Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-2 last week, 10-14 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (0-5, 19-31), Anita Marks (2-4, 31-47-1), Preston Johnson (1-1, 11-15), Mike Clay (1-1, 11-8) and Tyler Fulghum (4-3, 24-30-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (1-1, 17-9), Seth Walder (4-2, 29-13) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-3, 19-28-1) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh is currently off the board.
8:20 p.m. ET game
Baltimore Ravens (-7, 43.5) at New England Patriots
Fortenbaugh: The Patriots' defense just allowed Joe Flacco and the putrid Jets to hang 27 points and 322 yards on them, converting 6 of 10 third downs. How is this same bunch going to limit Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? I know Baltimore has struggled at times, but New England has dropped four of its past five outings while averaging just 15.8 points per game -- and that includes 30 points against the Jets on Monday night! And I doubt Cam Newton and a Patriots offense currently ranked 28th in passing (202.3 yards per game) will be able to consistently sustain drives against the league's top-ranked scoring defense (17.8 points per game).
Pick: Ravens -7
Bearman: Patriots fans could not like what they saw against the Jets, despite the win. Enter the Ravens, who ran up and down the field against them last season. Jackson had three touchdowns, including two on the ground as part of the Ravens' 210 rushing yards. Baltimore is even better on the ground this year, bringing the league's top rushing attack (170.1 rushing yards per game) to face a Patriots defense getting gashed for 131 rushing yards per game, 25th in the league. Oh, and Joe Flacco passed for 262 yards and three TDs on Monday night. I don't see the Patriots stopping Jackson and the Ravens, or scoring enough to keep up behind Newton.
Pick: Ravens -7
Kezirian: I want to avoid repeating what Dave and Joe outlined. I essentially agree with everything they wrote. To me, this is about one team that should be able to dominate on both sides of the ball. A few weeks ago, San Francisco went into Foxborough, Massachusetts, and rushed for 197 yards. The Niners kept the New England defense off balance with misdirection and physicality. The Ravens should be able to do the same. However, this is Bill Belichick, who is widely considered the greatest coach in NFL history. Giving him seven points at home is scary, although I want no part of the Pats. As bad as New England has looked, the Pats, with a backup QB, still nearly upset the Chiefs in Kansas City. But I am confident in Baltimore's ability to win the game.
Pick: Ravens -1 in teaser with Saints -4
Marks: The Pats come in on a short work week against one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Jackson should come in with confidence after an impressive second half last week in which the Ravens put up 17 points against a good Colts defense. Newton has zero TD passes and five interceptions over the past four games, and the Pats have a league-high turnover rate of 23%. The stars align for the Ravens to dominate on Sunday night.
Pick: Ravens -1 in teaser with Chargers +8.5
Walder: After losing this prop at a higher line last week, I'm coming back to try again. I know the Ravens passing game is not clicking on all cylinders, but there's two reasons to make this bet. First, the opportunity Marquise Brown is getting (44.2 expected completed air yards per game) more than justifies taking the over here. The problem is he and Lamar Jackson have converted those air yards at a below average rate. But there's a fix for that coming: the Patriots defense. Believe it or not, no team is allowing a higher completion percentage over expectation (+5.5%) than any other team in the league.
Pick: Brown over 46.5 receiving yards
1 p.m. ET games
Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5) at New York Giants
Schatz: The 2-7 Giants (25th) are actually higher than the 3-4-1 Eagles (28th) in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings.
We rate the Eagles higher in our DAVE ratings, which incorporate prior information, but not by enough to make up a line of three points. And these teams just played three weeks ago, with the Eagles needing a fourth-quarter comeback to win by a single point. The Giants' run defense (11th) is better than their pass defense (28th), so this game will be in Carson Wentz's hands. But he might not be able to connect with No. 1 receiver Travis Fulgham thanks to Giants cornerback James Bradberry, who has had an excellent season so far. (Fulgham had 73 yards the first time around, but Bradberry was covering DeSean Jackson for much of that game.)
Pick: Giants +3
Johnson: Miles Sanders is expected to play for the first time since Week 5, and the bye week as a whole will only help Philadelphia. Back in Week 7, on a Thursday night, a more depleted Eagles team was -5 in this same matchup without a rest advantage. Home-field advantage is minimal this season, and I'd be looking to buy Philly at -3 or better.
Pick: Eagles -3
Marks: Sterling Shepard is one of the best receivers in creating separation, averaging over three yards per route. Golden Tate suffered a knee injury at practice this week, which should keep Shepard in the slot against the Eagles. Shepard is averaging nine targets per game since he returned to the lineup, and with Darius Slayton expected to receive Darius Slay's attention, Shepard should be a giant factor this week.
Pick: Shepard over 44.5 receiving yards
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 50.5) at Carolina Panthers
Fortenbaugh: Tom Brady is 19-6 against the spread when coming off a double-digit loss, and 7-1 ATS when coming off a defeat of 20 or more points. After being embarrassed in their own building on national television last Sunday night, losing 38-3 to the Saints, you can bet we'll get a terrific effort from Brady & Co. here. Carolina has been one of the league's more intriguing teams this season, 5-4 ATS, and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is now 21-4 ATS as an underdog in his career. But the Panthers have dropped three straight, and their defense is ranked 31st in opponent third-down conversions (54.2%).
Pick: Buccaneers -4.5
Bearman: I fade the Buccaneers a lot, playing off the public's love of them. Last week the Saints were my biggest play of the week, and it worked out even better than I could've imagined. I got a text message from a buddy at halftime last Sunday night that said, "I would not want to be a Carolina Panther next week," and he is 100 percent right. Our Stats & Information department notes that Brady is 7-1 ATS coming off a loss of 20-plus points, and 16-3 ATS since 2003 in games after losing by double digits. Furthermore, his teams have covered in 11 straight, and 18 of the past 20, when failing to cover the week before by more than two touchdowns. In these teams' first matchup this season, the Bucs covered thanks to a late Leonard Fournette TD, but a closer look shows Tampa Bay was up 21-0 at the half before a Panthers rally. Bridgewater is great as an underdog (21-4 ATS), but for once I am rolling with Brady.
Pick: Buccaneers -4.5
Schatz: We know Brady likes to check off to his running backs, and lately the beneficiary of those plays has been Fournette rather than Ronald Jones II. Fournette has six or more targets in three straight games, with 15 total receptions over that period. Carolina opponents throw to their running backs more than the NFL average, and the Panthers rank 29th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game.
Pick: Fournette over 2.5 receptions (-160)
Marks: I love Curtis Samuel, but more importantly, Bridgewater loves Samuel. Christian McCaffrey will be inactive this week, which opens the door once again for Samuel to be a large part of the Panthers' offensive scheme. His matchup against Bucs slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting is a juicy one that Samuel can exploit.
Pick: Samuel over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-13.5, 50)
Schatz: Aaron Rodgers will go bonkers against a Jaguars defense ranked dead last in defensive DVOA. But the Packers' defense hasn't been great this year, and especially gives up a lot of yardage and points once Rodgers has staked it to an early lead. Green Bay's defense ranks 21st in DVOA, and it gets even worse when defending a lead of more than a touchdown in the second half. That should open things up for the Jaguars to score a couple of times late, Jake Luton or no Jake Luton. Atlanta, Houston and San Francisco all scored two touchdowns when trailing the Packers by 17 points or more in the second half. Minnesota, back in Week 1, scored three of 'em.
Pick: Over 50
Fulghum: Facing the Jaguars' defense -- which has allowed six of eight opponents to score 30-plus points -- will be child's play for Rodgers and Davante Adams. Both should have monster days against a leaky Jags secondary. These two teams are a combined 10-6 to the over this season.
Pick: Over 50, GB -13.5
Walder: Adams might be the most intimidating receiver to bet against right now, but ... I'm going to take the under here. While his receiving numbers are enormous, Adams is slightly below average when it comes to air yards per target and average depth three seconds downfield. That doesn't tell the full story; because of Adams' volume, there's essentially more bites at the apple for him to break off a long reception (either before or after the catch). But given the disparity in those initial numbers, I'm willing to take the chance he doesn't.
Pick: Adams longest reception under 26.5 yards (-110)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3, 49)
Kezirian: This is a square play and probably a trap, but I still have to play it. Houston has beaten only one team this year: the Jaguars. Houston has received so much respect from the betting market, but I do not quite understand it. The Texans are 1-7 ATS this season, which is the NFL's second-worst mark. That includes records of 0-5 ATS in the underdog role and 0-4 ATS on the road, which are both applicable here.
I have some concern backing Cleveland, given Baker Mayfield is on the reserve COVID-19 list and could miss the game. However, it is 2020 and sometimes you have to take a leap of faith. I am backing the better team at home.
Pick: Browns -3
Washington at Detroit Lions (-4, N/A)
Schatz: Based on overall ratings, we shouldn't feel strongly about this game. Detroit is 21st in DVOA, while Washington is 24th, not enough to make up a four-point line. However, it's important to look at offense and defense separately, because we know offense is more predictable than defense. Washington is ranked sixth on defense, but a horrible 31st on offense, including dead last in passing. And Alex Smith, in limited playing time, has been much worse than Kyle Allen: fewer yards per pass, lower success rate and a much lower DVOA thanks in part to the three interceptions he threw against the Giants last week.
Pick: Lions -4 (at DraftKings)
Kezirian: I do not have a ton of analysis here. Washington is relegated to Smith at quarterback after Allen was lost for the season with an injury in Sunday's loss to the Giants. While I am thrilled to see a healthy Smith return from such a gruesome injury, he is pretty limited right now. I have to back the Lions in what I think will be a one-sided game. I just have to hope that Matthew Stafford clears concussion protocol. The Lions might be without WR Kenny Golladay and TE T.J. Hockenson.
Pick: Lions -4 (at DK)
4 p.m. ET games
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 56.5)
Fulghum: This matchup promises to deliver fireworks with two of the best multidimensional QBs in the NFL facing off. Bills games have gone over at a 6-2-1 clip, and the pace of this game should be lightning fast with Josh Allen and Kyler Murray trading blows.
Pick: Over 56.5
Schatz: The Seahawks are not the Cardinals. They have entirely different defenses. This prop seems drunk on the fact that Allen threw for 415 yards last week in a pass-happy game plan against the terrible Seahawks defense. But Allen has averaged only 258 passing yards per game over his past six games, even including last week's huge performance. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 11th in pass defense DVOA, and they cut opposing passing yardage by an average of 6% per game. Arizona has given up more than 280 passing yards only once this year. Ironically, that was against Seattle. Football Outsiders estimates Allen has a better than 70% chance to hit this under.
Pick: Allen under 296.5 yards
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 48.5)
Fortenbaugh: The Dolphins edged the Cardinals in a shootout, while the Chargers lost for the sixth time in seven games, and the opening line for this matchup moves from Miami -3 to Miami -2.5? Something stinks here. Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is now 2-0, but his offense has been outgained by significant margins both times. In fact, the Rams and Cardinals outgained the Dolphins by a staggering 456 yards the past two weeks, yet both came away empty-handed thanks to turnovers (Rams) and suspect coaching (Cardinals). Positive regression is coming and this just might be the week, against a Chargers team that has played seven one-score games -- the problem is, the Chargers have lost six of them.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
Bearman: I do agree with Joe's assessment on positive regression, but not this week! The Dolphins' three losses have all been to mobile quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson), and they struggled to stop Kyler Murray last week. While Justin Herbert can move, he has run more than five times only once this season. In four games against teams without a mobile QB, the Dolphins have allowed under 12 points per game, and won all four. The Dolphins also have one of the top special-teams units in the league, and an opportunistic defense that has scored in each of the past two games. Miami is 15-5 ATS dating back to last season's bye, the best mark in the league in that span, and has covered this season (6-2 ATS) by an average of 11.2 points per game, on pace for the best mark in the Super Bowl era.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5
Walder: Between Tagovailoa and a feisty pass defense, the Dolphins are pretty fun right now! But looking at the numbers, I see no option but to bet against DeVante Parker here. Looking at Parker's opportunity numbers, his expected completed air yards per game is just 31.3, per NFL Next Gen Stats data. While I don't have anything formal set up to translate those numbers to receiving lines, it has been rare to see a line that's more than double the player's previous opportunity. And sure, there's been a quarterback change, but I'm not sure we know that Tagovailoa currently is an asset to Parker with regard to this prop relative to Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Pick: Parker under 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: I'm banking on Herbert staying within a touchdown of Tua and the Dolphins on the road. Miami blitzes over 40% of the time, and Herbert shines vs. the blitz with a 120 passer rating. The matchup I most anticipate is the Chargers' defensive line, with Joey Bosa back in action, dominating against a subpar Dolphins offensive line.
Pick: Chargers +8.5 in teaser with Ravens -1
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5, 51)
Fulghum: The Broncos' offensive output has a good chance at hitting its ceiling against a Raiders defense that is bottom four in the NFL in sack rate and QB hit rate. Drew Lock should keep his string of solid outings intact, especially since all of his pass-catchers have great matchups. Similarly, Derek Carr is matched up against a Broncos defense that has allowed all eight QBs to post top-15 fantasy finishes. Both signal-callers are in great spots to drive scoring output.
Pick: Over 51
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-10, 49)
Fortenbaugh: The last we saw these two teams, the 49ers were getting run out of their own building by the Packers on Thursday night, while the Saints were trashing the Buccaneers on Sunday night. As a result, we get a predictably large point spread for this matchup. Many people expect a blowout, but I'm running the opposite way. Prior to the blowout of Tampa Bay, New Orleans had played five straight games decided by seven or fewer points. The Saints entered Week 9 with a 5-2 record, but only a +9 scoring differential. With San Francisco getting healthy at wide receiver, this spot is ripe for the underdog.
Pick: 49ers +10
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 55.5)
Fortenbaugh: New defenders, same old story for the Seahawks, who welcomed back pass-rusher Carlos Dunlap and safety Jamal Adams to the starting lineup last Sunday at Buffalo, only to then surrender 420 total yards and 44 points in the team's second loss in three weeks. The Seahawks rank dead last in total defense (455.8 yards per game), 30th in scoring defense (30.4 points per game) and 24th in opponent third-down conversions (47.6%). Rams head coach Sean McVay has two weeks to prepare for this porous unit, while laying only 1.5 points? I'm in, especially given it'll be a rested Rams defense trying to chase Russell Wilson around for four quarters.
Pick: Rams -1.5
Fulghum: McVay is 4-2 in his career against the Seahawks and has never struggled to score. The Rams are probably being undervalued since they looked so terrible the last time we saw them against Miami. The Seahawks have the worst pass defense in the NFL, and Jared Goff should bounce back nicely. Conversely, the Rams' pass defense will be by far the best Wilson has seen all season, and Aaron Donald usually finds a way to get into Russ' kitchen at least once or twice a game.
Pick: Over 55.5, Rams -1.5
Marks: The Rams come into this game off a bye, while Seattle is on the second leg of back-to-back road trips. The Rams are 4-1 in their past five games against Seattle. The Seahawks haven't been able to figure out how to stop McVay's offense, which has averaged over 30 points per game against them. Jalen Ramsey and the Rams' secondary should keep DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in check.
Pick: Rams -1.5
Clay: Robert Woods has reached 60 receiving yards in half his eight games this season (10 of 15 dating back to 2019). He's done that with the Rams averaging 37.8 drop-backs per game. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have faced an astounding 50.6 drop-backs per game -- that's led to them allowing a league-high 280 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, including at least 200 yards in seven of eight games. Nineteen wide receivers have had 60 or more receiving yards against the Seahawks this season. The Rams have been operating a pass-first offense lately, after a run-heavy start to 2020, and Woods should see a boost on his 6.9 targets per game this week.
Pick: Woods over 59.5 receiving yards