One game stands in the way of Super Bowl LV for the Chiefs, Packers, Bills and Buccaneers. Win in their respective conference championship this weekend, and it's on to the final game of the 2020 NFL season. But how will they get it done? How will offensive and defensive coordinators or playcallers exploit matchups and come away with a win?
Let's take a closer look at both conference championship matchups and pick out game-plan keys -- one on offense, one on defense -- that can create edges and a path to the Super Bowl for each of the four teams. Plus, we identify each team's game-breaker who could cause problems for opponents, and we point to the one pivotal matchup to watch in both the NFC and AFC Championship Games that just might play a huge part in who moves on and who goes home.
Let's begin with Sunday's NFC meeting of Tom Brady's Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers' top-seeded Packers.
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (1) Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, Fox | FPI predicts GB (53.2%) by 1
Keys to victory | Game-breakers | Pivotal matchup
How the Buccaneers can beat the Packers
1. Scheme second-level windows for QB Tom Brady
The Bucs are going to get run-game volume with running back Leonard Fournette out of 11 and 12 personnel groupings on Sunday, including a lot of outside zone. But I'm also looking for Tampa Bay to scheme the middle of the field for Brady with leveled reads and Hi-Lo stretch concepts. This is where the Bucs can manipulate Quarters and Cover 2 to open those second-level windows for Brady to throw in-breakers and over routes against a Packers defense that I expect to be more zone-heavy in this matchup.
When Brady can throw with rhythm and timing, the ball location wins. Keep an eye on tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, too. There will be 12 personnel throws for Brady there, where he has registered a QBR of 80.3 with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions this season. As we've said since Week 1, that's where Brady is at his best in this offense.
From @NFLMatchup - #Bucs-#Falcons tomorrow...
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 19, 2020
TAM will see defined coverages (single-high safety) from the ATL defense.
Here, we looked at the play-action pass game out of 12 personnel - with schemed throws for QB Tom Brady. @gregcosell @NFLFilms pic.twitter.com/icg3tRNP80
2. Get third-down pressure against Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
In the Week 6 win over the Packers, Todd Bowles' defense had a blitz rate of 40.5%, and that number climbed to 56.3% on third downs. In total, Tampa Bay sacked Rodgers five times in that game. It's all about simulated pressure, zone pressure and Cover 0 blitzes (man coverage with no safety help). The Bucs simply have to attack the pocket with multiple pressures that create both free runners and one-on-one pass-rush matchups.
I expect Bowles to get after Rodgers again on Sunday with schemed pressure that allows Tampa to bring heat off the slot and utilize the high-level traits of linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David as second-level rushers. That's the identity of this defensive unit under Bowles.
How the Packers can beat the Buccaneers
1. Lean on DUO and misdirection schemes in the run game
We know Rodgers is going to have opportunities in coach Matt LaFleur's heavily defined pass game. He'll also target one-on-ones to wide receiver Davante Adams on slant fades or the back-shoulder balls outside of the numbers. However, let's not look past this Packers run game, which averaged 132.4 yards rushing per game during the regular season, No. 8 in the NFL.
With Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and possibly rookie AJ Dillon -- if he's healthy for the game -- the Packers have three backs who run with contact balance and vision. But with the ability of the Bucs' linebackers to cut off the ball, I would run more DUO in this matchup. That's where the Packers use two inside double-teams, with the running back in a position to read the linebacker. See it and go.
I also think Green Bay adds numbers on the edge off split-flow zone. With that, the Packers gain "plus-one" by using jet motions to wrap to the second level to create an edge for the backs to press the ball up the field -- all while creating conflict for the eye discipline of White and David.
2. Create interior pass-rush matchups with Za'Darius Smith
As we've discussed before, you have to get bodies at the feet of Brady to muddy the pocket. Green Bay can do that with Smith aligned inside as a standup three-technique defensive tackle in its pass-rush packages. There, you can scheme one-on-ones for Smith -- in a matchup advantage against the interior of the Bucs' offensive line -- with Preston Smith and Rashan Gary as your edge rushers.
This is also where defensive coordinator Mike Pettine can engineer even more pressure with twists and stunts. Watch for the Packers to create two-man games inside with Smith and defensive tackle Kenny Clark, or wrap Gary off a twist. In the games in which Brady has struggled this season, it has the been the interior pressure that eliminated his ability to throw on rhythm from the pocket.
Game-breakers to watch
Devin White, ILB, Buccaneers
We mentioned White's upside in the Bucs' pressure schemes, but he also plays a critical role in this matchup against the Packers' zone-run game. With high-level run-and-hit traits, plus short-area speed that jumps on the tape, White is an eraser at the second level who can cut off the ball on outside zone. If the Packers' offensive line struggles to climb off their combo blocks, look for the Tampa Bay linebacker to clean up in the run game on Sunday.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers
I'm looking at the vertical stretch ability of Valdes-Scantling here on schemed shot-play throws for Rodgers. Think early-down play-action with Valdes-Scantling attacking the top of the Tampa Bay secondary. This season, he averaged 20.9 yards per reception and produced 10 explosive play receptions (receptions of 20 or more yards). I would work to get him matched up versus the Tampa safeties in Quarters. Force those safeties to open and run on schemed verticals from a slot alignment that play to Valdes-Scantling's straight-line speed.
Pivotal matchup: Can Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis keep Packers wide receiver Davante Adams in check?
It's going to start at the line of scrimmage in Cover 1. Can Davis use his length and physical traits to disrupt the release of Adams? That has to happen, given Davis' lack of recovery speed versus Adams' sudden ability to separate. And when the Bucs do play Quarters, you have to account for Adams' ability to set up Davis on double moves. It's going to be a really good matchup to watch here when Rodgers wants to throw the one-on-ones.
(2) Buffalo Bills at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET, CBS | FPI predicts KC (58.3%) by 3
Keys to victory | Game-breakers | Pivotal matchup
How the Bills can beat the Chiefs
1. Create middle-of-the-field windows for QB Josh Allen against 2-deep shells
The Chiefs led the NFL in Cover 0 blitz snaps this year (8.7%), so we know Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will heat up Allen on Sunday night. But the Chiefs are also a heavy 2-deep team. Including the playoffs, Kansas City ranked No. 6 in Cover 2 snaps at 19.6% and No. 3 in two-man snaps at 12.9%. And that is where Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll can scheme middle-of-the-field windows for Allen to throw in-breakers.
Look for Bills to lift the deep-half safeties with inside verticals to create coverage voids for Allen to drive the ball on dig routes or over routes to Stefon Diggs and John Brown, with Cole Beasley as the underneath outlet to move the chains. And given the amount of late movement and disguise we see from the Chiefs' defense, don't be surprised if Daboll uses more empty sets. That gives Allen more pre-snap indicators to read the coverage, while also expanding the throwing windows versus Cover 2.
2. Send sim pressure
In the Week 6 head-to-head matchup versus the Chiefs, the Bills played zone coverage on 78.3% of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks, with a blitz rate of just 3.0% -- a big drop from their regular-season blitz rate of 33.2% (No. 9). While I expect the Bills to stay zone-heavy in their defined coverage schemes on Sunday night, can defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier dial up a little more heat?
Instead of sending five- and six-man rushes, I would focus on simulated-pressure schemes. For example, walk linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano up in the A-gaps, a staple look in this scheme, and send slot man Taron Johnson with a defensive end dropping to the weak hook. That will make Mahomes work post-snap here, while creating confusion versus an offensive line that can be schemed against with pressure stunts off the edge or through the A-gaps.
How the Chiefs can beat the Bills
1. Scheme against Buffalo's red zone Cover 2
The Chiefs rushed for 245 yards on 46 carries in the Week 6 win over the Bills. And we could see a heavy run-game approach from coach Andy Reid again if Buffalo gives Kansas City a light run box to attack. Reid will also have ways to create passing windows for Mahomes against split-safety alignments. But when the Chiefs move the ball inside the 20-yard line, look for Reid to scheme up tight end Travis Kelce on Cover 2 beaters.
Including the playoffs, the Bills played Cover 2 in the red zone on 22.8% of coverage snaps, tops in the league. And in that Week 6 game, Reid isolated Kelce versus zone coverage on two Mahomes touchdown throws in the red zone. What are we looking for here? Kelce to the backside of 3x1 sets in reduced split and middle-of-the-field throws that create a matchup with Edmunds in space.
2. Get late movement and disguise with Tyrann Mathieu as the 'robber' safety
I'm looking at Mathieu here when the Chiefs have dime personnel on the field. That's where we will see the Chiefs show pressure and spin late to play Cover 2 "robber," with Mathieu as the middle-hole defender. One, this allows the Chiefs to make Allen work post-snap with late movement. Two, it allows Kansas City to play zone coverage with Mathieu lying in the weeds as a middle-of-the-field presence.
During the regular season, Allen and Daboll lit up man coverage using scheme and personnel, with the quarterback throwing 27 touchdown passes and only four interceptions. But against zone, Allen's numbers dropped to 10 TDs and six interceptions. I would be a little bit more zone-heavy in this one, while utilizing Mathieu to steal an in-breaker -- just like he did last week on a second-reaction throw from Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield.
The way Tyrann Mathieu knows exactly where the ball is going 😳 @Mathieu_Era @Chiefs
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) January 17, 2021
📺 #CLEvsKC on CBS pic.twitter.com/7aaMsMYftJ
Game-breakers to watch
John Brown, WR, Bills
The Bills will have opportunities to get Brown loose in this game versus both pressure and two-man coverage. Look for him to be targeted on quick screens against zero-man alignments out of 3x1 sets, with Daboll also scheming him open on mesh concepts to beat man-under coverages. Shallow drive routes would allow Allen to hit Brown in second-level windows. And like Diggs, Brown is a vertical option when Allen reads single-high coverage.
Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs
Jones has the disruptive traits to win one-on-ones against the interior of the Bills' offensive front in pass-rush situations. With power, heavy hands and length, Jones can push the middle of the pocket and get his hands in the passing lanes against Allen.
Pivotal matchup: How will the Chiefs' cornerbacks slow down Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs?
When the Chiefs play two-man, single-high Cover 1 or bring Cover 0 pressure, the question remains: Who is the matchup for Diggs? If it is cornerback Bashaud Breeland -- who is questionable for this weekend's game -- then he has to win with his physical play style at the release and through the route stem. Diggs has an edge here given his fluid movement skills and route-running traits. If Breeland isn't the matchup, look for the Chiefs to use Charvarius Ward in that spot.