And then there were four.
We've reached conference championship weekend, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers battling it out for the NFC crown and the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs competing for the AFC title.
As noted the past two weeks, smaller slates often mean a larger assortment of player props for each game. So you can do your best to take advantage, included here is a full box-score projection for all four teams in action. Click here to access the PDF, which includes the offense, defense, special teams and point total projections you'd normally see in our fantasy game.
Speaking of fantasy, if you enjoy the WR vs. CB matchup sheet we deliver each week of the regular season, you can access that PDF for the two championship games here.
Finally, down below are a trio of intriguing player props (all via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill) that looked attractive to me. Of course, you're certainly welcome to ignore those and pick your own poison by comparing the projections in the PDF to the props you come across.
Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 pass TDs (+150)
I'm surprised the juice is so friendly here, as Rodgers has thrown at least three touchdowns in 12 of 17 games this season. That includes six of his past eight. The Buccaneers' defense, meanwhile, has allowed three-plus passing touchdowns in five games this season, though four of those were during the second half of the regular season. Rodgers was held without a touchdown in what was his worst game of the season against these Buccaneers back in Week 6, but the likely MVP's season-long resume suggests he'll be much better on Sunday. Rodgers' projection of 2.4 touchdowns suggests we should be liking the over here at +150.
Aaron Jones under 62.5 rushing yards (-115) and under 15.5 carries (-125)
Jones can make a yardage-related under look silly in one play, but both his rushing yardage and carry props seem too high considering his recent usage and opponent. Jones has been below 16 carries in 10 of his 15 games this season, which includes five of his past six. He's actually been over 62 rushing yards in 10 games, but one of the exceptions was a 10-carry, 15-yard effort against these Buccaneers back in Week 6. Jones has been deferring significant work to his teammates and that includes last week's divisional round win over the Rams. Jones carried the ball 14 times, compared to 12 for Jamaal Williams and six for emerging rookie AJ Dillon.
The biggest variable, however, is a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 286 carries, 960 rushing yards and a 3.4 yards per carry to running backs during the regular season. All three were lowest in the NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed fewer than 63 rushing yards to opposing backs in 12 of 18 games. That includes each of their first five games of the season, which are the only games Vita Vea played this season. That's notable considering the star defensive tackle is expected back from injured reserve this week. Incredibly, only three running backs have managed 16 or more carries and only three backs reached 63 rushing yards against Tampa Bay in 18 games this season. Jones' projection checks in at 11.6 carries for 53 yards, so the unders are obviously attractive.
Rob Gronkowski under 2.5 receptions (+110)
Week 15. That's the last time Gronkowski had more than two catches in a game. In two playoff games, he's managed only one catch for 14 yards on six targets. Gronkowski's targets have dropped off since the arrival of Antonio Brown (5.1 to 4.2 per game) and, believe it or not, he's tied with Cameron Brate in targets since the team's Week 13 bye (20 each). Gronkowski has a total of nine receptions in six games during the span. Green Bay allowed the seventh-fewest tight end receptions (4.1 per game) during the regular season. Gronkowski's projection checks in at 2.1, so the under is attractive with the +100 juice.