The 2020 NFL season is rather suddenly approaching, and we're here with betting previews for all 32 teams.
ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Joe Fortenbaugh, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and our friends from Football Outsiders (Aaron Schatz and Scott Spratt) combine to offer their best bets for each team, from win totals to championship odds to props and much more.
Note: All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds as of Aug. 24.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE
NO | NYG | NYJ | LV | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC East
Anita Marks expects the Patriots to have a down season after seeing multiple key players opt out of the 2020 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills (25-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 28-1)
Odds to win AFC: 10-1
Division: +100
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -175, No +155
Bills under 9 wins (-105)
Johnson: Buffalo traded for Stefon Diggs and Tom Brady took his talents to Tampa Bay, and now it seems the whole world loves the Bills in 2020. I'm not in that camp. They shift from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last season to one of the toughest (they face the AFC West and NFC West out of the division). They missed the fourth-fewest starts as a team in 2019, and when adjusting for the actual quality of those missed starts, the Bills were the healthiest team in the NFL by a fairly big margin last season.
All things point to regression from a health perspective as well as a few other luck factors, such as fumbles lost per game (they fumbled 1.5 times per game on average last season yet lost only 0.5 per game; the stat tends to regress toward 50-50, historically).
With actual expectations set for quarterback Josh Allen now against a much more difficult schedule, I'm not sure I can give him my trust. The 2019 version of Buffalo has a lot of 2017 Jaguars and 2018 Bears in it, and this isn't a good thing looking toward the 2020 season.
Bills over 9 wins (-115), Yes to make playoffs (-175) and to win division (+100)
Marks: The Bills got better this offseason with the additions of wide receiver Stefon Diggs in free agency and running back Zack Moss in the draft. The running game, with Moss and Devin Singletary, has a lot of promise considering the Bills have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, with all five starters back. Buffalo also improved its defensive line with Mario Addison, Vernon Butler, Quinton Jefferson and AJ Epenesa. Beside a frightening D-line led by Ed Oliver, their secondary features one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Tre'Davious White and arguably the best safety tandem in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. With Tom Brady's departure from the division, this is the season the Bills can reclaim the AFC East.
Miami Dolphins (100-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 40-1
Division: +850
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +450, No -600
Dolphins over 6 wins (-115)
Bearman: With the 0-7 start, all the "Tank for Tua" nonsense and the trading of multiple former first-round picks, it's easy to forget the Dolphins and coach Brian Flores went 5-4 down the stretch last season with wins at Indianapolis, at New England and at home vs. the eventual NFC East champion Eagles. They then drafted their quarterback of the future in Tua Tagovailoa, used the salary capital to sign defensive back Byron Jones, linebacker Kyle Van Noy and running back Jordan Howard and used the draft picks to shore up both sides of the line.
I'm not predicting playoffs here, but a one-game improvement off last season gets you a push and two-game improvement gets you seven wins and a paid ticket. The schedule is tougher than 2019, especially out of the gate with four 2019 playoff teams as opponents in the first five games. So don't expect this bet to look great after a 1-4 or 2-3 start. However, the Fins have winnable games vs. the Jaguars, Cardinals, Bengals, Jets (twice) and Raiders and home games vs. both Los Angeles teams. Did you know Tom Brady is no longer in New England, a team the Dolphins have beaten at least once in six of the past seven seasons, even with Tom Terrific suiting up? Looking for seven wins here, and it's worth a bite.
New England Patriots (20-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 9-1
Division: +135
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -175, No +155
Patriots under 8.5 wins (+100), No to make playoffs (+155)
Marks: Up until Jarrett Stidham got injured, I was the only person on the planet expecting him to start Week 1. In fact, I placed a bet that he would start the opener, at +350. I'm not saying Stidham is a better quarterback than Cam Newton, but Stidham's familiarity with the Patriots' offense -- especially in such a weird preseason -- is important. Now it looks as though Newton will be the starter, which I think hurts the Pats -- especially at the start. Newton is not working with much: 34-year-old Julian Edelman, 31-year-old Mohamed Sanu, plus a bunch of unproven receivers. Defensively, the Pats have lost Dont'a Hightower and Patrick Chung as opt-outs, Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy. Their schedule will not be a cakewalk, like last season when the Pats' defense faced a bunch of poor teams with backup quarterbacks. I anticipate the Bills will dominate the AFC East, and the Dolphins will be more competitive as well.
New York Jets (100-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 50-1)
Odds to win AFC: 40-1
Division: +900
Over/under: 6.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +370, No -460
Jamison Crowder over 825.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Marks: Crowder led the Jets in receptions, touchdowns and receiving yards (833) last season, even with quarterback Sam Darnold out for several games. This season I'm expecting a healthy Darnold, playing behind an improved offensive line. And with Robby Anderson gone, that means more targets for Crowder.
AFC North
Preston Johnson gives advice for betting on Baker Mayfield and his 23.5 projected touchdown passes this season.
Baltimore Ravens (7-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 8-1)
Odds to win AFC: 3-1
Division: -300
Over/under: 11.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -900, No +600
Ravens over 11.5 wins (-105), to win AFC (3-1) and to win Super Bowl (7-1)
Marks: The stars have lined up so well for the Ravens this season. NFL teams with continuity will benefit during the pandemic, and the Ravens have that -- returning 21 of 22 starters, plus few coaching changes. They also have one of the easiest schedules, especially in terms of opposing defenses, who will have a difficult time slowing down quarterback Lamar Jackson & Co. Baltimore also travels the fewest miles this season and will play only one game outside the Eastern time zone (Week 2 at Houston). The Ravens' toughest regular-season game is in Week 3 against the Chiefs -- if they win, they have a great chance of locking down the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I even like the Ravens at 25-1 (at DraftKings) to go 16-0, and at 5-1 to have the most regular-season wins in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals (100-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 45-1
Division: 35-1
Over/under: 5.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +650, No -1000
Joe Mixon over 5.5 rush TDs (-120) and over 1,079.5 rush yards (-110)
Clay: I'm not a huge fan of "overs," especially when it comes to a fragile position like running back, but Mixon's lines are too low to ignore. The 24-year-old has ranked in the top nine in carries, rushing yards, opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) and carries inside the 5-yard line each of the past two seasons. He ran for eight TDs in 2019, and though he managed only five in 2019, he posted an 8.5 OTD. He has rushed for at least 1,137 yards each of the past two seasons.
Mixon's supporting cast isn't great, but it's better than it was in 2019, which will help improve offensive efficiency and game scripts. Last season, eight of the 14 rushing yardage props we examined hit the over, and it won't be a surprise if Mixon hits in 2020 as Cincinnati's clear feature back. His projection checks in at 1,134 rushing yards and 6.4 rushing TDs.
Johnson: I'm with Mike here 100 percent. I have even drafted Mixon in all four of my fantasy football leagues to this point. The Bengals' offense projects to be among the most improved in the NFL. The additions of quarterback Joe Burrow, offensive tackle Jonah Williams and wide receiver Tee Higgins and the return of A.J. Green will help provide plenty of scoring opportunities -- at the very least, that will be in a similar vicinity to the 8.5 OTD Mixon tallied up last season. My projections for Mixon come in slightly higher than Mike's, at 1,166 rushing yards and 6.5 rushing TDs.
Cleveland Browns (35-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 40-1)
Odds to win AFC: 18-1
Division: +450
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +105, No -125
Baker Mayfield under 3,849.5 pass yards (-110)
Clay: Mayfield handled 98.9% of the Browns' dropbacks last season. Why is that notable? Consider that only 13 quarterbacks reached 95% last season in what was a fairly decent year as QB health goes (Week 1 starters generally average around 13 games played). Mayfield ranked 10th in pass attempts and averaged a solid 7.2 yards per attempt, but he still fell short of his current 2020 line of 3,849.5 (he threw for 3,827 yards). He'll now be leading a run-heavy Kevin Stefanski offense that led to Kirk Cousins ranking 24th in pass attempts while barely clearing 3,600 yards despite a very efficient 2019 campaign. Assuming 89% of the dropbacks (a mark that includes some risk that Case Keenum could make a start), Mayfield's projection checks in well below this line at 3,454 yards.
Mayfield over 3,849.5 pass yards (-110) and over 23.5 TD passes (-110)
Marks: Mayfield faced a very difficult schedule in terms of opposing pass defenses last season. This season's schedule is easier, plus the Browns hired a head coach, Kevin Stefanski, who will call the offense and implement a lot of what Mayfield does well, which is play-action. The offensive line was improved in free agency and the draft, and he has a lot of talented players to throw to.
Pittsburgh Steelers (25-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 28-1)
Odds to win AFC: 9-1
Division: +475
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -135, No +115
Steelers to win division (+475)
Schatz: People know that quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were bad last season in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger, but I don't know if they realize how bad. The Steelers ranked dead last in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA ratings after ranking No. 6 the year before. So the Steelers don't need Roethlisberger to be as good as he was in 2018 in order to be competitive this season. They just need Roethlisberger to be average, and that alone would be a huge step forward.
If Roethlisberger is better than that, and the defense continues to play well -- they ranked third in DVOA last year -- the Steelers can make it to double-digit wins and challenge Baltimore for a division title. The Ravens are easily the favorite to win the AFC North, but they took it only 50% of the time in Football Outsiders' latest simulations. The Steelers took home the division title in 30% of simulations, which makes +475 great odds.
AFC South
Houston Texans (55-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 50-1)
Odds to win AFC: 25-1
Division: +340
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +140, No -160
Will Fuller most receiving yards (65-1)
Johnson: Quarterback Deshaun Watson recently told ESPN's Sarah Barshop: "Will's going to ball out. Will's going to be one of the best receivers in the league." I was already extraordinarily bullish on Fuller this season, but my, oh my, this has me salivating at this prop I have seen priced as high as 80-1.
The Watson-to-Fuller connection is no joke. The opportunity is obviously waiting on a silver platter for Fuller now that DeAndre Hopkins is in Arizona, but I don't think people realize how often Watson relied on Hopkins, and that the true ceiling for Fuller is similar. In 2018, for example, Hopkins finished second in the NFL with 1,572 receiving yards, trailing only Julio Jones. Anything in that vicinity is going to put a receiver in the mix. Hopkins averaged 13.7 yards per reception that season, and Fuller is averaging 14.3 yards per reception for his career. So not only will the opportunity be there for Fuller in Hopkins' place, but combined with similar efficiency metrics we have already seen Watson sling it around the field to the tune of near-league-leading yardage.
While the Texans as a team finished 10-6 in the 2019 regular season, they still finished with a negative point differential. That points to some late-game luck that benefited Houston, and a few more games in 2020 that could see the Texans playing from behind. This is great news for Fuller. Health will always be a concern, but in the seasons we do get 16 games out of Fuller, the 65-1 and 80-1 prices are just way too extreme.
Indianapolis Colts (25-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 11-1
Division: +130
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -170, No +150
Yes (-170) to make playoffs
Fortenbaugh: A price of -170 implies that I need to win this bet 62.9% of the time in order to break even. Of the 16 teams in the AFC competing for seven playoff spots this season, I'm willing to eliminate the Jets, Dolphins, Bengals and Jaguars from contention before 2020 gets underway, with the Raiders, Broncos and Texans serving as three additional clubs I believe have little chance of winning more games than Indianapolis. Eliminate the seven aforementioned franchises and we're left with a scenario in which the Colts are challenging eight other squads for seven postseason berths. I like those odds.
Indy plays six games against teams that combined to post an abysmal 25-54-1 mark last season (Jaguars twice, Jets, Bengals, Lions, Raiders). The schedule also includes very winnable matchups against Chicago, Cleveland, Houston (twice) and Tennessee (twice).
I'm a huge fan of Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard and his ability to scout talent. While with the Chiefs, Ballard played a role in Kansas City's acquisition of Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill, Eric Fisher and Travis Kelce, all of whom made big contributions to last season's Super Bowl run. So far during his short stint in Indianapolis, Ballard has built a bully in the trenches, headlined by this offseason's trade for Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. Don't be surprised if Indianapolis turns into this season's version of the 2019 San Francisco 49ers, led by a defense that seemingly comes out of nowhere.
Colts over 9 wins (-130) and Yes (-170) to make playoffs
Bearman: I had the Colts as a dark-horse playoff contender last season and might have been one season early. They did start out 5-2 before losing four of the next six games by four points or less, leading to a disappointing 7-9 finish in a wide-open division.
Ballard added an All-Pro in Buckner (trade with San Francisco) and QB Philip Rivers (free agency) to a team that is ready to challenge the Titans and fading Texans in the AFC South. The schedule is very manageable early, with the Jags, Jets, Bengals, Browns and Bears, as well as a home date with the Vikings, before a Week 7 bye. Add the second Jaguars game, Raiders and Lions to the schedule and you can find a path to nine or 10 wins without even mentioning divisional battles with Texans and Titans.
Joe did the math above on making the playoffs and that matches up with my view on the Colts this season. Take the over 9 and playoffs at -170. While I do not think they are beating the Chiefs or Ravens in the postseason, they likely would need to beat only one to be able to hedge an 11-1 shot on winning the AFC.
Colts to win division (+130)
Johnson: In 2018, before Andrew Luck's sudden retirement, the Colts won 10 games and a road wild-card matchup over the Texans. More impressive was Frank Reich getting seven wins on the fly without Luck in 2019 with Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer under center. Reich is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL, and acquiring a competent veteran quarterback in Philip Rivers certainly warrants a look on Indy in the division.
The Colts bolstered their defense with the acquisition of Buckner and project to have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Rivers also goes from playing behind one of the worst offensive lines to one of the best. On top of that, he previously spent three years with Reich and five years with Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. He's extremely familiar with the playbook despite the unique offseason that could hinder otherwise new faces in new situations. This bodes well for what I expect to be a bounce-back season from wide receiver T.Y. Hilton as well, where I also made an investment on his over 5.5 touchdowns (he scored five last season in 10 games, and I project six or more nearly 60% of the time this season).
I'm bullish on the Colts, and every other team in the AFC South looks to take a step back. At +130 we need to win this proposition only 43.5% of the time to break even. I have the Colts taking it down 45.5%.
Jacksonville Jaguars (250-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 100-1
Division: 20-1
Over/under: 4.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +700, No -1100
Jaguars over 4.5 wins (-130)
Schatz: Tanking in the NFL is hard. It's not enough to try to strip the roster of talent. Your players are going to try to win games. It's not in their best interest to play badly and put losing reps on film. Your head coach is probably going to try to win games, too, or else he's not going to be your head coach when the tank is done.
Tanking is the main reason to suspect that the Jaguars will be the worst team in the NFL. Otherwise, Football Outsiders projections point to Jacksonville as a run-of-the-mill bad team, not the clear worst team in the league. Last season, for example, the Jaguars ranked 24th in offensive DVOA. With quarterback Gardner Minshew in his second season -- the season when young quarterbacks are most likely to see improvement -- why should we expect their offense to suddenly be the worst in the league in 2020? The defense has lost a lot of veteran talent, but there's also a lot of young talent here, including two first-round rookies and a blossoming pass-rusher in Josh Allen. The defense is likely to be below average, but not necessarily the worst in the league.
Add in the randomness that COVID-19 will bring to the league this season, which will likely cluster teams closer together around 8-8, and the Jaguars have a better chance to win five or six games, not three or four.
Tennessee Titans (30-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 13-1
Division: +140
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -140, No +120
Derrick Henry over 1,279.5 rushing yards (-110)
Spratt: This seems like a question of health, and I'm optimistic Henry can stay healthy this season. Despite being a four-year veteran and leading the NFL with 303 carries last season, Henry has taken a relatively low career volume of NFL touches because of a workload split with DeMarco Murray in his first two seasons (2016-17). Meanwhile, Henry's regular-season total of carries in 2019 was well short of the historically dangerous benchmark of 370 carries, which backs no longer threaten in modern offenses.
AFC West
Doug Kezirian explains why he likes the over for Dak Prescott's passing yards total of 4,279.5.
Denver Broncos (50-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 10-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +185, No -220
Yes (+185) to make playoffs
Kezirian: I faded and criticized quarterback Drew Lock often at Missouri, but he seems to be a good fit in Denver. After starting 0-4 last season, the Broncos eventually punted on Joe Flacco, and Lock posted a 4-1 mark as a starter to close the season.
Denver added an impact wide receiver in Jerry Jeudy, and this team should be a sneaky candidate to make the playoffs. We all know the mile-high altitude and strong defense give the Broncos a home edge, and now coach Vic Fangio has a full season under his belt.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 2-1
Division: -425
Over/under: 12
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -1100, No +700
Travis Kelce over 7.5 total TDs (-110)
Clay: Kelce scored eight touchdowns in 2017 and 10 in 2018 before taking a dive back to six in 2019. The drop might seem like a concern, but it shouldn't be. Kelce posted a 7.9 OTD (highest among tight ends) and handled nine end zone targets (fourth most in the NFL) last season. Both of those numbers fell between where he was the previous two seasons.
Kelce hasn't finished lower than second among tight ends in snaps, routes, targets receptions or yardage since 2016, and he remains Patrick Mahomes' top target in one of the league's highest-scoring and pass-heaviest offenses. The 30-year-old's TD projection checks in at 9.3, which makes him one of the top values on the board.
Mahomes under 35.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
Spratt: In 2018, Mahomes accounted for 75.8% of the Chiefs' total offensive touchdowns with his passes. In coach Andy Reid's other six seasons with the franchise, his quarterbacks have passed for between 50.0% and 68.4% of the team's offensive touchdowns. That includes 65.2% last season with Mahomes as the primary passer, when even Mahomes' full-season passing touchdown pace was just 29.7.
Los Angeles Chargers (45-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +160, No -180
Chargers under 8 wins (-105)
Clay: The Chargers are a popular pick to bounce back this season following an unlucky 2019 campaign in which nine of their 11 losses were by one possession. Of course, those losses came with star quarterback Philip Rivers on the roster. Los Angeles will now be turning to a combination of Tyrod Taylor, who hasn't started a game since Week 3 of the 2018 season, and raw rookie Justin Herbert. Led by Joey Bosa, Casey Hayward Jr. and Derwin James, Los Angeles' defense remains one of the league's best, but on paper the offense ranks among the league's shakiest. The line is weak, the skill positions severely lack depth and QB is obviously a major question mark. The Chargers' schedule ranks as sixth easiest by my metrics, which helps their cause. But they're an extreme long shot to catch the Chiefs for the division title, and the Broncos and Raiders are both improved from 2019.
Las Vegas Raiders (30-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 13-1
Division: 10-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +200, No -240
Josh Jacobs over 1,110.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Marks: Jacobs had a fantastic rookie season last year, rushing for over 1,300 yards in just 13 games. If he hadn't suffered a shoulder injury, I believe he would have been named Rookie of the Year. Jacobs will once again be Jon Gruden's featured back, and he should benefit from an improved offensive line, a better wide receiving corps to keep defenses from stacking the box and a shiny new stadium to strut his stuff in. Jacobs' volume accounted for almost 70% of the Raiders' rushing attempts last season, and I'm anticipating a repeat performance this year.
NFC East
Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down why the Packers are a prime candidate to regress this season.
Dallas Cowboys (13-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 11-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: -120
Over/under: 10
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -250, No +210
Ezekiel Elliott under 1,332.5 rushing yards (-110)
Johnson: Dallas intrigues me as a team, but I'm not so sure that Elliott is the biggest beneficiary. To some degree, this prop bet looks fairly straightforward: The seasons that Elliott has played at least 15 games, he has gone over this rushing yards total. The season he played in only 10 games, he didn't. This might ultimately just be a "will Zeke play 14 or more games" bet.
But one thing to consider is that while Kellen Moore remains as offensive coordinator, coach Mike McCarthy brings an attack and mindset that saw his Packers teams throw on first down more than any other teams in the NFL. In his 13 seasons in Green Bay, the Packers never had a rusher go over Elliott's total. Elliott is likely a better running back than anyone McCarthy used in Green Bay, but at the very least, there has to be concern with Elliott even seeing 300-plus rushing attempts again. (He had at least 301 in the three seasons he played 15 or 16 games and went over this total.)
Considering Tony Pollard fell to Dallas in the draft's fourth round last year and had a good rookie campaign to earn more of a trusted role this time around, I have to look under on Elliott's rushing yards total.
New York Giants (50-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 60-1)
Odds to win NFC: 22-1
Division: +850
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +380, No -480
Saquon Barkley over 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-130)
Johnson: I think we can attribute Barkley's "down year" in 2019 -- scoring just six touchdowns -- to a combination of missing three games with an early injury, not being 100 percent healthy once he returned and Daniel Jones getting broken in under center after taking over for Eli Manning.
As a rookie in 2018, Barkley rushed for 11 touchdowns on a similar number of carries per game. He played in 16 games, which certainly helped, but the offensive line last season was one of the worst in the NFL. New York's front posted a stuffed rate last season of 20%. One out of every five rushing attempts for the Giants resulted in no gain or a loss. They addressed this concern by selecting Andrew Thomas with the No. 4 pick in the draft a few weeks after adding former Cowboys and Patriots offensive tackle Cameron Fleming.
Barkley is as electric as any player in the league, and he was hyped as the consensus No. 1 pick in 2019 fantasy drafts for a reason. Now, after a disappointing sophomore season, I think it has reversed to the point he is being undervalued entering 2020. He had only 35 red zone touches last season compared to 61 in 2018. Running backs last season who saw 59 or more red zone touches (Elliott, Christian McCaffrey and Todd Gurley) all scored 13 or 14 times. I expect Barkley's red zone touches to go up to a number similar to what we we saw in his rookie campaign, which would put him in line with a double-digit rushing-touchdown season rather than a repeat of 2019.
Philadelphia Eagles (20-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 22-1)
Odds to win NFC: 9-1
Division: +130
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -180, No +160
Yes to make playoffs (-180), most games won (16-1 at DraftKings)
Johnson: First and foremost, the Eagles and coach Doug Pederson have already surpassed expectations by making the playoffs in each of the past three seasons despite being completely decimated by injuries the past two years. Refresher: They won the Super Bowl in the other. Not only do the Eagles project to be healthier in 2020, but they improved defensively and added weapons for quarterback Carson Wentz, as well. And it'll be Year 2 for Miles Sanders in the backfield.
Pederson is the only returning head coach in the NFC East. After a unique offseason with a shortage of preparation and normalcy, preconceived continuity is going to be a major factor. Give me that, plus an early schedule that sets Philly up against just two teams in its first 10 contests that made the playoffs last season. Not only do I think the -180 price tag on making the playoffs is cheap (my true price is -222), but I think a 16-1 flyer on the Eagles to win the most games in the NFL this season is a worthwhile proposition, too.
Eagles over 9.5 wins (-105), to win division (+130) and to win NFC (9-1)
Marks: The football gods have not been kind to Philadelphia over the past two seasons, especially its receiving corps. Last season, the Eagles started over 15 practice-squad players and were still able to reach the playoffs having to start wide receivers Greg Ward and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. I'm banking on this season being different, with Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson healthy, plus a few speedy receivers they drafted who are now in the mix to complement tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. There's also a backfield with a lot of talent, starting with second-year running back Miles Sanders. And on defense, the Eagles' line has so much rotating talent, opposing quarterbacks are going to be under duress for all four quarters.
Washington (150-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win NFC: 60-1
Division: 22-1
Over/under: 5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +750, No -1200
Washington over 5 wins (-125)
Johnson: Last season, Washington won only three games, but based on points scored and points allowed, Pythagorean expected wins graded this club closer to a four-win team. Can Washington improve by one game in Year 2 of quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. under new coach Rob Rivera (should be an upgrade) and a roster stacked with youth? I'll also single out stud WR Terry McLaurin, likewise in his second season. Via Pro Football Focus last season, McLaurin graded out as the seventh-best wide receiver in the entire NFL. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner brings versatility and offers a modernized system that will suit their talent.
I think Washington is still a few years away from making any real noise, but at five wins in the current market, there's value over on a team that I project to finish 6-10 more often than any other result (and 5-11 still gets us a push).
Terry McLaurin over 995 receiving yards (-110)
Marks: McLaurin was Washington's silver lining last season, averaging a little over 15 yards per catch. Once again, he will be the team's shining star, with a year of chemistry with Haskins under his belt. Washington will be playing from behind often, so expect a lot of "garbage-time stats" for McLaurin and a huge target share.
NFC North
Doug Kezirian explains why he is all-in on the 49ers' chances of making the playoffs this season.
Chicago Bears (50-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 25-1)
Odds to win NFC: 20-1
Division: +325
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +155, No -175
Bears under 8 wins (-120)
Bearman: Back in April when win totals were first posted, I took one bet: Bears under 8.5. I wasn't the only one, as it's down to 8 at Caesars and is 7.5 to 8 at most books. I just don't see eight wins on the schedule, and I definitely don't see nine, so it's a push at worse at the current total. The Bears were 8-8 last season, had no first-round draft picks and had an offseason ranked 31st of 32 teams by ESPN's Bill Barnwell. The two biggest splashes were adding DE Robert Quinn and trading for QB Nick Foles to compete with incumbent Mitchell Trubisky. I don't see the winner of the Foles-Trubisky derby succeeding in an offense that ranked 29th in total yards last season, 29th in rush yards per play and dead last in pass yards per play.
Diving into the schedule, I will be nice and give a 3-3 division record, which likely is closer to 2-4. The Bears probably will go no better than 1-3 versus the NFC South, as the easiest game is on the road at Carolina. Giving Chicago 2-2 versus the AFC South and even with a split with the Giants/at Rams gets you to only seven wins -- and that's with a 3-3 divisional record.
Detroit Lions (60-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: 7-1
Over/under: 7
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +280, No -340
Lions to win division (7-1)
Schatz: A couple of weeks ago, I named the Lions as the team most likely to go from worst to first in 2020. The reasoning has more to do with the NFC North as a whole than with the Lions specifically. Green Bay's underlying performance last season did not match its 13-3 record, and the Packers didn't do much to fill holes in the offseason. Minnesota was hit by a number of major personnel losses, including wide receiver Stefon Diggs, defensive end Everson Griffen and most of its cornerbacks. Chicago looks to be about the same as it was a year ago: good defense, bad offense. That provides an opening for a Detroit team that was 3-4-1 in games started by Matthew Stafford before finishing 0-8 with two backup quarterbacks. The Detroit defense is also likely to improve, thanks to a number of important free-agent additions, plus No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah.
You don't have to agree with our simulation outcome that the Lions are (very narrowly) division favorites. Even if they have the lowest chance to win the NFC North, this division is going to be muddled enough to make 7-1 great odds for any team to win it.
Matthew Stafford over 4,100.5 passing yards (-110)
Marks: A healthy Stafford can easily surpass 4,100 passing yards. Last season, he was fourth in yards per passing play, averaging nearly 8.0, and was in the top 10 in passes thrown 20 yards or farther. Stafford likes to air it out, and he has a talented receiving corps to catch those passes with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and 2019 first-round tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Green Bay Packers (16-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win NFC: +750
Division: +170
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -135, No +115
Packers under 9 wins (-125)
Fortenbaugh: Last season, the Packers produced the NFL's second-best record at 13-3 despite concluding their campaign ranked ninth in scoring differential (plus-63). Throw in Green Bay's 8-1 record in one-score games (decided by 8 or fewer points) and plus-12 turnover differential (tied for third in the NFL) and you now have three integral factors pointing toward a regression in 2020. And that's before you consider Green Bay's brutal road schedule (Minnesota, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Houston, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Detroit and Chicago) and aging quarterback.
Don't get me wrong, Aaron Rodgers can still sling it. But the eight-time Pro Bowler is now 36 years old and coming off a season in which he produced his second-worst quarterback rating (95.4) of the past 11 years and second-worst completion rate (62%) of the past 12 years. I'm expecting a big step backward for the Packers this season.
Minnesota Vikings (28-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 30-1)
Odds to win NFC: 13-1
Division: +155
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -125, No +105
Yes (-125) to make playoffs
Kezirian: While we await official word on the exact number of fans permitted at each stadium (if any), we do know this season will unfold differently because of that. But how? I am predicting, or hoping, for an extremely positive impact on Kirk Cousins. The Vikings' signal-caller is an abysmal 7-15 straight up and 6-15-1 against the spread in prime-time games. Minnesota plays on the road once each on Sunday night and Monday night. I think he will benefit from the quieter environment for those two, as well as a game at New Orleans. The Vikings are the division's most talented team and now have every opportunity to execute accordingly. Plus, with each conference adding an extra wild-card team, I think it's more than a 56% likelihood that the Vikes reach the postseason (which is what -125 translates to).
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (60-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 55-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: +650
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +200, No -240
Falcons to win Super Bowl (60-1)
Schatz: This is one of my favorite long shot bets for the Super Bowl. Make no mistake, the Falcons are long shots, especially in that division with New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Nonetheless, this is a team that had been fairly consistent on offense until it fell off a bit last season and ranked just 15th in DVOA. The Falcons are likely to bump back into the top 10, where they were from 2016 to 2018. We're projecting a little bit of defensive improvement, as well.
With Atlanta's tough schedule, that probably makes for just an 8-8 or 9-7 team, but the high end of its range of possibilities would be a return to something like what we saw in 2016: one of the league's top offenses combined with an average defense. We have Atlanta ranked 13th in our Super Bowl odds, which should make for a line closer to +4000, not +6000.
Carolina Panthers (125-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 50-1
Division: 11-1
Over/under: 5.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +525, No -750
Christian McCaffrey under 1,249.5 rushing yards (-110) and under 9.5 rushing TDs (-110)
Clay: McCaffrey is entering his fourth NFL season after rushing for 1,098 yards during a breakout 2018 campaign, followed by 1,387 yards in 2019. Consider: Of the 35 running backs who reached 1,300 rushing yards in a single season from 2009 to 2018, only 12 reached 1,250 yards the following season. In the touchdown department, McCaffrey had 15 last season but posted a 10.8 OTD (expected total based on usage). From 2007 to 2018, 14 RBs had 15-plus rushing TDs in a season. That group averaged 6.1 the next season, and only five of the 14 reached double digits.
McCaffrey might seem like the logical exception to the rule, but there are plenty of reasons to think otherwise. McCaffrey required a massive 92% snap share in 2018 and 93% in 2019 just to hit the aforementioned marks. New coach Matt Rhule said McCaffrey won't be utilized nearly that often in his offense, which combined with his gigantic role as a receiver suggests he'll see a decrease from the 17.9 carries per game he handled last season. Even if the decrease were small, it's not logical to bet on a 16-game season from any running back, let alone a featured back like McCaffrey. The 24-year-old's 14-game projection comes in at 1,048 yards and 8.2 TDs on 233 carries. Hammer the unders.
Teddy Bridgewater over 3,300.5 passing yards (-110)
Spratt: Bridgewater should spearhead increased passing for the Panthers thanks to a conservative approach (6.2-yard aDOT) that will help reduce sacks and turnovers behind a bad pass-blocking line (8.6% adjusted sack rate in 2019, 29th). Meanwhile, new offensive coordinator Joe Brady seems like a playcaller who will push tempo and increase the team's pass-run ratio. As last season's coordinator with the national champion LSU Tigers, he increased Joe Burrow's volume of pass attempts from the season before by nearly 6 per game, and Burrow finished second in FBS with 527 attempts.
Johnson: I'm extremely bullish on the 2020 Panthers offense. Before the previous college football season, I said that Brady was the most important hire in the country. LSU snatched him up from the Saints to implement a modern passing game offense, and the Tigers turned it into a national championship and a Heisman Trophy for Burrow. We saw how innovative Brady can be when he has athleticism surrounding an accurate quarterback. Bridgewater is a perfect fit. He was one of just three quarterbacks to finish last season ranked in the top five in adjusted completion rate from a clean pocket as well as under pressure. He gets the ball out on time and on target, which is all a talented Brady offense needs.
Take a look at Bridgewater's weapons: McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel and Seth Roberts all have 4.4-second 40-yard dash speed. McCaffrey's ability to rush between the tackles hinders a defense's ability to use five- or six-DB sets to manage the cumulative speed at wide receiver. This team is going to be able to move the football, and the defense projects to be one of the worst in the league. Bridgewater and Carolina will be playing from behind often enough late in games and eating up yards through the air in fourth quarters.
I currently project Bridgewater to throw for 3,611 yards and play in 14.2 games, on average. That equates to 254 yards per game. For some added perspective, Kyle Allen threw for 256 yards per game last season without Brady calling the shots and with Anderson playing for the Jets. This line has been moving up since Caesars opened it, but I still think we have a window of value left at the current number.
Bridgewater more TD passes than Cam Newton (-134 at DraftKings) and more passing yards (-167 at DraftKings)
Marks: Bridgewater will be working with a much more talented supporting cast, including a running back in McCaffrey who is otherworldly -- especially as a pass-catching RB. I'm also considering how injury-prone Newton is; I'd be surprised if he starts all 16 games.
DJ Moore over 1,050.5 receiving yards (-110 at DK)
Marks: Moore put up 1,175 receiving yards last season and now he gets to work with a legit quarterback in Bridgewater, one of the most accurate in the league. Moore also will benefit from the addition of Anderson, who will open things up with his speed, so I expect an uptick in yards after the catch for Moore.
New Orleans Saints (13-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 14-1)
Odds to win NFC: +650
Division: -105
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -330, No +270
Saints to win Super Bowl (13-1)
Schatz: The Saints are projected to be the best team in the league according to the DVOA projections in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2020. New Orleans has the No. 2 projection on both offense and defense, and has a top-10 projection for special teams as well. The Saints are consistent, ranking in the top four in DVOA in each of the past three seasons. They filled their biggest hole this offseason, getting Emmanuel Sanders to play opposite Michael Thomas at wide receiver. And they are deep, from extra defensive backs to extra linebackers to the most important position, quarterback, with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill backing up Drew Brees. The Saints are uniquely built to withstand the inevitable wave of injuries that comes during an NFL season.
New Orleans has been knocked out of the playoffs three consecutive years in three very close games, but those losses don't make a championship this season any less likely. The history of the NFL is filled with teams that dominated the regular season, lost in the playoffs and then went on to win the Super Bowl the next season. (Just three examples: the 1988 49ers, the 2005 Steelers and yes, the 2019 Chiefs.)
Kansas City has 4-1 odds. Baltimore has 7-1 odds. New Orleans should be right there alongside those two teams. The 13-1 to win the Super Bowl is a gift.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 17-1)
Odds to win NFC: +550
Division: +150
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -230, No +190
Tom Brady over 4,169.5 pass yards (-110)
Clay: Brady has thrown for at least 4,170 yards in six of his past eight full seasons, falling just short in 2014 (4,109) and 2019 (4,057). He has been more conservative in recent seasons, but he suffered from shaky downfield targets in New England and his average depth of throw has remained in the vicinity of league average. He now heads to an aggressive Bruce Arians offense that has been pass-first during seven of the coach's past eight seasons. In fact, Arians' offenses have never ranked lower than 10th in aDOT and eight of his past 10 have finished in the top four. Tampa Bay's high-volume offense ranked fifth in plays and was the sixth-pass-heaviest in 2019.
Brady will have a much-improved supporting cast in Tampa Bay, led by Mike Evans (top 10 in aDOT five of his six seasons), Chris Godwin (fourth-best RAC at WR in 2019) and Rob Gronkowski (No. 1 TE in aDOT during his past three seasons). Brady's projection checks in at 4,444 yards.
Buccaneers under 9.5 wins (+105); Rob Gronkowski over 5 TD receptions (-110 at DraftKings)
Marks: Just looking at the roster on paper, I see why so many people are expecting Tampa Bay to not only win the NFC South but possibly the Super Bowl. But I see things a little differently. I see a 43-year-old quarterback, Tom Brady, coming off his most disappointing season and having to learn Bruce Arians' offense in a short preseason -- with little time and no preseason games to work with his new receivers. Also Brady will be playing behind an offensive line that ranked 26th in pressure rate (33%) last season, and not a lot of talent or depth in the backfield to keep defenses honest. The Bucs' schedule is not favorable, either, and they will have less rest than their opponents in at least five matchups. I do like the addition of Gronkowski, however. I know there are a lot of mouths to feed at that position, but considering the chemistry between Gronk and Brady from their time in New England, I'm anticipating a lot of scoring opportunities in the red zone for a rested and healthy Gronk.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (60-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +205, No -245
DeAndre Hopkins under 8.5 TD receptions (-110)
Clay: Hopkins has fallen short of seven receiving touchdowns during four of his seven NFL seasons, despite averaging 148.1 targets per season and missing a total of just two games. Nine TDs is a very hard mark to reach -- only six wide receivers hit it in 2019. Hopkins changed teams during the offseason and now joins a Kliff Kingsbury-coached offense that scored 53% of its touchdowns through the air last season -- 29th in the league. Hopkins is also a strong bet for at least a small dip in target share in a new offense, and his TD projection checks in at 7.7.
Kyler Murray over 3,779.5 passing yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: This isn't a big ask for Murray, who missed that number by just 58 yards last season despite being a rookie and playing for a rookie coach. The year of wisdom earned is definitely worth considering, as is the addition of a Pro Bowl wideout in Hopkins, who will help form one of the league's most lethal pass-catching collections alongside future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald and 2019 breakout receiver Christian Kirk (68-709-3 in 13 games).
Additionally, the Arizona defense stinks something fierce, having finished dead last in the NFL in total defense and 28th in scoring defense last season. Perhaps there will be some improvement in 2020, but this is still a far cry from a stalwart unit. The more points these guys give up, the more points Arizona's offense will have to score. And that means throwing the ball well into the fourth quarter on a consistent basis.
Cardinals under 7.5 wins (-110)
Johnson: It's interesting that the market perceives the Rams and the Cardinals to be fairly close in the NFC West. While the Rams on paper don't look to be as much of a contender as they have been the past two seasons, I still trust Sean McVay more than an Arizona team likely getting a little too much love in Year 2 under Kingsbury. I'm not rushing to bet the Rams' win total, or for them to win the division, so I think the real value here is Arizona under 7.5.
Even if I'm wrong about the Rams-Cardinals dynamic, Arizona would still need to finish at least .500 in a division with two teams that are clearly better (San Francisco, Seattle). We talk about selling on teams that get an inordinate amount of hype (a la Cleveland in the preseason last year), but I think this win total is flying under the radar because nobody typically expects Arizona to make the playoffs. So the hype train isn't soaring, nobody is rushing to fade that hype diminishing our price, and we're still getting a bargain on fading a .500 or better season.
The offense looks to be improved, but the defense and special teams both finished in the bottom third of the NFL a year ago and I don't expect big leaps. The back half of the schedule is particularly tough for a young team trying to make a push with no bye, and I currently have the Cardinals projected to be underdogs in seven of those eight games (a home game against the Rams could go either way). I project 6.8 wins on average, with seven-win and six-win seasons being the most frequent. Those will both cash for us while we're getting the extra half-win at 7.5, so I'm taking it.
Los Angeles Rams (30-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 25-1)
Odds to win NFC: 13-1
Division: 5-1
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +150, No -170
Cooper Kupp under 7.5 TD receptions (-120)
Clay: Kupp scored six touchdowns in eight games in 2018 and 10 in 16 games last season. That makes the "over" tempting here, but the wide receiver's opportunity-adjusted touchdown total (expected total based on usage) was a combined 8.2 during those two seasons. The 4.3 gap between Kupp's touchdown total and 5.7 OTD in 2019 was the ninth-highest in the NFL. He ranked 36th with six end-zone targets (he caught five), and has only 15 of them in his career. You might be thinking that perhaps Kupp is just good at scoring touchdowns, but history tells us touchdowns are an opportunity stat and players are all but locks to regress to the mean in this category. Brandin Cooks' departure boosts Kupp's prospects, but keep in mind that Kupp's snap share (87% to 63%), route share (88% to 68%) and target share (25% to 15%) all dipped significantly when the Rams turned to a more "12"-heavy offense during the final month of 2019. Kupp's receiving TD projection comes in at 5.7, which makes him a good bet even at -120.
San Francisco 49ers (+750 to win Super Bowl; opened 7-1)
Odds to win NFC: +350
Division: -115
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -325, No +265
No (+265) to make playoffs
Schatz: San Francisco is a very talented team but is about to smack hard into the Plexiglass Principle. Teams that make a major improvement from one season to the next tend to see some regression in the third season. And it's hard to find a team that improved quite like San Francisco did from 2018 to 2019. In 35 years of Football Outsiders stats, going all the way back to 1985, San Francisco is the first team to improve by 20% DVOA on both sides of the ball in the same season. The loss of veterans such as DeForest Buckner and Emmanuel Sanders won't help, either.
Will San Francisco regress enough to miss the playoffs entirely? It's not out of the question in the NFL's best and most balanced division. In Football Outsiders' most recent simulations, the 49ers miss the playoffs half the time. And you're not getting even odds on San Francisco missing the postseason, you're getting +265.
Yes (-325) to make playoffs
Kezirian: I am not exactly thrilled to be on the opposite side of Aaron, but this has been my favorite play all summer so I am going to maintain my position. San Francisco was easily the NFC's top team in 2019 and demonstrated that when healthy. The Niners pummeled teams at the beginning and end of the regular season, and then continued that dominance in the playoffs. The defense is incredibly stacked, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is another year removed from a serious knee injury, and the coaching staff is among the best. Plus, as we have seen from MLB, which is playing without a bubble, the coronavirus could present curveballs as the season progresses and might even shorten the schedule. Over the first five weeks, San Francisco opens with home games against Arizona, Philadelphia and Miami and road games against the Jets and Giants. I would classify that as extremely favorable. With an additional wild-card team this season, I find it hard to fathom a postseason without the 49ers.
Seattle Seahawks (12-1 to win Super Bowl; opened 14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 7-1
Division: +250
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -125, No +105
Seahawks under 9.5 wins (-115)
Fortenbaugh: Accounting for the postseason, Seattle went an incredibly unsustainable 11-2 in one-score games (decided by 8 or fewer points) in 2019 before falling at Green Bay during the divisional round. Further, the Seahawks concluded the 2019 campaign with a plus-12 turnover differential (tied for third in the NFL), which will be almost as challenging to replicate in 2020 as their record in one-score contests. The bottom line here is that there are several key factors pointing toward a Seattle regression, with the club's paltry plus-7 point differential perhaps serving as the biggest red flag. Even Jameis Winston and the 7-9 Buccaneers had a more favorable point differential (plus-9) than Seattle last season.