Rather than focusing on a couple of games, here are my early thoughts on each of the games we have lines on. I'm shying away from early betting this week due to all the COVID-related concerns.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 50)
The only look for me would be the Colts getting 2.5 points. My concern right now is Colts linebacker Darius Leonard's status. Leonard had missed some time before returning last week against the Lions. And he missed the second half of Sunday's game against the Ravens. Baltimore hadn't scored a single offensive point in the first half when Leonard was on the field, but in the second half the Ravens ran away with the game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5, 47.5)
I think the Bengals are feisty enough to stay within single digits. My concern is that both Cincinnati offensive tackles and the center were out last week, and I'm not sure where the efficiency will come from against a Pittsburgh pass rush ranked No. 2 in adjusted sack rate, if those O-linemen aren't ready to go. My personal projection, assuming better health for the Bengals, is Steelers -7.4, so it isn't a worthwhile enough discrepancy for me to play it anyway.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 54.5)
The Browns have placed Baker Mayfield on the COVID-19 list -- I would normally wait to confirm Mayfield's status, but I anticipate this total going down either way, with an early forecast showing 17-19 mph winds and a 50% chance of rain. Plus the Cleveland defense should be better prepared coming off a bye week. I've already grabbed under 54.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-13.5, 53)
My projection is Packers -13. It didn't appear that Jake Luton was a gigantic drop-off at quarterback for the Jaguars. The early weather forecast calls for 11-14 mph winds and some rain, but nothing Aaron Rodgers can't handle. I'm completely passing on this game.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 42) at New York Giants
Miles Sanders is expected to return, and the bye week will only help Philadelphia. Back in Week 7, on a Thursday night, a more depleted Eagles team was -5 in this same matchup without a rest advantage. Home-field advantage is minimal this season, and I'd be looking to buy Philly at -3 or better.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5, 50.5)
Raiders overs have been a thing, outside of the extreme wind game last week in Cleveland. Meanwhile, Drew Lock has been great against prevent defenses the past two weeks, leading comebacks against the Chargers and Falcons. Could we see Las Vegas with a multiple-score lead in this game? It's certainly possible. My personal projection is 51.5, and while 51 is a fairly key number for a total in this range, it isn't quite enough of a discrepancy for me to jump in.
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 53.5)
The fact that Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins were able to score on the Cardinals with ease has me encouraged about what Josh Allen can do here. On the other side, Kyler Murray going absolutely bonkers against a much better Dolphins defense is promising as well. I have this projected as closer to 55, so I would only look over here.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 55.5)
My projection makes the Seahawks a one-point favorite. I'm not in the business of betting +1 when I only make the game -1 (minimal difference), so this will be a pass for me. I am curious to see if the total moves up any more. The Rams' defense will be the best that the Seahawks have faced, and they are coming off a bye week. If the market continues to move up and this touches 57, that's my buy point for a bet under.
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 41) at New England Patriots
The Patriots still need to play Monday night, but regardless of how good they look against the Jets, I don't think the market perception will change too much. I would snag the Ravens now, under the key number of -7. The Patriots rank 25th in the NFL in success rate against the run, and 28th in adjusted line yards, playing into Baltimore's ability to run the football.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 50)
The Chargers find a way to lose every week in excruciating fashion, but don't let their 2-6 record fool you. Most people will question a 5-3 Miami team laying only -2.5 at home, but it's a fair number. I'm staying away and enjoying what should be a great game.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 44.5) at Chicago Bears
I actually took a shot on the Vikings to win the NFC North at +4000 this week. It's not very likely, but with an improving defense and Dalvin Cook's ability to wear down defenses and score with explosive plays, I thought it was a worthwhile price. The Bears have lost three in a row, and if there was a time to "buy low" on Chicago it is probably now, while everyone starts hyping Minnesota. The Bears' defense is certainly good enough to keep this close, but unless this goes to +3 I'll be staying on the sidelines.