In Week 9, and subsequently now in Week 10, teams are facing coronavirus-related issues that are causing players to miss games, and the domino effect is leading to multiple players missing practices for contact tracing as well. On Sunday night I was more cautious about taking big positions early in the week with all of the uncertainty surrounding the players and teams in the league. What I wound up doing was essentially a Week 10 market watch with my first thoughts on 11 matchups here.
You can use that as a guide throughout the week as you make your betting decisions in the NFL. In the meantime, I'm going to take a look at ESPN's new Power Rankings and compare the biggest differences to my power ratings.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
3. Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
4. Green Bay Packers (6-2)
5. New Orleans Saints (6-2)
6. Buffalo Bills (7-2)
7. Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
9. Tennessee Titans (6-2)
10. Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
Preston's Week 10 Power Ratings
(How many points worse than Kansas City on a neutral field)
1. Chiefs
2. Ravens +1.0
3. Saints +3.7
4. Seahawks +3.9
5. Steelers +4.0
6. Packers +4.3
7. Buccaneers +4.5
8. Indianapolis Colts +5.7
9. Los Angeles Rams +6.0
10. Titans +6.8
Are the Steelers really the best team in the NFL? My colleagues think that is the case, placing them in the No. 1 spot for three straight weeks. It's just not true, however, and while I'm not sure it will present many betting opportunities in the much more sophisticated betting market, it's important to recognize that a win-loss record isn't always going to be the best gauge of a team's true value.
So which things are? A combination of priors (team valuations entering the season), the betting market and the actual results and data of the games played during the season are good places to start. For example, the Saints made a jump to No. 3 this week in my power ratings, while the Buccaneers drifted down to No. 7. My priors on the Saints were already strong, and their 38-3 win in Tampa Bay graded as the most impactful result in my numbers this season. It seems obvious, but a 38-3 win is worth a lot more than a 38-35 win would be, and basing things strictly on win-loss records isn't going to capture that.
The Bills and Cardinals are in the top 10 of the ESPN Power Rankings, but they are missing from my top 10. Before I get too many #BillsMafia notifications spamming my Twitter feed the rest of the week, it's worth noting I have the Bills at No. 11 (and the Cardinals at No. 12). Buffalo's win against Seattle was extremely impressive, and I loved to see Josh Allen drop back and pass on 29 of 30 early-down opportunities. The Bills know how to attack teams' weaknesses, and they're definitely trending up again. My prediction? The Colts beat the Titans in Tennessee, and the winner of the Buffalo-Arizona matchup makes an appearance in my top 10.