The 2020 college football season is technically three weeks old, but we've only been cruising along in about second gear. The weekend slates have not exactly been overloaded, and only two of five power conferences have gotten started to date.
That changes this weekend when the SEC, the power-iest of power conferences, kicks off. (The Big Ten will join the party in a month, and the Pac-12 could still choose to play around that time too.) To commemorate the occasion, let's make a quick run-through of this week's SEC slate. My SP+ ratings and the Las Vegas lines are awfully close for most of the games, but let's talk about the most important thing each team has to do to exceed projections and cover.
Tennessee Volunteers (-3.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
SP+ projection: Tennessee by 4.6 (24.2-19.6)
Tennessee covers if ... the defense looks the part. The Vols improved dramatically on that side of the ball in 2019, and they're projected seventh in defensive SP+. A top-10 caliber defense shouldn't have much trouble with a South Carolina offense that is heavily in transition.
South Carolina covers if ... a skill corps standout emerges. The Gamecocks have been wrecked by attrition, opt-outs, injury and eligibility issues; no returnee had more than 500 receiving yards or 200 rushing yards. Someone has to damage a solid defense, and I'm not sure who it will be.
Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers (-10.5)
SP+ projection: Auburn by 8.0 (29.3-21.3)
Kentucky covers if ... its big, physical offensive line establishes itself. The UK offense ignited late in 2019, and while do-it-all Lynn Bowden Jr. is gone, almost everyone else is back. And the Wildcats could have a trenches advantage against an Auburn defensive front that has plenty of talent but did lose a couple of key pieces.
Auburn covers if ... Bo Nix is ready for a second-year leap. Nix helped Auburn to nine wins as a freshman QB, but he struggled at times, and Kentucky's secondary is experienced and physical. Can Nix and new coordinator Chad Morris find enough success to live up to a 29-point projection?
Florida Gators (-14.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
SP+ projection: Florida by 15.0 (34.2-19.2)
Florida covers if ... a new pass-rusher is ready. The Gators return most of last year's defense but lose rush end Jonathan Greenard, and the inaugural Lane Kiffin Rebels' offense could be dangerous if Florida can't get to the QB and get off the field on passing downs.
Ole Miss covers if ... its newish secondary beats Florida's newish receiving corps. Ole Miss returns only three of last year's top six DBs, while the Gators return two of their top six WRs. No one doubts Florida's talent, but Ole Miss has an opportunity to render UF inefficient.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers (-16.5)
SP+ projection: LSU by 15.2 (37.5-22.3)
MSU covers if ... Mike Leach's offense really does only take three days to install, as he always says. The Bulldogs are a mystery with a new head coach, a transfer QB (K.J. Costello) and an enormous receiving corps adapting to a new system. If it takes LSU a while to adapt to an in-rhythm attack, MSU could stay close.
LSU covers if ... last year's talented backups are ready. We've talked a lot about how much talent the Tigers have lost, both on the field and in the coaching booth, but they still return more raw upside than anyone besides Alabama and maybe Georgia. If it asserts itself, LSU is in position to overachieve projections.
Georgia Bulldogs (-26.5) at Arkansas Razorbacks
SP+ projection: Georgia by 27.0 (36.3-9.2)
Georgia covers if ... the starting QB is strong. Be it JT Daniels or D'Wan Mathis, the quarterback of choice might be the most important player in college football this year. Georgia's defense is going to be absurd, but a disappointing offense has to rebound, and Arkansas could offer it a fast start.
Arkansas covers if ... Georgia's offense isn't ready. New Hogs defensive coordinator (and former Mizzou head coach) Barry Odom knows Georgia's personnel well, and if last year's UGA offense shows up, this could be a slog. It will be an easy Georgia win regardless, but maybe more of the 28-7 variety.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-27) at Missouri Tigers
SP+ projection: Alabama by 23.1 (37.3-14.2)
Bama covers if ... the repaired front seven looks like we all assume it will. Last year's injuries have created this year's depth, and a depleted Mizzou offensive line might not hold up nearly enough for the Tigers to secure their projected 14 points.
Mizzou covers if ... the defense pounces on any Mac Jones mistakes. Jones was mostly great at the end of last year, but Mizzou's experienced safety corps and linebacker Nick Bolton could be outstanding. Pick off a couple of passes, give your overwhelmed offense a short field or two and keep this in reach just long enough to lose by less than 27.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas A&M Aggies (-31)
SP+ projection: A&M by 32.3 (39.7-7.3)
Vandy covers if ... A&M's new receiving corps hasn't jelled yet. The Vandy offense has almost nothing to offer, but the defense should improve, and A&M's biggest question mark comes out wide. If the Aggies are rendered one-dimensional, they might struggle to pull away.
A&M covers if ... Vandy's offense is as bad as projected. No quarterbacks with experience, no proven skill corps guys, no proven linemen. Things seem so hopeless on paper that I saw the projection above and thought, "There's no way they score 7!" Prove me wrong, Commodores.
Win Totals
It was pretty hard to find revised win totals in the run-up to this odd season -- hard enough that I basically made my own a couple of weeks ago. On the off chance you find some totals to wager on, however, you should be prepared. Below are guidelines for each team based on projected SP+ win probabilities and what lines you might encounter. (2020 SEC win total odds, per SP+.)
Alabama
Key probability: 62% chance of winning fewer than 9 games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 8, under 9.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 8.5 or 9, bet the under if odds are -160 or more, bet the over if odds are +160 or more.
Arkansas
Key probability: 56% chance of winning fewer than 2 games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 1, under 2.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 1.5 or 2, bet the under if odds are -125 or more, bet the over if odds are +125 or more.
Auburn
Key probability: 57% chance of winning fewer than 7 games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 6, under 7.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 6.5 or 7, bet the under if odds are -130 or more, bet the over if odds are +130 or more.
Florida
Key probability: 53% chance of winning 8 or more games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 7, under 8.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 7.5 or 8, bet the over if odds are -110 or more, bet the under if odds are +115 or more.
Georgia
Key probability: 51% chance of winning 8 or more games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 7, under 8.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 7.5 or 8, bet the over if odds are -105 or more, bet the under if odds are +105 or more.
Kentucky
Key probabilities: 64% chance of winning 5 or more games, 36% chance of winning 6 or more.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 4, under 6.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 4.5 or 5, bet the over if odds are -180 or more, bet the under if odds are +180 or more; for totals of 5.5 or 6, bet the under if odds are -180 or more, bet the over if odds are +180 or more.
LSU
Key probability: 52% chance of winning fewer than 7 games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 6, under 7.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 6.5 or 7, bet the under if odds are -110 or more, bet the over if odds are +110 or more.
Mississippi State
Key probability: 53% chance of winning fewer than 4 games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 3, under 4.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 3.5 or 4, bet the under if odds are -115 or more, bet the over if odds are +115 or more.
Missouri
Key probability: 51% chance of winning 4 or more games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 3, under 4.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 3.5 or 4, bet the over if odds are -105 or more, bet the under if odds are +105 or more.
Ole Miss
Key probability: 66% chance of winning 4 or more games, 37% chance of winning 5 or more.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 3, under 5.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 3.5 or 4, bet the over if odds are -190 or more, bet the under if odds are +190 or more; for totals of 4.5 or 5, bet the under if odds are -170 or more, bet the under if odds are +170 or more.
South Carolina
Key probability: 64% chance of winning 4 or more games; 36% chance of winning five or more.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 3, under 5.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 3.5 or 4, bet the over if odds are -180 or more, bet the under if odds are +180 or more; for totals of 4.5 or 5, bet the under if odds are -180 or more, bet the under if odds are +180 or more.
Tennessee
Key probability: 57% chance of winning fewer than 6 games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 5, under 6.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 5.5 or 6, bet the under if odds are -130 or more, bet the over if odds are +130 or more.
Texas A&M
Key probability: 50% chance of winning 7 or more games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 6, under 7.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 6.5 or 7, bet whichever odds are positive (so if under is -110 and over is +110, bet over).
Vanderbilt
Key probability: 60% chance of winning 1 or more games.
Barring wild odds ... always bet: over 0, under 1.5.
Watch the odds ... for totals of 0.5 or 1, bet the over if odds are -150 or more, bet the under if odds are +150 or more.