The Heisman Trophy race feels like watching two tightrope walkers and a sprinter all trying to cross the same finish line. One slip could decide everything, one stumble could rewrite ballots, or one surge could force voters to rethink what they thought they already knew.
Championship weekend is the final wire, and the margins are thin.
Remaining Heisman Trophy candidates
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana +125
Mendoza ends the regular season in the same spot he has been in the last three weeks -- in front. The Purdue game didn't redefine anything (80% completion rate, three touchdowns, no panic, no mistakes); it was protection of the résumé, and that's all that matters.
Mendoza will enter the Big Ten title game undefeated with the best single moment of the season and the cleanest narrative. The award comes down to one question: can Mendoza avoid the catastrophic performance that resets the race?
He no longer needs fireworks, he really just needs stability. If he plays with command, and Indiana is competitive, the award stays with him. He's (still) the quarterback voters have already emotionally attached to.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State +140
Sayin's final audition before the title game was more of the same. I wish I could copy and paste last week's piece. I mentioned if he played a "standard 27-14 type of script, throwing 21-for-28 for 240 yards, two touchdowns" then that wouldn't shift minds. He did just that in a 27-9 win over Michigan, finishing 19-for-26 with three touchdowns. That's Sayin. Efficient, controlled, never in danger and never unforgettable.
The Michigan win gets him credit for breaking a four-year losing streak, but the game was never a worry. The Ohio State offense delivered answers, and more importantly, the Ohio State defense did what it's been doing all season -- stopping opponents cold in their tracks.
Now, he has one chance. Saying must beat Mendoza on the field and give hundreds of voters a moment that finally sticks. A clean win is not enough. A stat line is not enough. Ohio State needs Sayin to author something emotional in real time, a drive, a throw, a decision under pressure that becomes the defining clip of championship weekend.
If Mendoza is steady and Sayin is steady, Mendoza wins.
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame +330
Love's run was fun while it lasted, but the injury against Stanford ends the conversation. Love needed a monster game because running backs need late-season dominance to stay afloat in a quarterback race. Missing a chunk of the final game with the Heisman window wide open is fatal. His résumé already lagged in volume, quality of competition and signature moments. The injury simply removed any remaining oxygen.
The initial jump near the top wasn't because of belief. His jump was significant because the rest of the field kept stalling. But now, Love is done.
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt 18-1
Pavia made a late-season charge, but the reality hasn't changed. Vanderbilt has no conference championship, no playoff path and no national stage left to shift voters. Pavia's résumé for sure has personality, toughness, numbers, the underdog story; it was a stellar season for a good quarterback, but it just doesn't have the punch required to leap Big Ten quarterbacks. His rise is justified, his ceiling is capped, but this is where the run ends unless absolute madness detonates above him.
The honest landscape heading into championship weekend
The race is down to one matchup: Mendoza versus Sayin. Everyone else is decoration and fills the spots for a New York invite. Mendoza has the moment. Sayin has the mechanics. The Heisman Trophy will be decided by who commands the bigger stage, who handles pressure, who produces the clip that voters can't forget.
If Mendoza simply protects his résumé, he wins. If Sayin finally delivers a season-defining moment, he has one chance to steal it.
That's the entire race now.
How to bet the award
If you like Sayin, you're betting on a Mendoza stumble. Target Mendoza UNDERs: passing yards, touchdowns, longest completion, plus interception props and Ohio State live lines if Indiana starts slow, because Sayin only wins if Mendoza hands him the opening.
If you like Mendoza, play stability: no interception, overs on completions, efficiency props and Indiana plus the spread, because a clean, composed game locks the awards in his hands.