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Best bets for the 2021 NHL season

Auston Matthews scored a career-best 47 goals last season. Rick Madonik/Toronto Star/Getty Images

The 2021 NHL season is set to start on Wednesday, with the Tampa Bay Lightning beginning their Stanley Cup defense.

Senior NHL writer Greg Wyshynski, NHL writer Emily Kaplan and ESPN's Arda Ocal are here with their best futures bets before the pucks drop.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill, unless otherwise indicated.


Stanley Cup futures

Washington Capitals (18-1)

Kaplan: It's understandable why you might sleep on the Caps. They've looked stale after winning the Stanley Cup in 2018, lacking consistency and sometimes urgency. The Todd Reirden experiment did not work out. So the Caps went out and got a hard-ass coach in Peter Laviolette who should reignite this veteran group. GM Brian MacLellan also added to his blue line, and goaltending might get an upgrade with coveted prospect Ilya Samsonov finally taking the reins. The biggest reason to believe in the Caps: As Alex Ovechkin enters his age-35 season, it has never been more apparent that the Russian machine never breaks.

Carolina Hurricanes (20-1)

Ocal: I want to be very clear and say that my pick to win the Stanley Cup is the Toronto Maple Leafs (if you stop reading after I said that, I totally understand, especially if the Leafs somehow face the Bruins in the semifinals or something). But I wouldn't bet them at 12-1. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Colorado and Vegas are in the final, but at 8-1 and 8-1, respectively, that's not enough value for me. Carolina at 20-1 is just enough in that sweet spot that I would throw a few bucks at it and probably forget about it. Carolina just feels like one of those teams that just might make a push this year. The nucleus of the team largely stayed the same. Jesper Fast came in from the Rangers, which can add some depth to the bottom six. The sky's the limit for Andrei Svechnikov, and the defensive pairing of Jaccob Slavin and Dougie Hamilton is routinely lights out. I like a lot about this team. If goaltending doesn't become an issue as the season plays out, that 20-1 bet gets even tastier.


Total points

Hurricanes over 68.5 points (-110)

Wyshynski The Central Division should theoretically be the weakest in this temporary realignment. Chicago and Detroit are bottom-four teams in the league. Florida and Nashville could be middling. All of this sets up well for the Hurricanes, a deep team with the kind of goaltending tandem in Petr Mrazek and James Reimer that teams will need in this 56-game sprint. (And if they falter ... hey, Carolina showed it can win with a Zamboni driver in goal last season.) Asking for over 68.5 points is asking for the Hurricanes to go from last season's .596 points percentage to a .612 percent clip this season. That's entirely attainable, especially if their best offensive defenseman (Hamilton) can stay healthier than last season when he missed 21 games.


Props

San Jose Sharks to make the playoffs (+210)

Wyshynski: The West Division is the easiest one to handicap, given that the top four teams in each division make the playoff cut. The Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche are cemented into playoff spots. The St. Louis Blues are likely the third-best team, although injuries and their goaltending situation make that a little less certain. That leaves one entirely open spot. Los Angeles and Anaheim aren't good. Arizona might take a step back. That leaves the Minnesota Wild and the Sharks. The Wild are a good pick (+120) given their defensive credentials and the arrival of rookie Kirill Kaprizov to spark the offense. But I like the Sharks as a value play. They'll need better goaltending from Martin Jones and new arrival Devan Dubnyk and better defense in front of them. But their disastrous 2019-20 season was mostly due to injuries to key players. Full runs from Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl and the Sharks could be a playoff team again.


Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP)

Elias Pettersson (20-1)

Kaplan: Pettersson could follow the likes Taylor Hall (winner in 2018), Nathan MacKinnon (finalist in 2018, 2020) and Artemi Panarin (finalist in 2018) as the next star player who drags his underachieving team to the playoffs. Using Evolving Hockey's Games Above Replacement metric, Pettersson ranked second only to Panarin last season, and it's hard to imagine him letting up, considering it's a contract year. The Canucks are currently a bubble playoff team in the reconfigured Canadian Division. If they make the playoffs, Pettersson's heroics will be the biggest reason why.

Auston Matthews (14-1); top goal-scorer (4-1)

Wyshynski: The Maple Leafs are favored to win the North Division, and Matthews is positioned to be their most productive player. He had his best goal-scoring season in the NHL (0.67 goals per game) in 2019-20. In this truncated campaign, he's the betting favorite to win the Rocket Richard Trophy as goal-scoring leader. Awards voters are always looking for fresh blood in the MVP category. If Matthews wins the goals race by a significant margin, coupled with a modicum of defensive improvement -- he's expected to get penalty killing time this season -- it could be the recipe to earn him the Hart Trophy for the first time in his young career.


Norris Trophy (top defenseman)

Charlie McAvoy (20-1)

Ocal: Why would I pick a defenseman who was 10th in voting last year to win the Norris Trophy? To be clear, I'm saying this is a value bet, based on what's happening in Boston. With Zdeno Chara heading to Washington and Torey Krug off to the Blues, the Long Beach, N.Y. native will have the spotlight on the B's blue line. It was a tale of two Charlies last season; he had a rough first half but finished strong, setting career highs in plus/minus (+24), assists (27) and points (32). For a team that's already projected to be among the best in the league this year, McAvoy could be the first line of defense and have a strong opportunity to shine, exceed and contend for top defensive honors in the league. At 20-1, that's decent value.