Intro by Doug Kezirian
Early season handicapping typically forces bettors to challenge themselves with separating true indicators from misleading occurrences. Both Wisconsin (-6.5) and Notre Dame might be prime examples of this, ahead of their much-anticipated ranked showdown at Soldier Field on Saturday afternoon.
The Badgers opened the season with a home loss to Penn State, despite outgaining the Nittany Lions and dominating time of possession by 24 minutes. However, four turnovers and three empty trips inside Penn State's 10-yard line doomed them.
Meanwhile, the undefeated Irish are one late touchdown against Purdue last weekend from being 0-3 ATS, and they also could very well be 1-2 overall. Notre Dame was nearly upset by Toledo as 16.5-point home favorites but rallied for a game-winning touchdown with just over one minute remaining.
"Wiscy is off a bye against a Notre Dame team that hasn't looked great so far but tends to be more suited to cover games in the underdog role," Circa Sports sportsbook director Matt Metcalf told ESPN, sharing that this game has drawn a solid amount of sharp wagers on both sides. "We will most likely need the Badgers to win by seven or more, once it's all said and done."
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (7-9 overall, 3-0 last week), Bill Connelly (9-6, 3-2), Tyler Fulghum (3-2, 1-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (6-7, 1-3) and David M. Hale (2-5, 0-0) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 4 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Saturday's best bets
No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5, 46.5), Noon ET
(at Soldier Field, Chicago)
Fortenbaugh: This game has "grind" written all over it. For starters, Wisconsin's glacial-like offense has had two weeks to prepare for a Notre Dame outfit that narrowly escaped showdowns with Florida State and Toledo before defeating Purdue...despite the fact that the Irish were outgained in the game by five total yards. Additionally, the under has cashed in each of Notre Dame's last five games played on a neutral site, and given that this game will be played in front of a packed house at Soldier Field in Chicago, I'm betting both teams ease into the water and feel each other out before trying anything too risky.
Pick: First half under 23 points
Kezirian: This just feels like way too many points, given the Irish are avoiding Camp Randall. I understand the reluctance with Notre Dame, given the close calls in all three wins. However, while Wisconsin probably should have beaten Penn State, the Badgers still look a notch below their usual selves. With a low total of 46.5, I will gladly take nearly a touchdown with a live underdog on a neutral site.
Pick: Notre Dame +6.5
Boise State Broncos (-9, 70) at Utah State Aggies, Noon ET
Connelly: The Body Clocks Game of the Week. BSU and USU are kicking off at 10 a.m. local time, which is silly in a bunch of different ways. I don't know what effects that might have on either team, but I do know this: Utah State has been incredibly lucky so far this season.
My postgame win expectancy number takes all the key, predictive stats from a given game (the things that end up going into the SP+ machine), tosses them into the air and says, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time." Utah State is 3-0, but the Aggies' postgame win expectancy was 27% in the narrow win over Washington State and 29% against Air Force. SP+ sees a team that was more likely to go 1-2 with these stats than 3-0, and now the Aggies face a Boise State team that (a) was fortunate to stay as close as it did against UCF and Oklahoma State but (b) is still six points from being undefeated itself against a harder schedule. SP+ projects the Broncos' advantage at 14.4 points, which offers one of the bigger line-vs.-projection cushions of the week.
Pick: Boise State -9
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at Army Black Knights (-8, 50), Noon ET
Fortenbaugh: This game should be won in the trenches where Army's third-ranked rushing attack (331 yards per game) holds a sizeable edge over a Redhawks defense that is surrendering an average of 5.5 yards per carry to the opposition (109th in NCAA). Take note that the Army offense boasts an average time of possession of 40:47 per game this season, something that helps keep its own defense fresh while decimating opponents who have watched the Black Knights hang an average of 44.3 points per game this year.
Pick: Army -8
Toledo Rockets (-4.5, 56.5) at Ball State Cardinals, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: Toledo has left what we'll call an eclectic set of impressions thus far, pummeling Norfolk State as it should, nearly beating Notre Dame, then losing by 16 to a Colorado State team that had looked mostly hopeless in its first two games. It's hard to trust the Rockets too much, and they've fallen from 53rd in SP+ after one week to 78th after three. Not great, but better than a Ball State team that fell to 110th after getting pummeled by 33 points at Wyoming. The Cardinal defense can't knock anyone off-schedule to save its life, and their quick passing game on offense hasn't gotten untracked yet. If Toledo has offered conflicting impressions, Ball State most certainly hasn't. That's not a good thing.
Pick: Toledo -4.5
Washington State Cougars at Utah Utes (-14, 54.5), 2:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: I tweeted over the weekend that I need to stop betting Utah games. Well, no one said I am the poster child for discipline and judgment. However, I think I have a legitimate case -- at least that's what I'm telling myself. The Utes switched quarterbacks mid-game, and that sparked a second-half comeback that fell just short in triple-overtime. Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer got benched and has since left the program. I think the Utes respond in a very positive way behind Cam Rising, who threw three touchdown passes in that comeback attempt. Let's just say there are reports that Brewer's departure will be addition by subtraction for the locker room.
Meanwhile, Washington State just got outscored 38-0 at home in the second half by USC, which had just fired its coach. Wazzu also lost to Utah State at home, so I do not exactly have high hopes for the Cougars traveling to a Utah team off consecutive losses. The Utes are much more physical and should dominate the trenches and play with some life, thanks to this QB change. If they don't cover, then I will really swear off Utah...maybe.
Pick: Utah -14
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 19 Michigan Wolverines (-19, 52), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Hale: Rutgers is 3-0. That's not a sentence we'll get to write often, so let's take a moment to appreciate its unique elegance.
OK, that's the last positive we'll be saying about Rutgers. The record looks nice, but the wins are against Temple, Syracuse and Delaware -- hardly a murderer's row. Now let's look at some key underlying metrics: Rutgers' net yards per rush is -1.54, fourth-worst among Power 5 teams, despite that weak schedule. Meanwhile, Michigan's ground game is destroying people. Then there's the woeful state of the Scarlet Knights' offense. Rutgers' explosive play rate is just 6%. Only UConn and Louisiana-Monroe are worse. Are we sold on Michigan as a real contender? Not yet. But we're pretty certain Rutgers' hot start is a mirage, and the real Scarlet Knights will be revealed this week.
Pick: Michigan -19
Louisville Cardinals (-2.5, 63) at Florida State Seminoles, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Hale: Louisville has rebounded nicely since the Week 1 stomping at the hands of Ole Miss -- a game that looks ever more understandable in retrospect -- with wins over Eastern Kentucky and UCF. Malik Cunningham has found his footing and is playing with confidence, and the play calling is rounding into shape with a new set of skill-position talent. But this bet is all about Florida State. What's the motivation for the Seminoles at this point? This team looks broken, and it's easy to envision a scenario where the slightest setbacks will cause the team to fold completely. The home-field advantage may not be much, as the crowd in Tallahassee may have more animosity for their own team than the visitors. Add in the terrible matchup between FSU's woeful passing game and a very good Louisville secondary, and this should be a Cards win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Louisville -2.5
Wyoming Cowboys (-29.5, 55) at UConn Huskies, 3:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: This game only stays within 30 points if Wyoming wants it to. The Cowboys stuttered out of the gates, struggling on offense in a 19-16 win over Montana State and watching their defense collapse in a 50-43 win over NIU (it was 42-16 late in the third quarter). But their upside was clear, and they put forth a sustained effort in blowing out Ball State.
Meanwhile, UConn has underachieved by 10 points per game against the spread so far -- impressive considering how many points the books have given them -- and only covered against Army because the Black Knights felt mercy after going up 42-0 at halftime. The Huskies also managed to lose to Holy Cross, a team that turned around and lost by two touchdowns to Merrimack College. Freshman quarterback Tyler Phommachanh looked decent in the second half against Army and earned the start, but Wyoming should still destroy this team.
Pick: Wyoming -29.5
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-13.5, 54.5) at Georgia Southern Eagles, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: Georgia Southern has been outscored by two FBS opponents by a combined 83-16 and barely beat Gardner-Webb. The Eagles are underachieving by nearly 20 points per game against the spread. Aside from a big run play or two, they have shown little life on either side of the ball. Louisiana's 20-point loss to Texas in Week 1 may have suggested a lower ceiling than we initially thought, but the Cajuns did just wallop an Ohio team that is, at worst, very close to Georgia Southern's caliber. How this isn't a three-touchdown spread, I have no idea.
Pick: Louisiana -13.5
Tennessee Volunteers at No. 11 Florida Gators (-19.5, 63), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Fortenbaugh: After pushing Alabama to the brink last Saturday in their biggest contest of the season, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to watch Florida come out flat against a Volunteers squad that has been looking forward to this game for two weeks despite waxing Tennessee Tech in the intermediary last weekend. I'm not willing to bet on the Volunteers holding it together for a full four quarters against a Gators team that made some excellent halftime adjustments last weekend, but I do think this is a terrific price given the likelihood that Florida experiences a hangover from the Crimson Tide matchup.
Pick: Tennessee first half +10.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 20 Michigan State Spartans (-5, 52), 7 p.m. ET
Hale: A quick look into my process on this one...
Angel on my shoulder: Don't bet on Nebraska. It's Nebraska! Why would you do this to yourself? Stay away. Enjoy your Saturday.
Devil on my shoulder: Did you know Adrian Martinez is averaging nearly 10 yards per pass?
Angel: Have you not watched the last three seasons of Huskers football?
Devil: That Illinois game was just a blip. This team has made real strides.
Angel: Michigan State is much better than Illinois.
Devil: The Spartans are going to be high on their own headlines after a 3-0 start. They're due for a disaster.
Angel: That's it, I'm leaving.
Devil: *giggles maniacally*
Pick: Nebraska +5
No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6, 46), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: Oklahoma State beat Missouri State by seven and Tulsa by five. I'm not going to try to convince anyone that Kansas State is genuinely one of the 25 best teams in the country right now, but the Wildcats are better than Missouri State and Tulsa.
This game features two strong defenses, neither of which give you many big plays or commit huge mistakes. It also features two offenses that can't do jack when they fall off-schedule -- KSU is a dreadful 119th in passing downs success rate, and OSU is an elite-by-comparison 83rd. But the Wildcats actually sometimes stay on schedule. Deuce Vaughn and Joe Ervin are averaging 5.8 yards per carry and are good both between and outside the tackles. KSU tends to move the chains a couple of times before punting, and the field position should tilt in the Wildcats' favor. OSU is clearly comfortable in close games and may survive, but not by much.
Pick: Kansas State +6
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-45, 58), 7:30 p.m. ET, SECN
Kezirian: You think Nick Saban is riding his team after blowing a double-digit lead -- and nearly the game -- to Florida? Remember, the Tide have Ole Miss on deck and the Rebels will be coming off a bye. Keep in mind Lane Kiffin's squad nearly upset Bama last year by hanging 48 points. I think the Tide will be ready to rock from the start and call off the dogs in the fourth quarter.
Additionally, I genuinely doubt Southern Miss will score, and first downs will be few and far between. QB Trey Lowe will miss this game due to a foot injury. His replacement, freshman Ty Keyes, last week threw for 157 yards and two interceptions without a touchdown against Troy. The Golden Eagles have been outscored 52-16 by their two FBS opponents, and let's just say Troy and South Alabama aren't exactly powerhouses. What do you think Bama can do under the lights at Bryant-Denny Stadium? I am riding this game from the start with a market that sure feels way off on the first quarter lines.
Pick: Alabama first half -28, Alabama first quarter -10.5 (DraftKings), first half over 34, first quarter over 13.5 (DraftKings)
No. 21 North Carolina Tar Heels (-12.5, 63) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 7:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Hats off to Georgia Tech for nearly upsetting Clemson, but this is still a pedestrian team. The Tar Heels stumbled in the opener at a raucous Lane Stadium but flexed some muscles last week with a 20-point over Virginia. QB Sam Howell seems to have rediscovered his mojo, thanks to five touchdowns and 307 yards passing against the Cavs. I think we see a bit of a hangover with Tech, and it feels like two teams headed in opposite directions -- at least for this weekend. UNC should blow the Jackets out at home.
Pick: North Carolina -12.5