The 6-4 Baltimore Ravens and 10-0 Pittsburgh Steelers will finally play on Wednesday afternoon in the last game of Week 12 in the NFL.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Tyler Fulghum and Anita Marks, Seth Walder of ESPN analytics and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 40.5)
Fortenbaugh: The Steelers are going to punish the Ravens for how badly Baltimore has messed up the schedule. The Ravens' offensive line was already banged up prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, and now will have to find a way to protect turnover-prone backup quarterback Robert Griffin III, who will be missing tight end Mark Andrews, wide receiver Willie Snead and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram -- which is just the tip of the iceberg, before looking at a Ravens defense without Matthew Judon and Calais Campbell. Pittsburgh rolls here.
Pick: Steelers -10
Schatz: The Steelers lead the NFL with 15 interceptions, picking off at least one pass in eight of 10 games this season. Robert Griffin III had two interceptions in limited playing time last year, including one when he started against the Steelers in Week 17. Football Outsiders estimates a better than 80% chance that Griffin throws at least one pick this week.
Pick: Griffin over 0.5 interceptions (-170)
Fulghum: Ben Roethlisberger has thrown the ball 134 times in the past three weeks -- 44.7 passes per game. The Ravens' defense is normally stout, but this situation is unique. The defense will likely be on the field a lot, and under pressure due to a compromised offense. I also think the Steelers are motivated to embarrass their division rivals when they are weak and wounded. Big Ben and the Steelers will likely run up the score against the team they hate the most.
Diontae Johnson has been Roethlisberger's favorite receiver, as evidenced by his healthy 22.6% target share. But rookie Chase Claypool is the preferred big-play and red-zone option. Both should have ample opportunities in this game.
Picks: Johnson over 56.5 receiving yards, Claypool over 48.5 receiving yards, Roethlisberger over 1.5 passing TDs (-160), over 266.5 passing yards
Walder: There's only one good thing about me losing the Marquise Brown receiving yards prop week after week: The line keeps dropping. It has fallen so far now that the line is significantly below Brown's expected completed air yards per game, based on NFL Next Gen Stats' completion probability model. And remember, that's banking on zero yards after catch!
Brown, who had zero catches last week, is so off that his completed air yards over expectation has cracked negative triple digits. Yikes! The good news is, for his career he's still just a -1% catch percentage over expectation receiver. That's all I'm asking for here, a middling catch rate based on the throws he receives, and this will finally hit.
Pick: Brown over 36.5 receiving yards
Marks: This game is going to be ugly, considering the Ravens will be missing several play-makers on both sides of the ball. Therefore, let's make it fun to watch, with my "Cheesecake Factory" list of prop bets. RG III will be running for his life behind a makeshift offensive line, and Dez Bryant will be targeted due to the lack of receiver options. The Steelers will be without starting running back James Conner, but Benny Snell will fill the void just fine. Game script: Steelers go up big early, then rely on the run to eat the clock and end the game as soon as possible.
Picks: Steelers -10, Steelers -6 first half, Steelers team total over 25.5, Griffin over 30.5 rushing yards, Bryant over 2.5 receptions, Snell over 57.5 rushing yards