Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us. Sure, you can bet on the spreads and over/unders for games, but don't forget about player props.
Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays. This week's best bets are listed below in no particular order.
For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our recent staff roundtable on the topic.
Parris Campbell over 2.5 receptions (+115), over 23.5 receiving yards (-115)
These lines are way too low for a third-year receiver who will play a top-three role at wideout for a Colts team that is missing T.Y. Hilton. When we last saw Campbell for a full game, he posted a 6-71-0 receiving line on nine targets in Week 1 last season. His work in the short area should make hitting the reception total fairly easy (and it's plus money!), and he'll have a hard time falling short of 24 yards if he does, in fact, catch three balls. The Seattle defense allowed the most receptions and third-most receiving yards to wide receivers last season and continues to try and patch up its corner situation via trades and signings.
Projection: 3.6 receptions for 43.6 yards.
Kenny Golladay over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Golladay has missed practice time over the past month, but if the Giants' top wideout plays this week (as expected), he shouldn't have much trouble clearing this mark. In fact, he has hit it in 10 consecutive games that he has played in full tracing back to Week 12 in 2019 (79.7 average during the run). Over the past three seasons, Golladay has reached 40 yards in 29 of his 35 full games (83%). Barring a report that he will be active but severely limited, Golladay will be a candidate for six to eight targets and should blow by this line.
Projection: 61.7 receiving yards
Aaron Jones under 15.5 carries (-125)
Running backs have produced 3,162 yards on 880 carries against the Saints over the past three seasons, both of which are easily lowest in the NFL. We don't want to get too caught up in historical data as we look forward, but three straight seasons of dominance by a unit is interesting. Meanwhile, Jones averaged 13.8 carries per game last season for the Packers and sits at 13.5 over the past three seasons. He appeared in 16 games in 2020 (including the playoffs) and reached 16 carries five times (only twice after Week 3). Jamaal Williams is gone, but 2020 second-round pick AJ Dillon will play a sizable role as a rusher.
Projection: 11.8 carries
Jonnu Smith over 2.5 receptions (-135)
Believe it or not, Smith fell short of three catches in nine of his 16 games (including nine of his final 12) last season. Of course, that was with Tennessee, and he's now expected to be a featured target in New England after signing a four-year, $50 million contract. Smith is primarily used in the short area, so a combination of high-percentage throws and designed screens will give him a good shot of reaching three-plus catches most weeks.
Projection: 3.4
Michael Carter over 5.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Jets will roll into Week 1 with Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, Josh Adams and fourth-round rookie Carter at running back. It's one of the shakier depth charts in the league and sets up Carter for, at least, a situational role in his pro debut. Carter is a bit undersized, but his best asset is his pass-catching ability, so it would be a bit of a surprise if he's not targeted a few times. Two or three targets (projected for 2.2) should easily yield at least one catch and allow him to reach 6 receiving yards, especially against a work-in-progress Carolina defense that allowed the third-most catches to backs last season.
Projection (assuming 2.2 targets): 12.7 receiving yards
Phillip Lindsay over 4.5 receiving yards (-110)
It's unknown how the RB depth chart will sort out in Houston, but Lindsay is listed alongside Mark Ingram II as co-starters, so he figures to play, at least, a situational role against a shaky Jaguars defense in Week 1. That role is likely to yield a target or two, and that's all we'd need to reach 5 yards. During his time in Denver, Lindsay wasn't involved much in the passing game (especially last season), but he still cleared this line in 24 of 42 games (57%). The Jacksonville defense remains one of the shakiest units in the league after ranking eighth or worse in receptions, receiving yards, yards per target and catch rate allowed to backs in 2020.
Projection: 9.1 yards
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 TD passes (+120)
Plus money on Jackson tossing two or more touchdowns is hard to pass up. He averaged 2.3 per game during his MVP campaign in 2019 (2.4 during the regular season) and 1.5 per game last season (1.7). Jackson has reached two passing TDs in 18 of 33 games (55%) tracing back to the start of 2019, including nine of 15 regular-season games in 2020. Baltimore is expected to lean on the pass more this season, and that may especially be the case in Week 1 after three of the team's top running backs went down with season-ending injuries. The Ravens have a terrific Week 1 matchup against a Raiders defense that allowed 28 passing TDs last season and remains one of the league's shakier units on paper.
Projection: 1.8 TD passes
Carson Wentz over 0.5 INTs (+105)
Wentz tied for the league lead in interceptions with 15 last season despite appearing in only 11 full games. In fact, prior to being benched, those 15 interceptions were four more than anyone else. Wentz threw at least one interception in nine of 12 games last season, though he did so in only 17 of 41 games (42%) during the three previous seasons. Seattle's defense isn't very intimidating, but considering the Colts are a home underdog, the odds are Wentz will have the game on his shoulders in the second half, which increases pass attempts and the likelihood of an interception. Especially after his rough 2020, taking the over at plus money makes sense.
Projection: 0.9 INTs
Sam Darnold over 0.5 INTs (+100)
It's "revenge game" week right out of the gate for Darnold as he and the Panthers take on the Jets on Sunday. The 2018 third overall pick has struggled with interceptions throughout his career, tossing 39 in 38 games. He has ranked in the 76th percentile in INT rate all three seasons. Darnold has thrown at least one interception in 28 of 38 games (74%), including six of his 12 games last season. Even against a Jets team with a very suspect cornerback room, Darnold is a strong bet for a few mistakes.
Projection: 0.9 INTs
Marquez Valdes-Scantling under 2.5 receptions (+140)
MVS received quite a bit of hype during the offseason, but the fourth-year receiver has yet to clear 41 receptions in a season (2.0 receptions per game over 52 outings). He appeared in 18 games last season and reached three catches in only half of those (three of which were during games missed by Allen Lazard). This, despite playing 833 snaps, which was 31 behind Davante Adams for most among Packers wide receivers. This season, Valdes-Scantling will need to fend off Lazard, rookie Amari Rodgers and newcomer Randall Cobb for snaps and targets. Considering his resume, the +140 juice makes this an easy under.
Projection: 1.3 receptions