Intro by Doug Kezirian
It's rare to have a player beloved by both the betting public and house, but Patrick Mahomes was just that in 2020.
"He was the darling of the bettors last year and definitely the bookmakers where they had that unbelievable streak of winning but not covering," MGM director of race and sports Jeff Stoneback told ESPN, referencing Kansas City's stretch of nine straight wins with only one cover (1-8 ATS).
Recreational bettors remained undeterred and willing to lay points, and that appears as though it's carrying over into 2021. The Chiefs (-6) represent about 75% of the betting handle for Sunday's game against Cleveland, according to Stoneback, who doesn't anticipate a need to shade the line once the weekend arrives. "It won't be as one-sided as if they were playing the [Houston] Texans or someone like that."
Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Tyler Fulghum, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Seth Walder of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday night.
8:20 p.m. ET game
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 46.5)
Kezirian: The Bears are who we think they are, as the late Denny Green insinuated. They have a below-average quarterback in Andy Dalton with limited weapons and a respectable defense. That is no match for a Rams squad with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. While Matthew Stafford is highly regarded by most bettors, he will still outperform expectations. That's how strongly I believe he jells with Sean McVay and how much the Rams upgraded at the QB position. Jared Goff had his moments, but for the most part he was not the answer. Stafford will shine once he rids himself of the Lions stench, and I think this a big performance for the home team.
Pick: Rams -7.5; Rams -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Buccaneers -2
Fortenbaugh: All the talk in Chicago this preseason has been about the quarterback battle between veteran Andy Dalton and first-round pick Justin Fields, but don't lose sight of the fact that the Bears are traveling to Los Angeles in Week 1 with a highly suspect offensive line and big question marks surrounding the cornerback position. That's bad news considering the fact that Aaron Donald and the Rams ranked first in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense last season. Take note that head coach Sean McVay is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in Week 1 since taking over as head coach of the Rams, with an offense that is scoring an average of 32.2 points per game and a defense that is surrendering an average of just 16.5 points per game.
Pick: Rams -7.5; Rams -1.5 in 6-point teaser with 49ers -1.5
Bearman: A great nugget from Stats & Information's Mackenzie Kraemer shows that this is the fourth consecutive year these two teams, with Matt Nagy and Sean McVay as head coaches, are meeting and that the previous three went under the total. Not just under the total, but the average combined score was 26.3, with scores of 15-6, 17-7 and 24-10. None of those came close to the total and all three were prime-time games, just like this one.
Yes, this is a different year, but how much has changed, as we can't just go off last year. Well, the Bears drafted Fields with a high first-round draft pick, but Nagy is going with Dalton, who is among the worst prime-time players in the league, going 0-6 outright (1-5 ATS) on Sunday night games. The Rams traded Goff for Stafford in the offseason and then lost starting RB Cam Akers before the first preseason game. So, we have Stafford without Akers vs. Dalton on Sunday night. Add in the Rams' top-ranked defense from 2020 and give me the under.
Pick: Under 46.5
4 p.m. ET games
Denver Broncos (-3, 42) at New York Giants
Walder: It's always eyebrow-raising when FPI and the market disagree on a Week 1 game, because FPI in the preseason is largely based on season win totals relative to a team's schedule. So its ratings for the Giants and Broncos are from the win total market, and yet they aren't matching up here, where the Broncos are 3-point favorites while FPI makes the Giants slight favorites. And look, I'm skeptical of the Giants because of what I project to be the worst pass protection unit in the league and a shaky quarterback. But that was true in the win total market, as well. I'll trust the model and the long-term market over this single-game line.
Based on the throws Jerry Jeudy was targeted on last season, an average receiver would have accumulated 62.2 receiving yards per game last season. That's according to the depth of target, expected completion percentage and expected YAC on those throws, according to metrics from NFL Next Gen Stats. But here's the thing: Jeudy averaged only 53.5 yards per game, a pretty dramatic underachievement. While I'm sure some of that was on Jeudy, Drew Lock recorded a completion percentage over expectation of -4% last season, third worst among QBs with at least 200 pass attempts. Teddy Bridgewater was up at +2%, above average. By the QB switch alone we should expect more completions, and therefore yards, from Jeudy in 2021.
Pick: Giants +3, Jeudy over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Giants scrambled in the 11th hour to improve their offensive line which still has a ton of issues. Saquon Barkley will be on a pitch count, Kenny Golladay is coming off of a hamstring injury and Kadarius Toney is feeling the effects of post Covid 19. A struggling Giants defense will face a juggernaut in this Broncos defense led by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb.
Pick: Broncos -3, under 41.5, Jones under 219.5 pass yards
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 54.5)
Fulghum: I'm eager to bet a lot of unders early in the NFL season as road QBs get reacclimated to playing in front of loud capacity crowds. It's always dangerous to take an under when Patrick Mahomes is involved, but this is the highest total on the board and the Chiefs were just 5-5 to the over at home last season (playoffs included). Cleveland has as much talent as any team in the league on defense and likes to run the ball on offense. I know Mahomes missed a lot of time in last year's playoff game, but that divisional-round matchup produced just 39 points at Arrowhead Stadium.
Pick: Under 54.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-3, 43.5)
Bearman: I was all set to take the Dolphins here for a couple of reasons: (1) I believe they are the better team and are getting three points, and (2) underdogs in divisional games are hitting at a 66% clip in Week 1 over the past 12 years. What has me nervous is the likely DNP by OL Austin Jackson due to being a COVID close contact. The Dolphins are young and not deep on the O-line and missing Jackson is a concern for second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa and his new weapons. Instead, I am going to play it a little safe and take the under.
These teams played to 22-12 and 21-11 scores last year, never threatening either over. The Patriots will be breaking in a rookie QB and don't have a ton of weapons on offense, while adding/returning more defensive talent (based on net approx. value over replacement) than any team since 2001, according to our friends at Football Outsiders. Miami returns one of the top defenses from last season (led NFL in takeaways) and added rookie first-round picks Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland. It might take a few games for Tua to get the new Miami offense going, and without Jackson that becomes harder. If I had to pick a side, I'd lean Miami and the points, but I will be all over the under in what should be a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Pick: Under 43.5
Marks: The Pats uncharacteristically will start a rookie at QB. In order to make certain Mac Jones has success, the Pats will be committed to running the ball, and I expect Damien Harris to be a huge factor in the game plan. The Pats spent a ton of money in free agency, and I'm most excited about the addition of Jonnu Smith, who will be a terrific safety valve for Jones.
Pick: Harris over 74.5 rush/receiving yards, Smith over 2.5 receptions
Green Bay Packers (-4, 50) vs. New Orleans Saints (in Jacksonville, Florida)
Schatz: We're going to have to change the way we think about the Saints in the post-Drew Brees era. They are no longer going to be an offensive juggernaut. Instead, this team is likely to compete for the playoffs based on defense. The Saints' defense has been in the DVOA top 10 for four straight seasons, and we're predicting that they make it a fifth in 2021. Our projections also put the Green Bay defense a little bit better than average after being close to average the past two seasons. And don't forget that this isn't a New Orleans home game anymore, which means wide receivers won't be racing up and down the turf inside a dome. It's hard to go under on any game with Aaron Rodgers involved, but our simulations have this game going under 68% of the time.
Pick: Under 50
Marks: Latavius Murray refused to take a pay cut and now is no longer with the Saints. That tells me all I need to know about Jones, and Sean Payton's confidence in his abilities. Tony Jones Jr. will be the legit No. 2 back behind Alvin Kamara and will get his share of carries in Week 1.
Pick: Jones over 22.5 rushing yards
1 p.m. ET games
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-4, 44.5)
Fortenbaugh: As a rookie head coach with limited offseason preparation time due to the pandemic, Matt Rhule took a Panthers club that ranked 31st in scoring defense in 2019 and transformed it into the league's 18th-ranked scoring defense in 2020 ... despite the retirement of the unit's best player in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Expect another big jump this year courtesy of a full offseason of prep time, as well as the additions of first-round cornerback Jaycee Horn, free-agent linebacker Haason Reddick and free-agent defensive end Morgan Fox.
On the flip side, the offense welcomes back dynamic dual-threat running back Christian McCaffrey and prepares for life with quarterback Sam Darnold, who should benefit immensely now that he has escaped the grasp of former Jets coach Adam Gase. Speaking of the Jets, expect some serious growing pains with both rookie head coach Robert Saleh and rookie signal-caller Zach Wilson.
Pick: Panthers -4
Marks: I'm still not sold that Wilson is ready for the NFL. Yes, he has a cannon for an arm, but I need to see him work his magic during off-scripted plays and against first-string defenses. I love Darnold in this spot this week against his former team. Darnold will face a gaggle of rookie corners, two sophomore corners, and none drafted higher than the fifth round.
Pick: Panthers -3 first half, Panthers over 22 points (+130), Robby Anderson TD (+190)
Walder: Quarterbacks have significant control over their sack rates, and Darnold had an 8.3% sack rate last season -- third-highest in the league. I know what you're thinking: that was with the Jets! There's two reasons why I don't think that matters much. First, PFF recently provided evidence that a QB's hit rate is stable even after changing teams. And second, the Panthers project to have a poor pass blocking offensive line. Quinnen Williams vs. Pat Elflein is a total mismatch, and I'd bank on him sacking his old quarterback at least once.
Pick: Jets total sacks over 2.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (-3, 52)
Fulghum: This game looks like an offensive and fantasy gold mine to me. We already know about the pace at which Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals like to play. Adding Rondale Moore (and maybe AJ Green?) to the offense should give it even more juice. On the other side, the Titans have had one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. Reminder: The Titans are 21-4-1 to the over since Tannehill became the starting QB. Add Julio Jones to AJ Brown and Derrick Henry and this offense will be a nightmare to match up with, even for great defenses. Fortunately for those who like the over, neither defense in this game is expected to be very good this season, with both particularly thin in the secondary.
Pick: Over 52
Walder: DeAndre Hopkins' expected receiving yards per game, based on air yards, expected completion percentage and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats was 63.6 last season. Here's the thing: That expectation is based on an average receiver, and Hopkins is no average receiver. We know we ought to assume he'll blow way past that, like he did last season. But a 22-yard differential between the line and last year's per-game expectation is high, and the closest comparison to Hopkins' underlying numbers was Justin Jefferson -- and his Week 1 line is 75.5. I'm willing to bank on this line being just a bit too high.
Pick: Hopkins under 85.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: I love the over in this matchup, considering both teams rank in the top three in fast play pace rate, each averaging over 53 offensive snaps per game. Last season, games involving the Titans averaged a combined 58 points, and their defense did not improve this offseason while their offense did, so I expect more of the same.
Kyler Murray rushed for over 800 yards last season, and his legs account for almost 45% of his offensive production. The Titans' passing defense ranked 27th last season and allowed over 7 yards per attempt. The Cards' secondary is dealing with injuries and inexperience, therefore I expect Tannehill and the Titans' passing offense will have success as well.
Pick: Over 52, Murray over 1.5 TD passes, Murray over 306.5 rush/pass yards
Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 44.5) at Washington Football Team
Fortenbaugh: When it comes to the defensive side of the football, Ron Rivera's teams break from the gate in incendiary fashion. In his 10 previous seasons as an NFL head coach running Carolina and Washington, Rivera's defenses have surrendered an average of just 15.8 points per game in Week 1. The 2021 campaign should be no different thanks to a unit anchored by pass-rusher Chase Young that finished last season ranked second in total defense and fourth in scoring defense.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are making the transition at head coach from Anthony Lynn to Brandon Staley, a defensive mind who oversaw a Rams squad last season that finished the year ranked first in both total and scoring defense. Factoring in the cross-country travel and early start time for Los Angeles, I'm a bit surprised Washington isn't laying 2.5 points in this one.
Pick: Washington +1, under 44.5
Bearman: This line opened as a pick 'em back in the spring and immediately caught my eye. I thought then and still think now that WFT is the better football team here, and the line has moved in our favor, now getting a point at home. People are sleeping on this Washington team that won the NFC East and was a 2-point conversion away from tying up the eventual Super Bowl champion Bucs late in the wild-card game. Washington added veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick to stabilize the QB position, and with weapons like Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas, Fitz-magic should fit in nicely.
Rivera, one of the more underrated coaches in the league, returns the second-ranked total defense from last season that should keep the Chargers' rookie head coach awake at night. Staley, the former Rams DC, walks into a good situation in LA with reigning ROY Justin Herbert behind center of a team coming off a seven-win campaign that could've won 10 games if former head coach Anthony Lynn had any time-management awareness on the field. Both Chargers RBs Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have missed recent practice, and it might take the offense some time with a rookie head coach. Washington should win this one at home in its bid to become the first team since the 2001-04 Eagles to repeat in the NFC East.
Pick: Washington money line (-105)
Marks: Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't taking the NFL by storm, but he is sporting a great completion percentage at 70% - and that is all he needs to get the ball in the hands of the plethora of talent that surrounds him. Antonio Gibson scored on over 32% of the WFT offensive possessions and should be a huge part of Washington's gameplan. Herbert will battle this WFT defense that ranked 9th in pressure rate and 6th in sack rate last season.
Pick: WFT ML, Gibson TD (+110), Gibson over 84.5 rush/rec yards, Herbert under 259.5 pass yards
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48)
Schatz: Last year, the Eagles ranked dead last in DVOA when covering opponents' No. 1 receivers. Darius Slay allowed 9.6 yards per pass target, which ranked 72nd in the NFL among qualifying cornerbacks. Meanwhile in Atlanta, Calvin Ridley is undeniably the No. 1 receiver with the trade of Julio Jones to Tennessee. Football Outsiders' stat projections give Ridley the most receiving yardage of any wideout in the league this week.
Pick: Ridley over 85.5 receiving yards (-125)
Marks: Eagles insider Dave Spadaro was on my radio show last week and could not stop singing the praises of DeVonta Smith. The rookie receiver is special and will be the centerpiece of the Eagles' offense. This is a great first game for the rookie against a Falcons secondary that was one of the worst last season, especially in allowing explosive receiving plays (four per game) to opposing wideouts.
Pick: Smith over 3.5 receptions (+100), Smith over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Schatz: The story of this game is the two quarterbacks. Last year, Russell Wilson finished 13th in passing DVOA among qualifying quarterbacks -- and that was his lowest ranking in three years. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz collapsed and ranked dead last -- 34th out of 34 qualifiers. And while Jonathan Taylor might be the hot fantasy star, Seattle's running game was more efficient than the Colts' running game last season. The Colts have a better defensive projection, but the two teams are closer than you might expect because of strength in the Seattle front seven.
I also expect home-field advantage to remain lower than its historical level in 2021. Many people expect home-field advantage to snap back to three points with fans back in the stands, but remember that the disappearance of home-field advantage in NFL results dates back two years, not just one. Whatever was going on in 2019 could definitely still be going on in 2021, although I expect there will be some kind of small home-field advantage this year -- just smaller than the historical three points.
Pick: Seattle -2.5
Walder: This is the exact same rationale for taking the sack over against Darnold. A quarterback largely controls his sack rate and Wentz takes a lot of sacks. In fact, he led the league in sack rate last season at a whopping 9.9%! And while skeptics will point out he has the Indianapolis offensive line in front of him now, note that Wentz had the fifth-highest amount of time to pass last season in Philadelphia. He evidently had time to throw there, too.
Pick: Seahawks sacks over 2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Bearman: The Vikings were one of the most disappointing teams last season, dropping from 10-6 and the second round of the playoffs to a 7-9 campaign in which the defense regressed to bottom-10 in every statistical category. They will get pieces back this year from injuries, such as Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr, and added Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson, but there is a lot of work to be done to get back to a Mike Zimmer-caliber defense.
The offense was a top-10 unit, but as long as Kirk Cousins is making mistakes, the 2021 season won't be much better. Tight end Irv Smith was supposed to fill Kyle Rudolph's shoes, but he is out for the season. The Bengals, with six combined wins in Zac Taylor's first two seasons, have nowhere to go but up. Joe Burrow, the top pick from 2020, is back from injury and has former college teammate Ja'Marr Chase to throw to. The Bengals started last year 1-2-1 overall and 3-1 ATS with Burrow behind center before his injury. Cincy is still a few years away from contention, but the Bengals are getting three points at home vs. a Vikings team that I do not have high hopes for and one that failed to cover its last five games as a favorite last year. Give me the home 'dog.
Pick: Bengals +3
Marks: Kirk Cousins is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. He may not deliver wins, but he does deliver statistically (25 TD passes or more in his last 6 seasons). The Vikings offense has a favorable matchup against a Bengals secondary that lost CB William Jackson to the WFT and Trae Waynes is dealing with a hamstring injury
Pick: Vikings -3, over 24.5 team points, Cousins over 1.5 pass TDs, over 275.5 pass yards
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 44.5) at Houston Texans
Bearman: I've been chewing on this one for a few weeks now, watching all the news in Houston. On one hand, the Texans enter the season with arguably the worst roster, a new head coach and the constant noise of the Deshaun Watson situation, both legally and with his unhappiness of still being on the roster. None of that screams "take me Week 1." However, laying three points on the road with a team coming off a 1-15 season that has a rookie head coach (Urban Meyer), rookie QB (Trevor Lawrence) and a roster that isn't much better than Houston's doesn't excite me either. In fact, I like that less. As previous examples (Steve Spurrier, Pete Carroll, Lou Holtz, Nick Saban, to name a few) have shown, the move from college to the NFL is a huge learning curve, even for college's best.
Meyer has already dealt with offseason inexperience issues and also lost potential offensive weapon Travis Etienne Jr. I already went on record picking under 6.5 wins with the Jags, as this is not an overnight fix for Urban. The Jags were 28th in the league in offense last year and 32nd in defense. They did add a generational-type QB in Lawrence, WR Marvin Jones and safety Rayshawn Jenkins, but they should have done better with the most salary cap space of any team this past offseason. I am just not ready to lay three points in this first game. The Texans are letting the Watson situation play itself out and will start veteran Tyrod Taylor, who has covered in each of his past five starts. Week 1 road underdogs in divisional games are 26-9-3 (71.%) since 2013 and have hit 66% going back to 2009. The Texans might not win many games this year and this won't be a very popular play this week, but they don't have to win ... just don't lose by more than 3.
Pick: Texans +3
Schatz: The problem in Houston isn't just the quarterback situation with Watson likely to be a healthy scratch all season. The defense isn't very good either. The Texans ranked 25th in passing DVOA last season and are 29th in our 2021 defensive projections. Cornerback Bradley Roby, expected to be a starter, was just offloaded to the Saints. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has a strong set of weapons highlighted by the receiving trio of DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault. It's not hard to imagine that Lawrence will start his NFL career with at least a pair of touchdown passes.
Pick: Lawrence over 1.5 passing TDs (-120)
Walder: This is a gut play -- no model here -- but I feel like this is going to be a historically terrible Houston defense, and it's not going to be long before lines against the Texans are even higher. We're talking about a team that was the second-least efficient defense in the league last year -- and then lost its best defensive player. Plus, it is expected to take a huge step backward offensively, which matters here, too, because a bad offense will often leave its defense a short field.
Pick: Jaguars team total over 23.5 (-125)
Marks: Both the Jags and the Texans defense allowed opposing offenses to score in over 33% of their offensive possessions, as well as a plethora of explosive rushing yards last season. I don't see that changing anytime soon, considering they are two of the worst teams in the NFL this season. The Jags defense allowed over 110 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry last season.
Pick: over 45.5, Phillip Lindsay over 39.5 rush yards
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 48.5)
Schatz: Defense is more difficult to project than offense, but all indications suggest that both of these teams will have strong defenses in 2021. Pittsburgh has been No. 3 and No. 1 in defensive DVOA over the past two years, respectively, and has the top defensive projection from Football Outsiders this season. Pittsburgh was above average in every down-and-distance combo last year except third-and-long (23rd), and that's the kind of thing that will tend to regress positively from year to year. Buffalo's defense declined to 12th in DVOA last season after ranking in the top 10 for both 2018 and 2019, which suggests positive regression in 2021 -- getting better to get closer to the team's performance in recent years.
Buffalo already improved over the course of last year, from 16th in the first half of the season to seventh in the second half. The Bills also added defensive talent this offseason, with Star Lotulelei returning from COVID opt-out and the drafting of edge rushers Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham. Add in the fact that Buffalo's offense is likely to regress downward (for the same reason its defense will regress upward) and that Pittsburgh's questionable offense is breaking in a number of new offensive linemen, and a lot of arrows point to the under in this contest.
Pick: Under 48.5
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 45) at Detroit Lions
Kezirian: If Trey Lance were starting, I would not be as aggressive to lay points on the road, even against a team like Detroit. However, with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, I fully expect the Niners to avoid any sloppy mistakes and handle their business like professionals. Even in a league known for parity, this should be a convincing San Francisco win. Kyle Shanahan finally has a healthy squad, and the Niners will smother a putrid Lions offense and score enough points to cover.
Pick: 49ers -7.5; 49ers -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Buccaneers -2