We don't have to wait until Monday for a national champion to be crowned in football. The FCS championship game is this weekend in Frisco, Texas. For the ninth consecutive year, North Dakota State or James Madison will take home the FCS crown. ESPN betting analysts Phil Steele and Bill Connelly break down the matchup and give their picks on the heavyweight battle.
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Saturday's FCS championship game
James Madison Dukes (-1.5, 50) vs. North Dakota State Bison
Steele: These teams have been No. 1 and No. 2 in my power ratings all season. This is the third playoff matchup between the schools in the past four seasons. James Madison knocked the Bison out of the playoffs in the semifinals in 2016, and in 2017 North Dakota State won the national title game over JMU. Both teams have first-year head coaches, with Curt Cignetti having the edge with this being his ninth year overall as a head coach, but Matt Entz has the advantage of being at North Dakota State since 2014.
James Madison has the best defense in the FCS, having held foes to 113 yards per game below their season average, but the Bison are No. 2 at 101 yards per game below. James Madison is led by Pitt transfer QB Ben DiNucci, who has hit 71% of his passes with a 25 TDs and five interceptions and 498 yards rushing. The Dukes have a 1,000-yard rusher in RB Percy Agyei-Obese and a 1,000-yard receiver in Brandon Polk. North Dakota State RB Ty Brooks averages 7.0 yards per carry, but the offense goes through QB Trey Lance, who has rushed for 870 yards while hitting 67% of his passes with 25 TDs and zero picks.
My average game grades have James Madison 1.5 points better in this game. Although the game is even on paper, I have to side with a team that has won seven of the past eight national titles yet finds itself an underdog.
Pick: North Dakota State +1.5
Connelly: NDSU-JMU has quickly become the Bama-Clemson of FCS. The two teams played classics in the 2016 semifinals and 2017 finals before the Dukes fell off a bit in Mike Houston's last year in town. With Cignetti running the show, JMU not only has surged back near the top but also might be on the top.
I've been tinkering with SP+ ratings for the FCS level, and though these two teams have spent most of the season in the top two spots, as you would guess, JMU passed NDSU for No. 1 in late October and has stayed there since. You can make a strong case for the Dukes. No FCS opponent outside the SP+ top 15 has been able to hold them to fewer than 37 points, and they've beaten four top-15 teams by an average of 24-9. Mind you, NDSU is not exactly chopped liver. The Bison have beaten three SP+ top-15 opponents by an average of 37-15. But they had a few more glitchy moments against lesser teams -- a 9-3 playoff win over Illinois State, for instance, plus less-than-dominant wins of 21-7 over SIU and 22-0 over Missouri State.
We're splitting hairs, of course. But while Lance and the NDSU offense have been outstanding for much of the season, they suffered a smattering of red zone issues, and SP+ says JMU has the best defense in the country. It's easy to assume that the team that has won seven of the past eight FCS titles will figure out how to make it eight of nine, but this is the best JMU team since the 2016 team that won in Fargo.
SP+ projects the Dukes as 1.6-point favorites, which is nearly right on a line that has floated around JMU -1 or -1.5. At best, I would say to lean JMU, and it's hard to make that case. Based on how most of the Dukes' games against big-time competition have gone, though, I would also probably lean under 50 on the point total. SP+ projects about 54 total points scored, but JMU clearly doesn't mind a slog.
Pick: James Madison -1.5, Under 50