We've reached the final four of the NFL playoffs. Here's an early look at where the betting value lies in the conference championship games.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 45)
Everyone is going to be referencing the matchup between the Packers and 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season in which the 49ers dominated the Packers 37-8. I dug in trying to disprove how lopsided that final score was, but the problem is ... I can't.
Green Bay only committed one turnover and five penalties (four fewer than San Francisco), ran 70 plays and couldn't even muster 200 yards against this 49ers defense. That comes out to just 2.8 yards per play compared to San Francisco's 7.5 in the game.
The disparity between the Niners' offense and their opponents' unit wasn't quite as drastic in the divisional round against Minnesota, but with the 49ers' defense healthy again, it is hard to imagine Green Bay suddenly figuring things out. The Vikings were only able to gain 3.3 YPP on Saturday, and until a late first down in garbage time they were on pace to tie the record for fewest first downs in a postseason game. Minnesota was only flagged one time in the contest, so it wasn't like they were getting in their own way. They gained only 147 yards.
Betting analysis: My projection is only 49ers -7.4, and it honestly feels short. I won't ultimately be getting involved, but a healthy San Francisco defense is arguably the scariest in the NFL (ranked No. 1 in the NFL by allowing 4.6 YPP despite dealing with injuries the back half of the regular season). Similar to the early market in the divisional round when the 49ers were laying just 6.5 points to the Vikings, I'll be buying the 49ers if this week's matchup ever reaches that price.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 52)
The betting market made the Chiefs a 10-point home favorite over the Texans on Sunday. If you trust the market's expectation there, then the early -7s on Kansas City against Tennessee were cheap. I actually graded the Texans 0.3 points better on a neutral field than the Titans entering the playoffs, and while wins in New England and Baltimore deserve an upgrade and adjustment, it isn't significant enough for this number to be -7.
The Ravens turned the ball over three times on Saturday to go along with four more turnovers on downs. Baltimore outgained the Titans by 230 yards and 14 first downs. If a few high-leverage plays go a different direction in the contest, we are probably headed to Baltimore for the AFC Championship Game.
Betting analysis: Regardless, the early market agreed and this has moved to -7.5 at most sportsbooks. Keep an eye on the spread during the week in case this one pops back down at any point, but -7 is a fair strike point on the KC side and a pass for me otherwise.