It's the NFL postseason and ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-1-1 last week, 22-34-3 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-0, 37-58-1), Anita Marks (9-15, 121-130-2), Preston Johnson (0-0, 16-20), Mike Clay (4-2-1, 25-18-1), Tyler Fulghum (3-6, 67-93-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (1-1, 35-25), Seth Walder (3-0, 53-31) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-2, 44-51-2) of Football Outsiders are here to tell us what bets they like from this weekend's conference championships.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Sunday's games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3, 51)
Bearman: Yes, one side has Tom Brady and won the first matchup this season in blowout fashion. But I believe the other side has been better overall and will win this rematch. Aaron Rogers and the Packers have won nine of their past 10, only losing at Indy in OT in a game in which they led by two TDs at halftime. Outside of the Bills team on the other side of the bracket, no team has played better since early November, with Green Bay averaging 32.2 points per game on offense. The underrated defense has held five of its last six opponents under 20 points.
You can't discount what the Buccaneers did in the first meeting, but let's not forget the Packers were up 10-0 and had outgained the Bucs 134-39 through the first 17 minutes before Rodgers threw a pick-6, followed by another interception returned to the 2-yard line three plays later. In the span of four plays, the game went from a possible Packers rout in Tampa to a runaway the other way. Such is momentum in the NFL. The Bucs managed only 324 yards, but did completely shut down the Packers' offense after being down 10-0, holding Green Bay to 57 yards and three first downs the rest of the game. I do not expect the Packers' offense to struggle like that again, and this game will be on the frozen tundra at Lambeau. We all know the GOAT is 9-4 in conference championship games and has been exceptional as an underdog in his career, but Brady is only 6-7 against the number in those previous 13 conference finals. Rodgers is 12-6-1 ATS in the playoffs and 4-2-1 at home.
Pick: Packers -3
Fortenbaugh: Green Bay ranks dead last in the NFL in pace, and Tampa Bay should have minimal issues establishing a rushing attack against a Packers defense that ranked T-21st in opponent yards per carry this season. That's the type of recipe that often leads to an under, especially with a total north of 50 points. This is going to be a chess match featuring two elite signal-callers who excel at protecting the football.
Pick: Under 51
Kezirian: I have more faith in Rodgers than I do any other player this weekend. At 37 years old, Rodgers has a mind that is as strong as his rocket arm. The likely MVP has been a step ahead of almost all defenses this season, throwing 48 TD passes and just five interceptions. Brady is obviously no slouch. The six-time champion will position the Bucs properly and give them an opportunity to win. However, I am unsure I trust Brady's weapons in the elements. Plus, Tampa Bay is playing its third straight road playoff and has traveled for five of its past six games. The entire situation sets up quite favorably for the Pack.
Part of my trust in Green Bay is its ability to control tempo all season. The Packers led the NFL in time of possession, punted the fourth-fewest times, and ranked in the top third in third-down conversion. Rodgers has demonstrated a complete control of games and acute ability to read defenses at the line of scrimmage. Consequently, I think that will translate to limited Bucs possessions and opportunities for Brady. I am taking under 38.5 pass attempts, especially when you factor in Green Bay's weakness against the run. I am confident the Bucs will commit to the rushing attack. GB opponents finished with 39+ pass attempts only four times this year.
Pick: Packers -3, Brady under 38.5 pass attempts, Bucs under 24.5 points
Schatz: Surprisingly, Aaron Rodgers hasn't thrown for 300 yards in a game since back in Week 11 against Indianapolis. There are reasons to believe that Tampa Bay might slow him down, if not stop him. Tampa Bay finished the season fifth in pass defense DVOA. The Bucs reduce passing yards by roughly 4% per target, and the cold weather lowers passing yards by another 4% per target. Football Outsiders estimates a roughly 65% chance of Rodgers hitting this prop.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers under 284.5 passing yards (-115)
Walder: Teammates Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul have equal odds at DraftKings to record a sack Sunday: +195 over 0.5 and -250 under 0.5. While Pierre-Paul actually exceeded Barrett's sack total this season -- 9.5 to 8.0 -- their seasons were hardly similar if we look at their entire body of pass-rushing work instead of just a handful of sack plays. Barrett's pass rush win rate -- the rate he beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds of the snap -- was 21% while Pierre-Paul's was almost half that at 11%. So I'm going to bet that the former is a little underrated and the latter is a little overrated by the sack market, though both will have a hard time sacking Rodgers, who had the sixth-lowest sack rate (3.5%) in the league this season. Pass rush win rate is an ESPN stat using NFL Next Gen Stats.
Pick: Barrett over 0.5 sacks (+195 at DraftKings), Pierre-Paul under 0.5 sacks (-250 at DK)
Fulghum: Now that my preseason pick (Ravens) and my favorite team to root for (Rams) have been eliminated, I'm jumping on the bandwagon of my all-time GOAT at QB... Rodgers. No one is playing the position as well as he is right now. He's likely the league MVP, and he just carved up the No. 1 defense in the NFL -- albeit a defense that was sabotaged by the health of Aaron Donald. Rodgers will command this game and send the Packers to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Packers -3, under 51, Rodgers over 36.5 pass attempts (-115), Aaron Jones under 62.5 rushing yards (-115), Brady under 287.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: At some point the football gods will stop giving the Bucs a free pass to advance. From a close call against Washington to four turnovers from the Saints and all the way back to Week 6 when these two teams first met and Rodgers threw two interceptions (one a pick-6 and the other returned to the 2-yard line), along with zero Bucs penalties versus the Packers' 76 yards in penalties, things have gone their way. It also was Davante Adams' first game back from injury, and Allen Lazard did not play.
This is the week a Bucs opponent doesn't shoot itself in the foot. I believe the weather will be a factor benefiting Green Bay, considering the Bucs have not played in frigid temperatures all season. Plus, winning three straight road playoff games is a tall task. Even though Tampa has had success running the ball, its passing game is just as important, and the Packers' defense is up for the task, allowing an average of only 16 points per game to their last four opponents.
Pick: Packers alternate line -2.5 (-139 at DK), Packers -2.5 1H (-110), Packers -0.5 first quarter (+115), Adams TD & Packers win (+138), Lazard over 46.5 receiving yards (-115), Rodgers over 10.5 rushing yards (-110), Aaron Jones over 3.5 receptions (-115), Za'Darius Smith over 0.5 sacks (+103 at DK), Brady under 287.5 passing yards (-115), Mike Evans over 4.5 receptions (-125), Evans anytime TD (+138), Leonard Fournette over 67.5 rush/receiving yards (-110), Ronald Jones II over 35.5 rushing yards (-120), Miller over 1.5 receptions (-115)
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 54)
Schatz: Conventional wisdom holds that the Chiefs have been deliberately playing close games and will "flip a switch" in the playoffs. Maybe that's true; Kansas City played its best offensive half of the year in the first half against Cleveland last week. But there's no denying that Buffalo has been the better team over the past two months. Buffalo is No. 1 in weighted DVOA, which gives more strength to recent games. Kansas City is only fifth, even if we remove the Week 17 games where the Chiefs sat their starters. What if we look at only offense? Then Kansas City is better, but not by much; the Chiefs rank third in weighted offense (behind Green Bay and Tampa Bay) and the Bills are fourth. But the Bills are much stronger on defense -- eighth in weighted DVOA, while the Chiefs are 22nd (18th without Week 17). On defense in particular, this Bills team has been playing much better than it was back when the Chiefs beat them in Week 6. And we know that they know not to blitz Patrick Mahomes II, which gets defenses killed. The Bills went the entire Week 6 game without doing it.
Pick: Bills +3
Fortenbaugh: I want to back the Bills, but I can't get over the fact that Buffalo has been outgained by a grand total of 195 yards in its two playoff wins. Throw in the missed field goals, failed fourth-down attempts and unsuccessful 2-point conversion attempts suffered on behalf of the opposition and you have a Bills squad that has been the beneficiary of some extraordinary luck this January. Kansas City isn't a perfect team, but Buffalo's one-dimensional offense and struggles defending the run are weaknesses that will be exploited at Arrowhead on Sunday.
Pick: Chiefs -3
Fulghum: The Chiefs have developed an interesting habit of winning games while failing to cover. Despite winning eight of their last nine games, they are 1-8 ATS over that span. Having three points in my pocket on the very small chance that Mahomes can't play is also a nice little bonus. I think the Bills can win this game outright, but even if the Chiefs do win, I imagine it's done with a late drive that has them take the lead and win by a small margin.
Pick: Bills +3
Marks: There is not enough talk about Mahomes' turf toe. It would be a surprise if Mahomes didn't play Sunday, but how electric will he be with a busted toe? Prior to Mahomes getting pulled from the game last week, we saw just how difficult it was for him to throw to his left, let alone scramble. The Bills enter this matchup healthier and, dare I write, with the better gunslinger? When these teams met in Week 6, the Bills did not blitz once; a hindered Mahomes could be the chum in the water for the Bills' front seven. Buffalo also was missing LB Matt Milano, and KC was able to run the ball at will, which I don't see happening again. The Chiefs' defense is ranked 32nd in the red zone, therefore I envision a flipped script, where the Chiefs' offense is going to have to keep pace with the healthier Bills quarterback.
Pick: Bills money line (+140), Bills +2 1H (-110), Bills alternate line +3.5 (-127 at DK), Stefon Diggs TD & Bills win (+375), Diggs over 95.5 receiving yards (-115), Josh Allen over 31.5 rushing yards (-120), Devin Singletary over 63.5 rush/receiving yards (-115)
Walder: My favorite bet of the year is back! 27.5 is tied for the highest line I've seen all year for longest completion, but I don't think Diggs -- as impressive as he is -- can justify it. All year long Buffalo has taken advantage of opponents' concern of Diggs' deep ball ability by connecting with Diggs on hitches, comebacks and other short or intermediate routes. His air yards per target ranks 53rd out of the 105 wide receivers with at least 200 routes run. His depth 3 seconds into the play ranks 80th. While his target rate is elite (29%, 3rd-best among the same group) I don't think the line should be quite this extreme given how Buffalo uses him.
Pick: Diggs longest reception under 27.5 yards (-120)