The college football season has reached its crescendo. Clemson (14-0) will take on LSU (14-0) for the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday.
The game will offer plenty of betting opportunities. ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer their best bets for the game.
Overall records
Connelly: 32-21-2 (2-2 in bowls)
Steele: 36-44-1 (6-6)
Johnson: 36-28-1 (2-4)
Kezirian: 49-39-1 (2-4)
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted.
CFP National Championship
Clemson Tigers vs. LSU Tigers (-6, 69.5)
(8 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Connelly: I have three reasons for leaning toward Clemson in this one:
1. The line is a mirage. Although it feels like a -6 line is likely to trend slightly toward the favorite (because the 7-point win is on the table), six-point favorites are historically right at 50% against the spread since 1978, per ESPN Stats & Info.
2. SP+ is 56% ATS this season in games in which it disagrees with the spread by at least three points, and the difference is right at three in Clemson's favor for this one (it projects a 32-29 LSU win). Even if we frame that differently, there is still enough of a difference to matter. SP+ is 54% ATS when it disagrees in the 2.8- to 3.2-point range, for instance.
3. SP+ has repeatedly underestimated Clemson this season. Because of the Tigers' steady ability to shift from third to fifth gear midseason, it has been underselling them because of merely good early-season performances. Just as Clemson is 8-0 ATS since the North Carolina game, SP+ is 0-8 ATS in picking Clemson's opponent each week. Well, now it's picking Clemson. It would be downright rude if Dabo Swinney's team chose this moment to finally underachieve.
Pick: Clemson +6, +185 money line
Steele: If this game were a semifinal, the line would be close to a pick 'em, but after LSU destroyed Oklahoma and Clemson needed a comeback to beat Ohio State, the Tigers from Louisiana are favored by nearly a touchdown. LSU has faced the much tougher schedule, with six wins over top-10 teams, while Clemson has just one. This game is in New Orleans, so LSU will have a clear home-field edge.
The skill players on both sides are elite, but LSU won the Joe Moore Award for the top offensive line in the country and has an advantage on offense with a stronger front. Dave Aranda and Brent Venables are two of the most talented defensive coordinators in the country, but each unit has shown some flaws. Clemson has held foes to 152 yards per game below their season average (No. 1 in the FBS) but gave up 516 yards to Ohio State. The Tigers have allowed just 270 yards per game in their past four games, but four times this season, they allowed more than 450 yards in a game.
Dabo Swinney is an outstanding 8-1 ATS as an underdog in the postseason, with six outright upsets. I find it tough to go against either squad, so I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 69.5
Kezirian: I'm not putting a ton of stock in Clemson's offensive struggles against Ohio State. Although the Buckeyes controlled the line of scrimmage, I attribute the limited points by both teams to the Fiesta Bowl's incredibly poor field conditions. It was inexcusable to see players slipping so much. This championship game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and I expect a showcase of speed that favors the offense, similar to what we saw in the Peach Bowl (also a domed stadium).
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow posted one of the sport's greatest seasons ever, and there's no reason to think his Tigers will experience that much trouble. Plus, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be much healthier after being limited against Oklahoma due to a hamstring injury. As for the LSU defense, we've seen it appear leaky against respectable offenses. Texas, Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss each scored at least 28 points. I concede that not everything is apples to apples, and every game is different, but this defense is nowhere close to as dominant as the offense. Clemson still ranks fourth in offensive efficiency, so I expect the Tigers from South Carolina and their top-tier skill position players to be capable of scoring enough points.
Pick: Over 69.5
Johnson: If this was a month ago, I would have flown anywhere in the world to get Clemson at this price; LSU would have been the favorite everywhere. This is the first week the entire season that I have had LSU rated better, but not by much. Dominant wins against Oklahoma and Georgia have called for adjustments, but I still only project them to win the game 50.7% of the time. If you want to give LSU a little something extra for playing the game closer to home, that's fine, but it doesn't warrant this spread being six points.
Clemson is my top-graded defense and rank No. 1 in rushing success rate -- the most important factors when facing LSU. If any team can slow down this offense, it's the best defense in the country led by Venables. Where has the LSU defense been susceptible at times over the course of the season? The ground game. Via SportsSource Analytics, Clemson running back Travis Etienne leads the country in yards after contact and has forced missed tackles at a record 45% rate. When a future No. 1 NFL draft pick in Trevor Lawrence is under center paired with Etienne and the best defense in the game -- coached by Dabo freakin' Swinney -- it's hard to imagine that team getting six points is the fair price.
Pick: Clemson +6