We've reached the conference championship round of the NFL playoffs, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network and fantasy's Mike Clay are here to tell us what they like from this weekend's pair of games.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday; picks on lines available at time of posting.
AFC championship
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 53)
Fortenbaugh: I've faded the Titans each of the past two weekends and have lost handily each of the past two weekends (causation, not correlation). Unfortunately, this has created quite the dilemma for my bankroll; do I jump on the Tennessee train and risk watching my analysis from the previous two weeks come back to bite me on the backside, or do I stay the course and tempt financial ruin at the hands of Mike Vrabel and Derrick Henry?
Sorry, fine people of Nashville, but I choose to stay the course. This is Tennessee's fourth consecutive road game, and any hint of a two-score deficit in the second half will virtually eliminate Henry's rushing prowess from the equation. Remember, the Titans rank 24th in pass defense (255.0 yards per game) and 23rd in opposing quarterback completion percentage (64.5%). After what happened against Houston last weekend, I have a feeling we'll see a much better start from the Chiefs on Sunday, which could spell disaster for Tennessee.
Pick: Chiefs -7
Youmans: After watching Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs erupt for 51 points in three quarters against the Texans, the public will expect to see a lot of points and want to bet on a high-scoring game. The under will be an unpopular play, but that's OK -- many of the best bets are the toughest to make.
It's no secret that Tennessee's plan will be to run Henry early and often to control the clock and keep Mahomes on the sideline as much as possible. In the divisional round at Baltimore, the Titans ran 37 times for 5.9 yards per carry with a time of possession of nearly 28 minutes. In the wild-card round at New England, Tennessee ran 40 times for 5.0 YPC and possessed the ball for 31 minutes. Those games totaled 40 and 33 points, respectively.
In the four games prior to last weekend, the Chiefs scored 31, 26, 23 and 23 points. If the Titans can execute their grind-it-out game plan -- and I believe they can -- this should be a 27-20 type of score. The total is likely to get bet to 54 by kickoff, so wait for the best number to play under.
Pick: Under 53
Youmans: During the regular season, the Chiefs ranked 26th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 128.2 yards per game. Their defense has been stronger lately, so the season-long numbers are a little deceiving, but it's not a tougher run defense than Baltimore and New England put on the field in the playoffs. Henry has resembled Jim Brown this postseason. Here are the three games most relevant when handicapping this one:
Divisional round at Baltimore: 30 carries, 195 yards, longest run 66 yards
Wild-card round at New England: 34 carries, 182 yards, longest run 29 yards
Week 10 vs. Kansas City: 23 carries, 188 yards, longest run 68 yards
Maybe Henry fails to break a long run this weekend; subtract his longest run in each game and Henry still rushed for 129, 153 and 120 yards in those games just noted. Or maybe the Titans fall behind. We have seen that facing a deficit -- Kansas City led Tennessee 10-0 in the first meeting -- but the Titans are not going to abandon the run. Henry will get 20-plus carries and should top what is a low prop number.
Pick: Henry over 102.5 rushing yards
Clay: Travis Kelce is averaging 80.2 yards per game this season and has reached the 80-yard mark eight times. That includes last weekend's divisional-round performance in which he put up 134 yards on 12 targets. Kelce has been targeted at least eight times in 14 of 17 games this season. One of the exceptions was the Week 10 meeting at Tennessee in which he fell just short of this line, with 75 yards on seven catches despite seeing only seven targets.
Of course, we shouldn't fear this matchup, as Tennessee allowed 916 receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season, which was seventh-most to the position. Kelce's projection comes in at 94 yards.
Pick: Kelce over 79.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: The Ryan Tannehill passing touchdown prop is easily the most attractive prop bet on the board. Tannehill has thrown at least two touchdowns in 10 of his 12 starts. The only exceptions were a Week 9 effort in which he threw one touchdown despite 331 passing yards, and the wild-card victory in New England in which he threw one on only 15 attempts against the Patriots' elite defense.
Tannehill has dropped back to pass only 57 times during his past three games, but note that Tennessee is averaging 25.6 dropbacks per game in nine wins and 39.7 per game in three losses during his 12 starts. That's notable with Tennessee a 7-point underdog at the high-scoring Chiefs. Six quarterbacks reached two passing scores against the Chiefs during the regular season, including Tannehill on only 19 attempts in Week 10. At +125, the over is the play here.
Pick: Tannehill over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+125)
NFC championship
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 45)
Kezirian: This is a textbook situation for a teaser on both favorites. I concede the underdogs have a chance to win outright, but I think the home teams have a distinct advantage.
Let's start with the Chiefs, who host a Titans team playing its fourth consecutive must-win game on the road. At some point that will take its toll, and I hope the defense runs out of gas against Kansas City. The Titans did a remarkable job covering Baltimore's wide receivers; Kansas City's wideouts are on another level though. Plus, I think the Chiefs found their defensive groove the past two months. Steve Spagnuolo's schemes are finally resonating.
As for the 49ers, I just trust them a lot more than I do Green Bay. The Packers have been a bit of fool's good all season, and I think it finally catches up with them. Plus, with key defensive players getting healthy, the San Francisco defense is starting to resemble the stout unit that started the season (the Niners allowed only seven first downs against the Vikings).
With that being said, I am not sold that Kyle Shanahan fully trusts Jimmy Garoppolo. After the quarterback's interception near the end of the first half against Minnesota, Shanahan realized that was his main risk and went away from his QB. In a one-score game in the second half, Shanahan had a stretch beginning with the 49ers' second possession where he called 12 consecutive run plays.
On top of that, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers did flash some throws against Seattle that reminded us of his prime. I am not quite sure I want to lay the full touchdown, but I do think San Francisco wins at home.
Pick: 6-point teaser: 49ers -1.5, Kansas City -1
Fortenbaugh: Following Sunday's victory over the Seahawks, the Packers find themselves sitting at 14-3 on the season with a plus-68 scoring differential, which smells awfully fishy. After all, the Chiefs are currently one win worse at 13-4, but they own a meaty plus-163 scoring differential. My point? The Packers aren't as good as their record indicates.
The 49ers, however, are every bit the freight train their 14-3 mark and elite defense indicate. Speaking of that elite defense, I mentioned this stat last week before laying the touchdown with San Francisco over Minnesota, and it bears repeating: With Nick Bosa and Dee Ford on the field at the same time this season, the 49ers' defense has recorded 24 sacks in just 164 snaps. With either Ford or Bosa or both on the sideline, the Niners have notched 24 sacks in 801 snaps.
Last weekend against Kirk Cousins? Six sacks, two turnovers and just 147 total yards of offense. Rodgers will be a sitting duck in that pocket on Sunday evening.
Pick: 49ers -7.5
Clay: Davante Adams has reached 93 receiving yards in four consecutive games, thanks primarily to heavy volume. Rodgers' go-to receiver managed 10-plus targets and seven-plus catches in all four games, averaging 118.0 yards per game and scoring four touchdowns during the span. Adams' 32% target share for the season is easily a career high, and he's seen nine-plus targets in 11 of 13 outings. That includes the Week 12 showdown with San Francisco in which he was held to 43 yards but caught seven of 12 targets and found the end zone.
Six wide receivers reached 84 yards against San Francisco during the regular season, and wideouts combined for 18 touchdowns against the 49ers, which was 10th-most in the league. Adams has found the end zone seven times during his past seven games. That string of touchdowns isn't particularly surprising considering he reached 10 touchdowns during each of the previous three seasons. Adams projects for 92 yards, and +140 is enough juice to go yes on him finding pay dirt.
Pick: Adams over 83.5 receiving yards (-110); yes to score TD (+140)
Clay: Garoppolo has reached 248 yards in nine of 17 games this season, though he barely made the cut with exactly 248 in two of those games. A lack of volume is his biggest detriment, as San Francisco has called pass 51% of the time, which is the league's second-lowest rate. The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites at home this weekend, so the most likely outcome sees them leaning heavily on the run while protecting a lead in the second half.
Nine of 17 opponents have reached 248 passing yards against Green Bay this season, and the Packers allowed the third-lowest completion rate (60%) and 14th-fewest passing yards (3,997) to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season. Garoppolo's projection comes in at 227 yards.
Pick: Garoppolo under 247.5 passing yards (-110)
Clay: As dominant a season as Aaron Jones has enjoyed, Green Bay's lead running back has fallen short of 66 rushing yards in 10 of his 17 games. That includes last weekend's outing, which saw him struggle to 62 yards on 21 carries against Seattle. The 49ers' defense will present an even tougher challenge, as the unit allowed 1,309 rushing yards to running backs during the regular season, eighth-fewest in the league. Jones was limited to 38 yards on 13 carries in the Week 12 meeting against the 49ers.
Game script doesn't figure to benefit Jones with the Packers entering Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog. His projection comes in at 56 yards.
Pick: Jones under 65.5 rushing yards (-110)