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          How the Titans, Chiefs, Packers and 49ers advance: Game plan keys to reaching Super Bowl LIV

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          Is this Andy Reid's best chance at a SB win? (1:41)

          Field Yates and Tim Hasselbeck examine Andy Reid's history in conference championship games and contend that this season's Chiefs team gives Reid his best shot to win a Super Bowl. (1:41)

          • Matt BowenJan 16, 2020, 07:30 AM ET
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              Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
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          The field shrinks to four, and the Super Bowl stands just one win away.

          For the second week in a row, an incredible 6-seed upset gave us a full view of why you can't count any team out in the playoffs. The Titans' takedown of the mighty Ravens, one week after knocking out the defending champion Patriots, illustrates the importance of following a game plan and executing it. So what will the coaching staffs of the four remaining squads scheme up for Sunday's conference championship matchups?

          Here are a couple of game plan keys -- one offensive and one defensive -- that can create matchup edges and a path to the Super Bowl for all four teams still in play. Let's start with the Titans, as they attempt to be giant-killers for a third straight week.

          Jump to:
          TEN | KC | GB | SF

          The Tennessee Titans beat the Chiefs if ...

          1. They create vertical deep-shot throws off play-action

          In the Week 10 head-to-head with Kansas City, running back Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. And we know to expect those outside zone runs with Henry again: Press the edge and find daylight to bend the ball back. But even if the Titans utilize Henry and the run game to control tempo, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense will still see eight or nine possessions. That's why I'm looking at Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill for deep-shot plays down the field off play-action.

          The Titans did it in that Week 10 matchup, with Tannehill finding wide receiver Kalif Raymond on a first-down pass for 52 yards, and more recently, they executed a 45-yard shot-play touchdown in the divisional-round win over the Ravens, shown below. Tennessee brought 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TE) into the game after a sudden change, with Raymond as the lone wide receiver. And he can fly. This is exactly where you take your shots Sunday versus the Chiefs. Ball between the 40-yard lines? Let's go to the end zone. Tennessee needs to generate explosive plays in the passing game to advance.

          2. Safety Kevin Byard can take away Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce

          The Tennessee defense will feature more multiple looks than what the Chiefs saw from the Texans' unit in the divisional round. You can't just line up and show Mahomes man coverage before the snap. That sends you home. And while the Texans lacked a true matchup player who could check Kelce in coverage on crossers and isolation routes, the Titans can use Byard, one of the NFL's most underrated defensive backs. With Byard, the Titans can play man coverage and man "robber" with their sub-package personnel in the game. Byard has the coverage traits and physical skill set to match Kelce, who posted 134 yards and three touchdowns on 10 catches last week.

          The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Titans if ...

          1. They can identify Tennessee's simulated pressure

          Earlier this season, I broke down a simulated pressure from the Titans' defense on ESPN's NFL Matchup. Linebackers drop and the top of the secondary rotates, with a second-level pass-rusher joining the front. And the Chiefs saw it back in Week 10, too, with a cornerback blitzing from the boundary. The key here is to identify that pressure, slide the protection and find the open windows when Tennessee rotates to two-deep coverage. Mahomes will need to make some second-reaction throws versus blitz looks on Sunday, but the Chiefs' ability to pick up those simulated pressures will allow the quarterback to pepper coverage voids from the pocket.

          2. They blitz with safety Tyrann Mathieu off the edge

          Given the aggressive call sheet of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and the anticipated heavy run-game volume for Henry, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas City roll out some early-down run blitzes. Whether it be linebackers hitting the A-gaps or using Mathieu as an edge blitzer, the Chiefs must create some conflict for the Tennessee offensive line. You can't just sit in base personnel and allow the Titans run outside zone with the guards climbing to the second level. They will wear you out.

          The Green Bay Packers beat the 49ers if ...

          1. They occupy the safeties in the Niners' quarters coverage

          We know the 49ers are a zone-heavy team, playing Cover 3 on 31% of opponent dropbacks during the regular season, the fourth most in the league. Green Bay will look to clear that out with deep crossers to wide receiver Davante Adams and tight end Jimmy Graham. But it can't forget about quarters coverage, which the 49ers played on 17.4% of offensive snaps, the second most in the league. Packers coach Matt LaFleur has to attack quarters by occupying (or removing) the safeties to put quarterback Aaron Rodgers in positive positions.

          Look for LaFleur to scheme some quarters-beaters that create inside voids for Adams on deep in-breakers, along with flood concepts that clear over the top while putting pressure on the underneath defenders. Yes, the 49ers will play both single-high and split-safety man coverage, too. But the key here is to develop a plan that allows Rodgers to attack coverage voids in rhythm from the pocket.

          2. The defense cuts San Francisco's crossers -- but replaces in the post

          The Packers will use their safeties in Cover 3 to cut crossing routes. Smart. That's how Green Bay can take away the play-action throws that target 49ers tight end George Kittle or wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel. But here's the thing: If you do that, you'd better replace over the top with the backside cornerback.

          During the 49ers' win against the Packers in Week 12, they used play-action to show a boot flood concept. Green Bay cut the crosser with the post safety, but with Kittle running a nasty corner-post route -- and the Packers failing to close the middle of the field -- quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had a wide-open toss for an easy six points. And I would bet that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan dials this up again, albeit out of a different personnel grouping and formation, to see if the Packers get the backside cornerback over the top.

          The San Francisco 49ers beat the Packers if ...

          1. They marry the run and pass games together on middle-of-the-field throws

          During the regular season, Garoppolo completed 73% of his passes inside the numbers for over 2,700 yards. That's where the ball is going in Shanahan's system. And by marrying the run and pass games together, play-action creates the open windows for Garoppolo to get the ball out with quick reads.

          Consider this 15-yard pass to Sanders in the Niners' Week 12 matchup with the Packers, shown below with NFL Next Gen Stats animation. With 21 personnel in the game (2 RB, 1 TE) and split-flow backfield action, Garoppolo was able to grab the eyes of the linebacker, create a window and throw the slant (or pop pass) to Sanders. We can expect Shanahan to use the run game action to move defenders while giving Garoppolo defined reads in the middle of the field.

          2. The defense schemes pass-rushing matchups with multiple fronts

          The 49ers are loaded on the defensive front with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. And when you study the tape, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will use multiple fronts, alignments and interior stunts to exploit matchups, putting the 49ers in position to attack protection counts. Bump Bosa inside? Check. Move Ford over the offensive guard in a two-point stance? Yep. Show a "tilted" front to get 3-on-3 in solo matchups? Sure. How about twist stunts that create open rush lanes? You got it. It all allows the 49ers to wreck the pocket while still playing their base coverages in the secondary. And it's a beautiful thing.