The NFL playoffs are finally here, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network and fantasy's Mike Clay are here to tell us what they like from this weekend's wild-card slate.
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
Sunday's games
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 49.5)
Youmans: Kirk Cousins is in search of his first career playoff win. Drew Brees and the Saints are seeking revenge for Minnesota's miracle playoff win two years ago. What we should see Sunday is high-level quarterback play from Cousins and Brees in a high-scoring game. This total opened 47, sharp money has pushed it to 49.5, and it's likely to close higher.
In their past five road games, the Vikings scored an average of 32.4 points and allowed 25.4 points. Minnesota's defense allowed 24 or more points in four of those games, the exception being when Philip Rivers and the Chargers scored 10. The offense will get a boost this weekend with the return of running back Dalvin Cook. The Vikings have scored 27 points per game with Cook on the field.
In their past three home games, the Saints scored 34, 46 and 34 points. Brees is finishing strong -- unlike last season at this time, when his arm strength was obviously fading. Brees completed 77.5% of his passes and recorded 17 of his 27 total touchdowns at the Superdome this season. The New Orleans defense allowed an average of 38 points to the only two playoff teams (San Francisco and Tennessee) it faced in December. I project the Saints to win 31-24.
Pick: Over 49.5
Fortenbaugh: Ever since that 26-9 upset loss to Atlanta in the Voodoo Dome back in Week 10, the New Orleans offense has been smoking the opposition to the tune of 36.2 points per game, with six of those seven matchups featuring 34 or more points. That's bad news for a Minnesota defense that ranks 16th in the NFL in points allowed on the road (21.8) as it gets set to try to limit a Brees-led offense that ranks fourth in the league in points per game at home (28.4) and second in yards per play (6.5).
Speaking of the Minnesota defense, check out the following home/road splits that unit produced in 2019:
• Home: 16.1 points, 5.0 YPP, 34.3% third-down conversion, 28 sacks, 36.3% red zone conversion
• Away: 21.8 points, 5.4 YPP, 44.6% third-down conversion, 20 sacks, 50% red zone conversion
On the flip side, Cook is expected back at running back for a Vikings offense that ranked ninth in the league in road scoring (26.5 PPG) and fifth in yards per play (6.0) this season. The Vikings should find plenty of success against a Saints defense that permitted an average of 22.9 points per game at home in 2019 (15th in the NFL).
Pick: Over 49.5 points
Johnson: Is it finally the year that the late-game playoff craziness breaks the Saints' way? The numbers say New Orleans shouldn't have much to worry about during wild-card weekend. My projections have the Saints -8 with a total of 50. I don't show much of an edge betting either the side or the total straight-up, but taking New Orleans down to -1.5 as a six-point teaser leg cuts through the key numbers as a profitable long-term teaser play.
Pick: Saints -1.5 in a teaser with Eagles +7.5
Kezirian: The Saints will likely be a popular teaser play this weekend. I do not want to become a prisoner of the moment and fixate on how poorly Cousins and the Vikings played against the Packers on Monday Night Football (10 total points), but New Orleans is a class above Minnesota. Also, although Cousins is an overplayed punchline, he is a shaky quarterback. I've been impressed by New Orleans all season, and I trust the Saints much more in this spot.
Pick: Saints -1.5 in a teaser with Bills +9
Clay: Minnesota got away from its extremely run-heavy offense early in the season, and Cousins has reached 246 yards passing in six of the team's past 11 games. Although the Vikings still lean toward the run, Cousins has offset low volume with terrific efficiency; he sits top-seven in both completion rate (69%) and yards per attempt (8.1). The Vikings are 7.5-point underdogs, which is notable, as they've unsurprisingly called pass 63% of the time in six losses, compared to 46% of the time in 10 wins. Those extra pass attempts could be the difference against a Saints defense that allowed 257.5 passing yards per game during the regular season. Ten quarterbacks managed to clear 246 passing yards against the Saints in their 16 games. Cousins' projection comes in at 265 yards.
Pick: Kirk Cousins over 245.5 pass yards (-110)
Clay: Michael Thomas reached the 100-yard mark 10 times on his way to the NFL's single-season receptions record (149) during the regular season. Thomas' massive 33% target share has allowed him 11.6 targets per game, including at least nine in 14 of 16 regular-season games. It's a very high bar, but seven wide receivers posted 100-yard games against Minnesota this season, and the Vikings' biggest weak spot has been defending perimeter receivers, which is where Thomas aligns 70% of the time.
Minnesota has surrendered the second-most receptions, ninth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest catch rate (68%) to wideouts. Add the fact that New Orleans has the fourth-pass-heaviest offense (game flow adjusted) since Week 10, and Thomas' projection lands closer to 107 yards.
Pick: Thomas over 99.5 receiving yards (-110)
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 46) at Philadelphia Eagles
Fortenbaugh: Philly tight end Zach Ertz, who leads the team in targets (135), receptions (88), receiving yards (916) and receiving touchdowns (six), is battling a broken rib and lacerated kidney, and running back Miles Sanders is fighting a sprained ankle. Even more troubling, Pro Bowl offensive guard Brandon Brooks has been ruled out for the season due to a shoulder injury. For an offense that doesn't have a wide receiver with more than 490 receiving yards this season, that's absolutely devastating news.
Seattle is banged up as well, most notably at the running back position. But what does it matter? Stopping the run is the strength of the Eagles' defense (third in the NFL), so this game comes down to whether Russell Wilson can produce a second win at Lincoln Financial Field in six weeks' time. I'm betting the answer to that question is yes, as the Seahawks are 7-1 straight-up and 5-2-1 against the spread on the road this season, while the Eagles just won four consecutive games against three teams that will all have new head coaches next season.
And how about this stat you can use to impress your friends at the bar on Sunday: Teams that played the San Francisco 49ers this season and then had a game the following week (no bye) are 9-4 straight up and an astounding 11-1-1 against the number in that next game while covering the point spread by the remarkable average of 8.3 points per game.
Pick: Seahawks -1.5
Johnson: My numbers say the wrong team is favored, and considering that I have the Eagles -2.1 and we can get them up to +7.5 as a six-point teaser leg with the Saints, I gobbled up as much as I was able to early in the week.
The Eagles' defense is fairly underrated. The unit graded No. 4 in adjusted success rate and ranked No. 2 against the run this season. We know the Seahawks like to pound the ball on the ground (despite the injuries they've suffered in the backfield), and that plays into what the Eagles do best.
I trust coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Carson Wentz to keep this close in a home wild-card game against a defense that finished 29th in success rate. (Only the Dolphins, Raiders and Bengals ranked worse.)
Pick: Eagles +7.5 in a teaser with Saints -1.5
Kezirian: Sometimes you have to be unafraid to lose a bet. That philosophy applies here. There are too many factors that lead me to believe that Seattle will win this game. We've seen the Eagles struggle way too often to think they can handle a good team such as the Seahawks. A large reason for that is the mounting injuries. If Ertz is unable to play, I think Philly is in a world of hurt. Lane Johnson is also so correlated to Wentz's success. In the end, Wilson is whom I want to back. If I lose, so be it.
Pick: Seattle -1.5
Clay: Wilson has gone over 244 passing yards in only seven of 16 games this season, though he managed 200 yards on 25 attempts in a poor-weather affair against the Eagles in Week 12. Seattle prefers to lean on the run but has called pass 63% of the time the past month while trailing or close with the Rams, Panthers, Cardinals and 49ers. Wilson, who is averaging 256.7 passing yards, will take on an Eagles defense allowing 257.5 yards per game. Offenses attack Philadelphia's shaky pass defense deep down field, as the Eagles' 9.1 average depth of throw against is third highest in the league.
Eight quarterbacks reached 244 yards against the Eagles during the regular season. Expect Wilson to attack the Eagles' struggling perimeter corners with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf while landing close to 271 pass yards.
Pick: Wilson over 243.5 pass yards (-110)
Completed games
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3, 43.5)
Fortenbaugh: Buffalo's offense -- while anemic at times, courtesy of a 5.2 yards per play average in 2019 (tied for 21st in the NFL) -- should operate at a more successful level Saturday in Houston against a dreadful Texans defense that ranks last in the league in both red zone defense and opponent yards per play, not to mention 31st in opponent third-down conversions, 28th in total defense and 19th in scoring defense. Additionally, keep in mind that the Bills have scored more points per game on the road this season (21.5) than at home (17.8).
As for Buffalo's defense, take note that 11 of the team's 16 games came against opponents that ranked 21st or worse in yards per play, so the unit's stats are beefed up a bit, courtesy of below-average competition. In those other five contests, the Bills lost and failed to cover the spread against Baltimore and Cleveland and beat a Tennessee squad that was riding with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Houston ranks 11th in yards per play, and both franchises rank in the top 13 in pace, so I'm betting this game cruises over the total.
Pick: Over 43.5 points
Clay: Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has gone over 233 yards in 10 of 16 games this season, including four of his past five. Houston has leaned on the pass more of late, operating the league's 10th-pass-heaviest offense the past eight weeks (game script adjusted).
Buffalo, meanwhile, is allowing only 213.8 passing yards per game this season (fourth lowest). However, seven quarterbacks have reached 233 passing yards against the Bills, and five of the eight passers the Bills have faced on the road have hit the mark (exceptions: Devlin Hodges, Mariota, Sam Darnold). A competitive game should help Watson get closer to his projection of 249 yards.
Pick: Watson over 232.5 pass yards (-110)
Clay: Carlos Hyde has gone over 65 rushing yards in eight of 15 full games played and is averaging 70.5 rushing yards per game in those outings this season. Prior to resting in Week 17, Hyde had handled at least 81% of Houston's designed rushing attempts in three consecutive games (19.0 carries per game).
As good as the Bills' pass defense is, the run defense hasn't been quite as dominant, allowing 4.4 yards per carry (12th highest) this season. Nine running backs reached 66 rushing yards against Buffalo. Expect Hyde to land closer to 78 yards in what is likely to be a close game.
Pick: Hyde over 65.5 rushing yards (-110)
Clay: Devin Singletary has reached double-digit carries in seven career games and has gone over 70 yards in five of those outings. Will he reach double-digit carries against Houston? It's very likely. Singletary missed time due to an injury earlier this season but took on a large role once healthy. During Weeks 8-16, the rookie out-carried Frank Gore 134-74 while playing a hefty 74% of the offensive snaps. He'll also benefit from a decent matchup, as the opposing Texans are allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs this season (seventh most). Eight backs have hit 71 yards against them. A better baseline for Singletary is 82 yards.
Pick: Singletary over 70.5 rush yards (-110)
Kezirian: The Bills are made for teasers. They've lost only one game this season by more than a touchdown. Good coaching and strong defenses travel in the postseason, and that's what Buffalo is bringing to Houston.
Obviously the Texans have firepower, and that concerns me a bit, but I am grabbing 7.5 points with a teaser in what I think will be a close game. Also, I kind of like DeAndre Hopkins at 7-1 to score the game's first touchdown. That's just too enticing of a payout for a guy who is as good as they come.
Pick: Bills +9 in teaser with Saints -1.5
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5, 44.5)
Fortenbaugh: I'm not buying what the Titans are selling. Having captured the country's attention with a 7-3 run (6-3-1 against the spread) to close the season under former top-10 bust Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee has become the fashionable underdog entering the postseason. But let's take a closer look at those seven victories engineered by Tannehill, shall we?
Start by throwing out that Week 17 win against the Texans, which came against Houston's B squad. Then note that of the remaining six victories, five came against teams with losing records that also ranked 14th or worse in scoring defense. That leaves us with one very credible success against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but even that win took place in Nashville! Of Tennessee's four road games under Tannehill, one was a loss at Carolina, one was that aforementioned win at Houston in Week 17, and the other two were victories over lousy Oakland and Indianapolis clubs.
This game is a massive step up in class for the Titans and, specifically, coach Mike Vrabel, whose game management has come under fire in recent weeks. If I'm going to fade the Patriots in the playoffs, the opponent needs to bring to the table a far more impressive résumé than what Tennessee boasts.
Pick: Patriots -5
Bearman: Time and time again, the Patriots rise up when everyone thinks they are down. Usually it happens in September after a 2-2 start, and not in January, as they usually roll into a first-round bye. The Patriots of 2019 are not passing the eye test of past great Patriots teams, and I'm not sure many out there are biting on their 20-1 odds to win the whole thing. But win one playoff game? That's doable.
The home Dolphins loss is not something anyone saw coming, and it should serve as a wakeup call against an average Tennessee team. The Pats still have the top defense across the board and get a prime-time home game. New England is an incredible 20-3 at home in the postseason with quarterback Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick, including victories in the past nine games (six by double digits) in Foxborough, Massachusetts. They have covered five of the past six home playoff games.
We agree that this isn't the same dominant Pats team, but what about the opponent? Tennessee enters as hot as anyone, having won seven of its past 10 to complete the AFC field. However, as Joe noted earlier, only one of those victories came against a team with a winning record (that wasn't benching starters in Week 17). Tennessee does bring NFL rushing champ Derrick Henry. He faces a Pats defense holding teams to 95.5 yards per game (sixth best in the NFL). The QB leading the charge is Tannehill, who is making his playoff debut and is 0-6 all time in Foxborough, having lost by an average of 22 points with average Miami teams. By the way, the Patriots are 11-0 under Belichick against QBs in their first postseasons as starters.
Pick: Patriots -5
Clay: Tannehill has gone over 249 yards in six of 10 starts this season, though he certainly benefited greatly from seven of those 10 starts coming against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yardage allowed. As well as Tannehill has played, this will undoubtedly be his toughest challenge. The Patriots allowed a league-low 301 pass completions overall and 199.3 passing yards per game (second-fewest) during the regular season. Only three quarterbacks reached 249 passing yards against New England this season: Ben Roethlisberger (276) in a blowout Week 1 loss, Mahomes (283) in Week 14 and Ryan Fitzpatrick (320) in Week 17.
Tannehill could make this interesting if the Titans are trailing big throughout, but they figure to commit to the run as best they can after calling the game-script-adjusted run-heaviest offense in the final two months of the regular season. A better baseline for Tannehill is 233 yards against this tough New England defense.
Pick: Tannehill under 248.5 pass yards (-110)
Clay: Brady has reached 243 passing yards in 10 of 16 games this season. He has also reached 262 passing yards in each of his past 12 and 21 of his past 26 playoff games. Brady ranks no lower than seventh among quarterbacks in pass attempts, completions and yards, whereas the Titans' defense ranks no better than seventh-worst in pass attempts, completions and yards against. In fact, 10 quarterbacks have reached 243 passing yards against Tennessee this season, with the exceptions among opposing starters being Jacoby Brissett, Kyle Allen, Josh Allen, Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco and AJ McCarron. Expect Brady to land closer to 265 yards.
Pick: Brady over 242.5 pass yards (-110)