Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks, Preston Johnson and Tyler Fulghum, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Seth Walder of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday night.
1 p.m. ET games
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 42)
Schatz: One of the most important precepts of football analytics is that defense is less consistent than offense from year to year. And there are plenty of reasons to believe the Patriots' defense is going to decline this year. Turnovers regress heavily to the mean, and the Patriots were extremely dependent on interceptions to put up their big defensive numbers in the first half of last season. In addition, the Patriots have lost more defensive talent than almost any team in history based on Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value. Combine that with the fact that the Miami offense might be a bit underrated -- Ryan Fitzpatrick was a shocking eighth in QBR last year -- and this over/under seems way too low.
Pick: Over 42
Bearman: I've had my eye on this one since it was first announced that Tom Brady was taking his talents to Tampa. Even with Tom Terrific in Foxborough, Massachusetts, the Dolphins have split the season series with the Patriots in six of the past seven seasons, which includes a Week 17 win on the road last season behind 320 yards and two total touchdowns from Fitzpatrick.
"Fitzmagic" is back behind center for the Dolphins to start the season and will face a Patriots defense that was decimated in the offseason, as Aaron mentioned above. Fitzpatrick quietly averaged 309 Pass YPG with 12 TDs over the final seven games last season, in which the Dolphins covered in four. The Dolphins covered in nine of their final 12 games, all as an underdog.
As for the Patriots, everyone has trust in Bill Belichick, but who has trust in Cam Newton? The last time we saw Newton, he was in the midst of losing eight consecutive starts (1-7 ATS) for the Panthers. I'm not saying the Cam-Patriots pairing won't be a success -- no one will be surprised to see New England win 10 games and the division again -- I'm just saying it takes time to learn a new offense and culture. In the meantime, give me the touchdown.
Pick: Buy Dolphins to 7
Johnson: Belichick and Newton clearly have plenty to prove this season, as do the rest of the Patriots. I expect Josh McDaniels to have fun with the versatility Newton brings to his offense under center, but the turnover on the defensive side of the ball is worrisome. Considering they get a Fitzpatrick-led Miami offense that exploded when he took over last season, I'm surprised to see this total drop from 43 to 42 once he was announced as the Week 1 starter. My projection for the game is 44.8, so 42 is good enough for me to play.
Pick: Over 42
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 48.5)
Walder: I'm ludicrously bullish on Cleveland -- which has an absolutely stacked roster outside of the quarterback position -- this year. Between that, a new offensive system and organizational buy-in on analytics, I see big things for the Browns. Three simple changes I'd expect to see: more play-action, more first-down passing and more fourth-down aggression. Those are no-brainer value-add changes that any data-driven team should make and together ought to give a healthy bump to the Cleveland offense. That's before we get into any other changes from Freddie Kitchens' scheme, which we can assume will only be an upgrade.
Pick: Browns +8
Johnson: One of my favorite things to do is buy on a team the year after they get over hyped and drastically underachieve. I don't think Cleveland is getting enough love in 2020 with the roster it still has after making the regime change. Let's start in Week 1 with a bet on the Browns against a John Harbaugh team that has generally feasted in the preseason for four games as they gear up for the start of the regular season. They take the preseason as serious as anybody in the NFL. Toss those tune-ups aside this time around for Baltimore, and considering I project this point spread in the matchup to be only 6.7, I'm thrilled to take the eight points over the key number of seven in Week 1.
Pick: Browns +8
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 39)
Marks: I understand the Bills aren't the sexiest team in the NFL and why many possibly are finding it hard to buy into them this season, but allow me to count the ways you should, especially in Week 1. The Bills' defense allowed opponents to score on less than 25% of their offensive possession last season and come into 2020 with a top-5 defense and arguably the best secondary in the league. Week 1 they face a Jets offense that has a subpar offensive line, an injured wide receiving corps and a running back, Le'Veon Bell, who doesn't seem to connect with head coach Adam Gase. Offensively, the Bills added wide receiver Stefon Diggs in free agency and running back Zack Moss in the draft to help Josh Allen elevate in his third season. I'm shocked this line isn't at 7.5, but it might be at kick off, so grab it now!
Pick: Bills -6.5.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 48) at Carolina Panthers
Schatz: We have the Panthers with the worst defensive projection in the league this season. They return just three starters on defense in a lineup that might include four rookies depending on what happens with safety Jeremy Chinn. (The other three: defensive tackle Derrick Brown, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos and cornerback Troy Pride Jr.) Meanwhile, the Panthers' offense should be improved with Teddy Bridgewater now at quarterback running Joe Brady's system that was so successful for LSU last season. On the other side, the Raiders' offense was underrated last season, and Derek Carr finished the year eighth in passing DVOA and 10th in QBR. It's a recipe for two teams to score a lot of points in this game.
Pick: Over 48
Kezirian: After being on the opposite of Aaron in our NFL season picks, I feel much better about lining up with him here. The Raiders are respectable on offense. In 2019, they ranked in the top 10 in yards per play and yards per pass attempt. They did have trouble finding the end zone at times, but I am not too worried against this Carolina defense that returns only three starters, as Aaron indicated. Teddy Bridgewater is a giant upgrade for this offense. I expect a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 48
Fortenbaugh: Believe it or not, the Raiders ranked 11th in total offense last season and added Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs III to the unit, which also should benefit greatly from the return of a healthy Josh Jacobs, who missed three games as a rookie due to injury. Against a Carolina club that ranked 31st in scoring defense last season (29.4 PPG) and said goodbye to seven-time Pro Bowl linebacker Luke Kuechly this past winter (retirement), I'm not concerned about the silver and black's chances when it comes to scoring points in Week 1.
New Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has a big project in front of him, but he should be able to move the ball with quarterback Bridgewater (67.9% completions in 2019), all-purpose phenom Christian McCaffrey (2,392 total yards in 2019) and newly-acquired receiver Robby Anderson at his disposal. After all, Las Vegas ranked an uninspiring 24th in total defense last year.
Pick: Over 48
Johnson: Let's round this out with the quadfecta. The Raiders' offense was sneaky efficient a year ago, and the Panthers adding Joe Brady to the mix after his success at LSU was brilliant for an offense loaded with weapons. These two offenses face two of the worst defenses in the NFL to start the 2020 season, so I have no issue going over at 48 or better with my projection sitting 50.5.
Pick: Over 48
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 48.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Schatz: This feels like a strange pick because I'm higher on the Seahawks than most analytics people this preseason. But I'm also higher on the Falcons than most other observers. Atlanta should once again have a top-10 offense, and Matt Ryan is one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the game. The Falcons' defense should be improved as last year's low turnover totals regress a bit to the mean. In fact, we project the Falcons' defense to be a little better than the Seattle defense, despite the Seahawks' addition of Jamal Adams. If home-field advantage still means anything -- although who knows yet if it does in this weird 2020 season -- it's Atlanta that should be narrowly favored here.
Pick: Falcons +1.5.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5) at Washington
Marks: The Eagles own Washington (5-1 ATS in their past six matchups). Full transparency, I have concerns in regard to the Eagles' offensive line injuries, but considering they open the season against Washington, not so much. Opponents scored on more than 60% of their possessions against Washington last season, and with the arsenal of talent Carson Wentz is working with this season, I expect a lot of points for the birds on Sunday.
Last season, Wentz faced a top-5 schedule against pass defenses with a "farm team" of talent and still took his team to the playoffs. Week 1 he has a healthy DeSean Jackson and both tight ends (Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert) ready to roll. Defensively, the Eagles added both Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman to the mix in free agency, which will give Dwayne Haskins Jr. and Terry McLaurin a tough Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Eagles -6
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 44.5)
Schatz: Do you remember how good the Lions' passing game was in the first half of last year? New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell had Matthew Stafford throwing deep more often, and the Lions ranked fourth in passing DVOA through the first half of the season. Then Stafford got hurt and the Lions' passing game ranked 26th the rest of the way. I think the Lions are more likely to be closer to that first team with Stafford back, not that second team. Either Marvin Jones Jr. or Kenny Golladay is going to be matched up with a rookie in his first NFL game, Jaylon Johnson. On the other side of the ball, the Lions' defense should be improved with some strong free-agent additions and third-overall pick Jeff Okudah, but hey, it's his first NFL game, too. It's not going to be improved enough to keep me away from playing an over here.
Pick: Over 44.5
Walder: Here's my favorite stat about the Bevell offense: Last season, Detroit route runners (regardless of target) were, on average, 8.8 yards downfield three seconds after the snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which was the highest mark in the league. The point: Bevell's sending 'em deep. And, as Aaron noted above, that offense worked wonders with Stafford while he was healthy last year. I like the over.
Our analytics team has a model we call FPI+, which is based on a lot of the same as information traditional FPI but incorporates the market and is designed for betting. It's a bit of a black box -- it's a brute force machine learning model that incorporates factors such as offensive and defensive strength, the advantage at quarterback, weather and more -- so it's a little tricky to tell what it sees in Chicago. But it does know Mitchell Trubisky is starting for the Bears and likes them nonetheless.
Pick: Over 44.5, Bears +3
Indianapolis Colts (-8, 45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fortenbaugh: The Colts didn't sign Philip Rivers with the intent of asking him to throw the football 40 times per game. Indy ranked fourth in rushing attempts last season and wants to pound the rock with Marlon Mack and rookie Jonathan Taylor. On the other side of the ball, the Colts ranked 16th in total defense last season, a position that should experience dramatic improvement in 2020 thanks, in part, to the acquisitions of DT DeForest Buckner and CB Xavier Rhodes. Outside of DJ Chark Jr., what else is Jacksonville bringing to the table in addition to its Trevor Lawrence desires?
Pick: Under 45.5.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 45)
Fortenbaugh: The Packers were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last season. How else do you justify a 13-3 campaign that featured a +63 point differential and an 8-1 record in one-score games? I'll spare you the details, but those two metrics are highly unsustainable and point to a regression for Aaron Rodgers and company in 2020. Speaking of Rodgers, he's now 36 years old and is coming off a season in which he produced his second-worst QB rating of the past 11 years and second-worst completion percentage of the past 12 years. The Vikings ranked fifth in scoring defense last season and recently added Pro Bowl pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue, which should take some sting out of Danielle Hunter's injury. I'm surprised the Vikings aren't laying the full three points here.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
4 p.m. ET games
Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 43.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Marks: Many questions surround this matchup heading into Week 1. The Chargers are starting the season with quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who didn't have a lot of success working with head coach Anthony Lynn when he was the offensive coordinator in Buffalo, and he'll be without a full arsenal (WR Mike Williams has a shoulder injury). The Bengals improved their defense in free agency and now have a solid group of QB chasers, as well as an improved secondary. Meanwhile, is it fair rookie quarterback Joe Burrow begins his Queen City legacy against Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa? Welcome to the NFL! I don't expect a lot of points to be scored in this matchup.
Pick: Under 43.5
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 47)
Kezirian: As long as Kliff Kinsbury has learned the dangers of kicking short field goals, I expect both teams to contribute to this over. Kyler Murray experienced modest success against San Francisco last year, throwing four touchdown passes without an interception in the two meetings. His mobility will allow the Cardinals to get some points, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Plus, the Arizona defense allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to carve them up for eight TD passes and nearly 750 yards. I realize the 49ers have had some offensive injuries, but I fully expect Kyle Shanahan to have an excellent game plan in place.
Pick: Over 47
Bearman: 28-25. 30-26 (not counting the last-play shenanigans). Those were the two scores of the matchups between the five-win Cardinals and NFC Champion 49ers last season. Murray and Arizona took the Niners to the whistle in both matchups as Murray threw for two TDs in each game and the Cardinals rushed for an average of 144 yards per game. The year before? Without Murray or coach Kingsbury, two of the Cardinals' three wins on the year ... yes, they came vs. the Niners. In fact, Arizona had won eight straight against San Fran before the two close losses last year, covering in seven of the 10 games.
The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, with only three teams winning it all the year after losing in the big game. Our ESPN Stats and Information department shared that over the past 20 seasons, the Super Bowl loser is 4-16 ATS in its first game the next season (note: covered last two seasons). The Niners will be fine and likely playoff-bound again, but I am a big fan of what Arizona has cooking, especially on offense. Big leaps in Year 2 of Murray/Kingsbury starts with a cover in week 1.
Pick: Cardinals +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 48)
Fulghum: When Tom Brady and Drew Brees square off at the Superdome, it will mark the first time in NFL history that two 40-year-old starting QBs match up in a game. And most expect a shootout when two of the greatest QBs to ever play share the same field, but will it be?
I don't think so.
Let's start with the fact that Tampa Bay might be without Mike Evans. That's a big blow. If he's out, that allows New Orleans to slide Marshon Lattimore over to Chris Godwin. Asking Scotty Miller and Rob Gronkowski (who hasn't played in a game since Super Bowl LIII) to soak up those targets and match Evans' efficiency is a tall order.
Plus, the Saints' defense returns 10 of 11 starters from a unit that was third in the NFL in sacks last season (51) and fifth in hits on the quarterback (110). Brady is playing his first game in a new offense, with new teammates, all at the ripe old age of 43. Sorry, I'm going to temper my expectations for this new-look Bucs offense in Week 1.
On the other side, Brees and Alvin Kamara will be dealing with an equally formidable defense. Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh form a 700-plus pound foundation up front for a defense that ranked first in QB hits last season (117) and Football Outsiders' Run Defense DVOA vs. the run.
I think the defenses will walk away feeling like they put on the show.
Pick: Under 48
8:20 p.m. ET game
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 51.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Fulghum: The total in this game just seems too low for a prime-time matchup featuring what should be two of the better offenses in the NFL. In the Jared Goff/Dak Prescott era (since the 2016 NFL draft), these teams have played each other three times in the regular season and playoffs and have produced the following point totals: 65, 52, 65.
We should see both of these QBs air the ball out a bunch. When Mike McCarthy was last on the sideline in 2018, the Packers were dropping back to pass on 72% of plays called. In 2019, Goff led the NFL in total pass attempts with 626 under Sean McVay.
The Cowboys upgraded their skill position personnel and made the offense even more explosive with the addition of CeeDee Lamb in the 2020 NFL draft and finally letting Blake Jarwin take over at tight end for Jason Witten.
The Rams added RB Cam Akers and WR Van Jefferson in the draft to make up for the loss of Todd Gurley II and Brandin Cooks. Gurley and Cooks are veterans with proven track records in the NFL, but injuries have taken their toll on each player despite their relatively young ages. Akers and Jefferson very well could be more effective in L.A. than either veteran was a season ago.
Finally, the biggest difference between "normal" football and what we see in 2020 will be the lack of fans in the stadiums. Road teams with elite QBs will benefit from this greatly, in my estimation. Communication with the sideline during the play clock and with the line of scrimmage while making checks won't be difficult at all. In fact, Goff may benefit from this more than Prescott in this particular matchup because it's very possible that if fans were allowed to fill up the brand new SoFi Stadium on Sunday night, Cowboys fans would have made up the majority.
Pick: Over 51.5.
Fortenbaugh: It feels like people have forgotten all about McVay and the Rams, but a 9-7 record the year after a Super Bowl defeat is nothing to scoff at. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey anchor a unit that concluded the 2019 campaign ranked 13th in total defense, and McVay and quarterback Jared Goff have a bevy of weapons at their disposal on offense, including rookies Jefferson (WR) and Akers (RB). Dallas is loaded, but the transition from Jason Garrett to McCarthy could take some time, which is why this game should be lined closer to a pick 'em. Sunday Night Football with a home underdog opening up a new stadium? I'll take those points all day long.
Pick: Rams +3
Marks: I love getting a home 'dog here! I'm placing a lot of value on continuity this NFL season -- the Rams have it, the Cowboys do not. Dallas has a new head coach in Mike McCarthy and a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan. Changes are difficult to begin with, let alone in a COVID-19 preseason with zero preseason games to help work out the kinks. The Cowboys have to travel out west in Week 1 with a new list of travel protocols that won't help either.
As for the Rams, I'm expecting a big season from Goff in 2020, starting this week with a healthy wide receiving corps and tight end Tyler Higbee, who finished last season on fire with over 500 yards and two touchdowns in his last five games. On defense, Rasey has had his way with Amari Cooper in the two games they have faced off, and I'm counting on Donald to help contain Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
Pick: Rams +3
Johnson: The Rams feel like a forgotten team. I understand they play in an NFC West division with two elite teams in San Francisco and Seattle and the sexy sleeper in Arizona. The Rams might not look as good on paper as when they made their Super Bowl run in 2018, but they shouldn't be valued as a below-average NFL team either. I trust McVay and Goff in this unique season more than I do Year 2 of Murray and Kingsbury. Yet, to put it in context, the markets are valuing the teams similarly (Rams +500 to win the West and Cardinals +600).
I feel like I have been as bullish on the Cowboys as anybody this offseason, and it's true the offense will be no joke. McCarthy is going to be an upgrade over Jason Garrett, and I love that they kept Moore on as offensive coordinator after Prescott's explosion through the air in 2019. I've gone on record with Dallas over 9.5 wins this year and bet it myself. However, this team shouldn't be laying three points on the road to the Rams. The hype is overblown, the Rams are getting disrespected or likely a combination of both. My projection is Cowboys -1.6, so with this moving to +3 it warrants a buy on Los Angeles.
Pick: Rams +3 and over 51.5