I'm revisiting the comparison between ESPN's top 10 power rankings and mine this week. I had a couple of new teams jump into the mix, and I think it's worthwhile seeing how much better I value each team relative to the Chiefs (the number next to the team is how big of an underdog I would expect it to be on a neutral field against Kansas City). Recognizing where our rankings differ -- combined with seeing my numbers and values of teams relative to one another -- can be a resource for those looking to do their own betting each week.
We'll also dive into two of the major market moves we have seen early in Week 7 and try to quantify just how bad the 2020 New York Jets are historically relative to the betting markets.
1. Seattle Seahawks (5-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0)
4. Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
5. Tennessee Titans (5-0)
6. Green Bay Packers (4-1)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
8. Buffalo Bills (4-2)
9. New Orleans Saints (3-2)
10. Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
Preston's Power Ratings
1. Chiefs
2. Ravens (+1.1)
3. Seahawks (+3.5)
4. Packers (+4.2)
5. Buccaneers (+4.8)
6. Saints (+4.9)
7. Steelers (+5.0)
8. Titans (+6.3)
9. Bills (+6.4)
10. Rams (+6.7)
As much as I love Russell Wilson and the Seahawks this season, there isn't any market in the world that would make them a favorite on a neutral field over Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes under center. I know the Chiefs have a loss to their name, but assessing a team's value moving forward is much more nuanced than looking at a win-loss record. I feel like the ESPN power rankings made a similar mistake with putting the Steelers ahead of the Ravens as well. I have been cautious upgrading Pittsburgh as the Steelers were notching wins against below-average competition, but the 38-7 drubbing of the Browns catapulted them into my top 10. But are they better than the Ravens now? Not quite.
On the positive side, our top 10s consist of the same 10 teams. I would suggest the power rankings are overvaluing Tennessee and undervaluing New Orleans to some extent, but overall they did a good job capturing the NFL's 10 best teams.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 43.5)
I wrote about this matchup in our first look on Sunday night. I wanted to wait and see the verdict on the Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders injuries before betting this game, and with a short turnaround to their matchup on Thursday, both are inactive. We've seen this line drop from -6 to -4 since the news was made official Monday. A couple of rare pluses on the health front for Philly, however: TE Dallas Goedert and rookie WR Jalen Reagor are both expected to return from the injured reserve.
While it will help to get a few weapons back for Carson Wentz, it's truly jaw-dropping how unlucky the Eagles have been with injuries across the board on offense. Check out this tweet from ESPN's Bill Barnwell. I try my best to efficiently account for every player and his impact on the point spread. Cluster injuries compound those impacts. I agree that the losses of Ertz and Sanders are worth a move down, but I didn't think the -5.5s and -6s in the market were correct to begin with (as noted in our first look piece).
I anticipate that -4s are the bottom in regard to buying the Eagles this week. If you want to buy low on an Eagles squad that is still in the NFC East race, now is the time. If you want action on the other side, I think you will be able to wait and get a better number than +4 before kickoff.
Bills (-13, 46) at Jets
I can't help but feel for Jets fans when I look at this point spread. The market implies that the Jets are 13 points worse than the Bills -- and they're playing at home. Put it this way: The Jets are 13-point home underdogs to the ninth-best team in the NFL (per my ratings). At this point in the season, I have the Jets grading out as 11.5 points worse than a league-average team on a neutral field.
How about this: The lookahead line for their matchup next week in Kansas City is 22. Twenty-two! According to ESPN Stats & Information research, this would be the 10th point spread of 22 or higher since the merger in 1970. The Jets are historically awful. I asked a few NFL bettors to dig into their databases and put into context where the 2020 Jets land for them relative to their betting history.
Rufus Peabody, a professional bettor that devises game grades for each game a team plays, said his composite game grades for the 2020 Jets through Week 6 are the third-worst in his database (2013 Jaguars, 2019 Dolphins).
And Drew Dinsick, who makes regular media appearances discussing betting on NFL games, told me he would make them underdogs to the winless 2008 Detroit Lions. Let that sink in.
This point spread opened Buffalo -11, and it shouldn't surprise anybody that it has moved up to -13. I was playing a game in my head for the last few minutes as I wrote this. I asked myself, at what number do you consider betting the Jets here? +14? +17?
It certainly isn't +13, and as long as this sits under two touchdowns, I could look only Buffalo's way. I'm not much for betting narratives or "situational spots," but a team like the 2020 Jets could easily be overlooked at some point this season by a superior team. The Bills, who are coming off of back-to-back losses to the Titans and Chiefs, however, are the last team I imagine loses focus in this spot. Steer clear of New York -- for now.