Typically at this point in the season, we would be hard-pressed to find much value in the NFC and AFC Championship Games. We have a unique situation this time around, however, with Patrick Mahomes' status in Kansas City not entirely certain. I'll share my projections and thoughts on each matchup and what I anticipate from the market moving forward.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3 at -125, 51)
I wasn't too surprised by the move on Tampa Bay in the divisional round on early +4s and +3.5s during the week. The move to +2.5 on Sunday morning caught me off guard, however. That's a significant tell. Sure enough, this week we are looking at a similar point spread midweek at a juiced -3. (The +3.5s have already been taken out, basically across the board.) Personally, I would be very surprised if this was a copycat on Sunday and it moved through the key number and closed +2.5.
From a sheer numbers perspective, I think the juiced -3 is fair. The question for bettors will be whether the matchup favors the Buccaneers enough to warrant a bet. If we looked at their regular-season matchup, then it would point to yes. Tampa Bay won 38-10 and held the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay offense to only 36% play success (the lowest of their season). The Packers gained only 201 total yards on 61 plays. The Bucs sacked Rodgers five times for 53 yards and forced two interceptions. But I'm quick to point out to myself how well the Green Bay offensive line played this past weekend against the Rams. Sure, Aaron Donald didn't play much and he wasn't very productive for the snaps he was on the field. And is it likely the Bucs' defense is a step up in class? Probably. But I still came away impressed by the Packers' front, considering LT David Bakhtiari was lost for the season in their regular-season finale.
Some discussion will be had about playing in the cold and potential snow and the Packers' home-field advantage. They have one, and I think it's correctly accounted for in the market in the year 2021. You aren't sneaking anything past anybody thinking this Green Bay line is short because it's cold there. To be honest, Tom Brady would be pretty high up the list of quarterbacks I'd trust in these weather conditions anyway.
There isn't enough for me to make a bet in this one either way. Good luck to those who take a shot.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3 at +100, 53.5)
Before Mahomes left the divisional round game with his injury, a few sportsbooks were offering a Bills-Chiefs line of Kansas City -4. The total was 56. The current market seems to be shading to Mahomes playing, but not entirely to where the number would be if he were 100%. If he were to miss the game, I'd make Andy Reid and the fighting Chad Hennes +2.5 at home.
This is the conundrum bettors currently face. Is it worth betting Buffalo at +3 on the chance it's Henne leading the way under center? Of course, +3 would be a great number at that point, but how does it compare to waiting if you like the Buffalo side and potentially getting a +3.5 or +4? We know that three is the most key number in the sport, but let me provide some context on just how valuable it may be in this particular game. Since 2015, when the extra point attempt was moved back, 14.3% of games have landed on three. That includes every game, no matter its point spread. Obviously, in games with a double-digit favorite, they aren't landing on three as frequently as games the market expects to land near three, on average. Since 2015, favorites of -2.5, -3 and -3.5 have won by exactly three points 24.5% of the time.
There is so much added equity in potentially getting Buffalo +3.5 and cashing your tickets in the instances the Chiefs win by exactly three -- rather than just pushing your bets were you to bet +3 now. Similarly, if you think Mahomes is good to go, juiced -2.5s or cheap -3s would be worth snagging now. (The majority of reports on Mahomes have been positive.)
It's tough for me to take a stance, regardless. I don't like to deal in uncertainties; we do enough of that betting an extremely high-variance sport anyway. We are talking about the best quarterback who walks the planet.
I'll leave you with this: If I knew Mahomes was playing, I'd be shopping around for -2.5s and cheap money-line options. (I saw a -135 earlier today.) Outside of the edges in numbers, I'd still be somewhat concerned as a Bills fan that their offense generated only one touchdown last week against the Ravens. Are we sure we're confident in Josh Allen going into Arrowhead in the AFC Championship Game without much of a running game (32 yards on 16 carries and Zack Moss out again)? Only three teams since 2001 have reached the conference championship game after being outgained in the two playoff games prior: the 2017 Jaguars, the 2020 Titans and the 2021 Bills. I'm not so sure it's worth the risk backing Buffalo and hoping Mahomes sits out anyway. Another sincere wish of good luck to those who do.