When an NFL team uses an early-round pick on a prospect, it has high expectations for him to develop into an above-average every-day starter. But every player, roster and situation are different, as are development time frames. So while some might be willing to write off a handful of high selections from the past few draft classes already, I'm not so sure that's a good idea just yet.
Here are eight players who I think can still develop into high-end starters in the NFL and meet their draft value. Some haven't put it all together just yet, while others need a better situation and/or supporting cast. Either way, these young players can all still make the jump, and I'm not giving up on their doing so just yet.
Note: I didn't include players from the 2020 draft class, as the sample size is too small. Instead, this list is made up of players drafted in 2019 or earlier.
Sam Darnold, QB, New York Jets
Expectations are always sky high for a quarterback taken in the top five picks of a draft. And when Darnold led the Jets to a 48-17 win in his NFL debut back in 2018, just a few months after going No. 3 in the draft, it looked like New York had found its sure-fire QB of the future. But Darnold has gotten a lot of criticism for his play over 31 starts since that rookie opener.
The USC product dealt with injuries over his first three seasons, even sitting out three games in 2019 with mononucleosis. And when he has been on the field and healthy, he has played behind a makeshift offensive line. Only four QBs have faced more pressure than Darnold (34.9% of dropbacks) since the beginning of 2018. And according to ESPN Stats & Information metrics, only the Giants have sustained their blocks for at least 2.5 seconds at a lower rate than the Jets' 45.6% this season.
Then there are the skill positions. Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson have been his most productive targets in the passing game over Darnold's career, but Crowder's 833 yards in 2019 is the best season for a Jets receiver since he was drafted in 2015. Crowder has missed four of eight games this year, and Anderson signed with the Panthers during the offseason. Running back Le'Veon Bell came to the Jets with a lot of hype but was cut in October after gaining just 1,363 yards from scrimmage over 17 games. So you get the point: Darnold needs help.
Whether that help comes in New York or with another team is still up in the air. If the Jets land the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft and Trevor Lawrence is available -- or even if they slide to No. 2 and Justin Fields is there -- Darnold could be on the trade market. Or perhaps the Jets trade down for more first-round picks to build more around Darnold. The team already has four of them over the next two drafts, thanks to the Jamal Adams deal.
If Darnold is moved by the Jets, the other 31 teams should know he is a confident passer with great pocket presence and an ability to extend plays. He has above-average accuracy, as well. He just needs to find some help to reach his potential.
The 23-year-old has a 59.7% completion percentage and 39 touchdowns to 34 interceptions over his career. And his 2020 campaign has seen an ugly 40.2 Total QBR and just three touchdowns to six picks. He has also taken 19 sacks over those six games. But again, I want to see how he performs with a better supporting cast before I close the door on his upside as an NFL starting quarterback.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions
It might seem odd to include Hockenson here, given his run of three touchdowns over the Lions' past four games. But it's worth remembering that the former Iowa tight end largely looked overwhelmed as a rookie, playing in 12 games and recording 367 yards and a pair of TDs. He caught just 56.1% of his targets in 2019 -- 30th in the NFL among tight ends -- and didn't do much to reaffirm Detroit's decision to take him eighth overall.
But Hockenson has impressed in 2020. He looks more comfortable in the Lions' offense and like a more mature player. I've said since he came out of Iowa that he is a complete tight end, a guy who can pluck the ball, separate with speed and block when needed. He's strong in traffic and can pile on chunks of yardage after the catch.
We've already seen him excel this season while being more incorporated into the offense, already nearly surpassing his 2019 yardage total (321), doubling his touchdowns (four) and averaging 11.1 yards per catch. Hockenson leads Detroit in receptions (29) and targets (41) this season, and he is tacking on more than 5 yards per reception after the catch. Watch him continue to ascend to star status at the position over the next year or so.
Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos
I'm stopping short of saying Lock will be a star in the NFL, but I do think he can be a solid starting quarterback. Those are hard to find. Plain and simple, his stats don't yet match his ability, and much like Darnold's situation, a big reason is his supporting cast. The Denver offensive line hasn't helped him (Ja'Wuan James' opt-out particularly hurt), and No. 1 wide receiver Courtland Sutton went down in Week 2 after playing just 29 snaps on the season. Plus, Lock has had injuries himself, keeping him from two starts and the better part of a third this year. The 2019 second-rounder has 10 starts in his career and has won six of them. There is still plenty of time to see what Lock can do.
Lock is tough in the pocket, possesses a very strong arm and connects with a lot of high-level ball-placement throws. He has completed just 58% of his throws on the season, and his 4-to-5 TD-INT ratio is not ideal, but as I said, the stats aren't yet matching his ability. Part of that is the fact he's under pressure on 35.1% of his dropbacks in 2020, the sixth-highest rate in the league. But he is as competitive as they come, shown most recently by a huge fourth-quarter comeback on Sunday (three touchdowns, including the game winner in the final second). The production should catch up to the talent soon.
Lock needs to continue honing his craft mentally and find some consistency with his mechanics. But he certainly still has the potential to be a quality starter for Denver, especially if he gets a little help. Give him some more time.
Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans
Simmons played in just nine games in 2019, after being selected 19th overall, thanks to a knee injury suffered during draft prep that year. He posted 2.0 sacks and 32 tackles as a rookie. Then he lost 10 pounds coming into this season and already has as many sacks through six games, along with 25 tackles and a fumble recovery. For Simmons, it really seems like it is all about getting healthy.
He has quick hands and a solid first step. When he's on his game, he is incredibly disruptive. If Simmons can make the jump, Tennessee will immediately see a boost in pass-rushing along that defensive line.
Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears
Miller was an intriguing pick at No. 58 overall in 2018, but he hasn't really emerged in a lackluster Bears passing offense behind Allen Robinson II. His seven touchdowns on 33 catches during his rookie year were followed up with just two last season on 52 receptions. His 85 targets in 2019 produced south of 700 receiving yards.
This season has been a mixed bag. He stood out in a Week 1 win against Detroit, hauling in four passes for 76 yards and a TD. But since, he has largely struggled to reach 40 yards receiving, and even posted an oh-fer in Week 2 against the Giants. Then this past week happened, giving us a glimpse of his real potential. Miller saw 11 targets -- one fewer than he had seen in the three prior games combined and five more than he had seen in any other game this season -- and turned them into eight catches for 73 yards against the Saints. He has the talent to post those types of numbers any given week and cement himself as a solid No. 2 behind Robinson or a very good No. 3 option.
Miller can be very good out of the slot; his 23 catches when lined up there are eighth among all players this season. Despite average 5-foot-11 size and unremarkable run-after-catch ability, he has quickness and separates from coverage. His ball skills are solid. I think he just needs to be more consistent with the mental aspect of playing the position and regain the trust of his quarterbacks and coaches.
Darnell Savage, S, Green Bay Packers
Savage was a late riser in the 2019 draft class, ultimately going to the Packers at No. 21. He started 14 games during his rookie campaign and posted 55 tackles, two interceptions and two forced fumbles. The turnover success hasn't carried over to 2020, but he still has 31 tackles in six games.
There are reasons for optimism: First, he has tons of versatility. Green Bay can move him around its defense, whether it's as a free safety or nickel, and whether it's in man coverage or zone looks. Second, Savage is a very smart, instinctive football player. And third, I think he will only continue to get better.
Irv Smith Jr., TE, Minnesota Vikings
Smith is a really good matchup piece for the Vikings' offense. I said that even before he was drafted 50th overall in 2019. So sooner or later, the production will creep in, because he has the speed to separate from linebackers vertically and he's dangerous after the catch. In short, Smith is really difficult to cover -- he is essentially a big, 242-pound wide receiver who can get down the seam with his wheels.
To this point, Smith has 47 catches on 64 targets for 460 yards and a touchdown over 23 career games. But his 13.6 yards per catch this season ranks fifth among tight ends with at least 10 receptions, and he seems close to a breakout game.
Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago Bears
The eighth overall pick in 2018 looked terrific during his rookie year in Chicago, but his play dipped in Year 2. Now in 2020, Smith is playing at a high level once again. And I think he has a good chance to have the kind of impact that linebacker Patrick Willis, with whom he shares a similar skill set, had for the 49ers during his career.
People I've spoken to within the Bears' organization are excited about Smith's improvement this year. The 23-year-old has 71 tackles (tied for fifth in the NFL) and a forced fumble through eight games, and he has three games with double-digit tackles. Expect him to soon be included among the top linebackers in the NFL.