The New England Patriots (2-5) have lost four straight games, but now head to the Meadowlands to take on the winless New York Jets (0-8) as big favorites (and the line keeps climbing).
ESPN betting experts Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, ESPN analytics' Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday (unless otherwise indicated).
New England Patriots (-9.5, 41) at New York Jets
Patriots -9.5
Marks: Joe Flacco is expected to start, working with a healthy wide receivers group, but that still won't be enough. Cam Newton looked better last week, as if the COVID-19 funk is over. The Patriots should win their ninth straight against the Jets, a team whose focus is more on the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes than winning their first game of the season.
Under 41
Fortenbaugh: The Jets haven't scored more than 10 points in any of their past four games. In fact, they've eclipsed that meager total only three times in eight games. And then there's the Patriots, losing five of their past six, and scoring a grand total of 49 points in their previous four games. Look for the Pats to implement a run-heavy attack (third in NFL in rushing attempts per game, 31.6), controlling the tempo and grinding the clock.
Frank Gore over 9.5 rushing attempts
Schatz: Gore has 10 or more carries in six of eight games this season, and the Jets will want to run with Flacco starting at quarterback. Also, the Patriots have a bunch of injuries across their defense, which could keep this game closer than expected and encourage the Jets to run the ball.
Chase Winovich under 0.5 sacks (-134 at DraftKings)
Walder: Winovich has been an absolute darling of our win rate metrics this season, and just a few weeks ago I identified him as a breakout candidate based on both his pass-rushing and run-stopping metrics. But then ... he stopped playing? In Mike Reiss' notebook Sunday, he noted that Winovich has played just 40 snaps the past three weeks, and "it doesn't add up for pure football reasons." Given Winovich's stellar play when he has been on the field, this line is probably around what we might expect if we knew he was getting a full workload. But we certainly can't be sure of that.