Welcome to 2020 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick a winner each week, and don't use the same team twice. If you win all 17 weeks (or outlast your group members), you win. You can find all the rules here.
This article will look at the top Eliminator options each week, using betting lines, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), trends, future schedules and anything else that will help determine the best picks. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
You can't map out the whole season in advance because teams you thought would be good might not be so good, and teams you thought would stink could surprise (OK, the Jaguars probably won't surprise). It's tough to use one of the teams you hoped to save for later in the season, but the name of the game is survive and advance, so you have to get through Week 1 first.
With that in mind, here are the top picks for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Top picks
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
The first game of the season is the biggest spread of the week. In a battle of the second and third quarterbacks taken in the 2017 draft (Mitchell Trubisky was the first taken, remember?), the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes host Deshaun Watson and the Texans. The Chiefs were the fifth-highest scoring team (28.2 PPG) last season, and the Texans were in the middle of the pack (23.6 PPG). Watson, however, no longer has his top target to throw to, as DeAndre Hopkins was traded in the offseason to Arizona. FPI has the Chiefs winning by 10.7 points. The most recent time these teams met, in last season's divisional round, the Chiefs spotted the Texans a 24-0 lead -- and won by 20 points (51-31). Although home-field advantage won't be the same, Kansas City should be a strong pick to get you to Week 2. Don't let it scare you off, but of note: The underdog has won the past four Thursday Week 1 games outright.
Line: Chiefs -9
FPI favorite: Chiefs 77%
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
This game is tied for the second-highest spread in Week 1 -- for good reason. The Ravens are among the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. They went 14-2 during the regular season in 2019, but one of those losses actually came to the Browns in Week 4. Then Lamar Jackson went on his MVP run. Cleveland went into last season with high hopes but finished a disappointing 6-10. The Ravens averaged more than 200 yards per game rushing and put up a league-high 33.2 points per game. The Browns, meanwhile, floundered to 20.9 PPG (22nd in the NFL), and only Washington and Cincinnati allowed more rushing yards. That's good news for those on the Ravens. These teams have split their series each of the past two seasons. Don't expect that to happen again. Cleveland is 0-14-1 outright in its past 15 Week 1 games.
Line: Ravens -8
FPI favorite: Ravens 70.3
Eliminator Challenge: 13% selected
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
There are some new faces in Indianapolis, most notably Philip Rivers at quarterback. Playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, the Colts should move to 1-0. Jacksonville is expected to be among the worst teams in the league. Only one game separated these teams in the standings last season (7-9 Colts, 6-10 Jags), but they seem to be trending in opposite directions. The Colts are beefing up the roster, and Jacksonville traded away Leonard Fournette two weeks before the start of the season. There is risk, of course. These teams split last season, but the benefit of picking the Colts is it allows you to save some of the truly elite teams for later in the season. These are different teams now, but this could scare some off: Jacksonville is 6-4 against Indianapolis since 2015, and Indy is 2-10 in Week 1 the past 12 seasons.
Line: Colts -8
FPI favorite: Colts 66%
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected
Others to consider: Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins, Eagles (-6) at Washington, 49ers (-7) vs. Cardinals