extra incentive to win. Bottom line: FPI thinks the Bucs ought to be road favorites but that New England might be a tougher out than a 5.5-point spread might suggest.
FPI's side: Patriots +5.5
Futures
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl (+1000)
FPI projection: 24%
Folks, you heard it here first. FPI has a new No. 1 team, and it's the Buffalo Bills. That's right, while the Chiefs and Bucs were proving they can be vulnerable, the Bills redeemed themselves offensively by putting on a show against Washington. The Josh Allen worries? They're slipping away after he posted an 83.5 QBR on Sunday.
This is actually the second week in a row we're on this futures bet. FPI liked the Bills at 13-1 this time last Sunday, and it moved to 12-1 during the week, before dropping to 10-1 after Sunday's action.
I will be the first to admit, FPI can be jumpy on the trigger finger early in the season with these newly anointed top teams. But 10-1 means we're not even in the same ballpark. I bet that number comes down before long.
Carolina Panthers to win NFC South (+600)
FPI projection: 26% chance
The amazing thing here is that FPI really isn't all the way in on the Panthers. Through the 4 p.m. games, we make them just the 15th-best team in football. While they're 3-0, they've played a fairly easy schedule that already has featured two of the worst teams in football -- the Jets and Texans. And our QB ratings are certainly no fan of Sam Darnold, who has a long track record of poor play in the NFL.
But, still, they look like a value here. The Panthers might be the third-best team in the division, but they're not a bad team, and they do have a one-game lead -- and that actually isn't nothing. Plus, just because we think the Bucs and Saints are better doesn't mean they definitely will register a better record. After all, they've both shown they can be beat -- and in the Saints' case, by the Panthers!
Early Week 4 Lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 45.5)
Sunday
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 44)
Washington at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 48.5)
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-17.5, 48)
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 50)
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.5, 43.5)
Cleveland Browns (-1) at Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-8, 43.5)
Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 46) at New York Jets
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6, 53.5)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (N/A)
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1, 45)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (N/A)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 49) at New England Patriots
Monday
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 52.5)