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          How each team in the NFL wild-card round advances: Game plan keys to victory for all eight squads

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          Booger: Watson, Watt must show up in playoffs (1:46)

          Booger McFarland contends that Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt need to play to their potential in order for the Texans to succeed in the playoffs. (1:46)

          • Matt BowenJan 2, 2020, 07:30 AM ET
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              Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
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          The NFL's wild-card weekend is here. Win and it's on to the divisional round.

          Let's dial in to all four games and see how each team gets it done. Here are a couple of game plan keys -- one offensive and one defensive -- that can create matchup edges and a path to the divisional round for all eight teams in play this weekend.

          Let's start with the AFC games on Saturday, then move into the NFC slate that kicks off Sunday afternoon.

          Jump to:
          AFC: BUF | HOU | TEN | NE
          NFC: MIN | NO | SEA | PHI

          The Buffalo Bills beat the Texans if ...

          1. Quarterback Josh Allen hits his deep-ball throws

          The Bills will draw up shot plays for Allen -- like they did on a touchdown throw to wide receiver John Brown versus the Patriots in Week 16 -- but it's on the quarterback to be accurate with the ball over the top. On throws of 20 or more yards down the field this season, Allen ranked No. 28 in the NFL in Total QBR (36.8), with a completion rate of just 26.5%. Allen still shows signs of being a one-speed thrower. Simply put, he has to display more touch and win with ball placement when Brown separates in the vertical passing game.

          2. The defense limits the production of Houston wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins

          The Bills feature a zone-heavy defense -- they play zone on 54% of their snaps -- so we will see a lot of split-safety coverage. That puts the safeties in a position to play top-down or cut the crossers when the Texans work the ball to Hopkins in the middle of the field. And we know that's coming for Houston -- a clear-out post with Hopkins on the deep crosser or over route.

          Keep an eye on the Buffalo defense when it does play single-high man coverage, however. When the Bills faced the Texans last season, Buffalo matched up cornerback Tre'Davious White on Hopkins and played more man coverage. That's good football. Give me the best versus the best on the playoff stage.

          The Houston Texans beat the Bills if ...

          1. They create open throwing windows for quarterback Deshaun Watson

          As mentioned, the Bills will bring a zone-heavy approach on defense. But the Texans will have answers against Cover 2 and quarters looks to give Watson open throwing windows. How? Think of leveled route concepts that force underneath defenders to sit short in their zone drops or flood concepts that put curl defenders in conflict. The idea here is to give Watson a high-to-low read versus zone coverage, allowing him to target Hopkins and Kenny Stills on deep in-breakers.

          2. They take away Allen's ability to make second-reaction throws

          I fully expect Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel to muddy the coverage looks for the Buffalo quarterback pre-snap and to bring pressure based on down and distance. But the Texans also must limit Allen's ability to make off-schedule plays. The Bills quarterback can extend plays with both his arm and legs, and that puts him in a position to make a second-reaction throws when receivers convert down the field. Houston has to make Allen throw from the pocket and rush with almost two-gap technique to prevent him from finding an escape door.

          The Tennessee Titans beat the Patriots if ...

          1. They lean on heavy running-game volume with running back Derrick Henry

          Henry, who led the NFL in rushing with 1,540 yards, ranked No. 1 in the league with an average of 2.3 yards after first contact. The guy is a beast. And the Titans will get him on a downhill track in both zone and power schemes. That caters to Henry's vision in bending the ball back, especially in zone schemes, and his ability to push through tacklers when he gets his pads square as a north-south runner. If the Titans are going to advance, Henry needs 20-plus carries on Saturday night. Make the Patriots tackle him for four quarters, while also setting up quarterback Ryan Tannehill to target open coverage voids in the play-action passing game.

          2. The defense brings simulated pressure

          When the Titans have their sub-package personnel on the field (nickel or dime), look for defensive coordinator Dean Pees to dial up simulated pressure versus a Patriots offensive line that has struggled in pass protection. That allows the Titans to spin the top of the secondary to a two-deep shell with a linebacker or defensive back adding to the pass rush. Get the post-snap rotation to Cover 2, with the boundary cornerback unaccounted for on the pressure.

          Check out this example from the Titans' Week 1 win over the Browns, shown below in an animation from NFL Next Gen Stats. It's a sack from injured pass-rusher Cameron Wake, but the concepts still apply. It's nasty stuff like this that will put the Titans in a position to go after Tom Brady on Saturday night.

          The New England Patriots beat the Titans if ...

          1. They utilize the screen game with James White and Rex Burkhead

          The Patriots' offense has lacked explosive-play ability this season, but the screen game will allow New England to manufacture chunk gains with both White and Burkhead. Look for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to dial up screen calls off misdirection when the Patriots have the ball in plus field position.

          On the opening drive of a Week 15 win over the Bengals, Brady connected on such a play for a 23-yard touchdown. Bring wide receiver Julian Edelman into the backfield as a misdirection and swing the ball out to White with blockers in front. These are high-percentage plays for Brady and the Patriots versus a Tennessee defense that will rush up the field with speed.

          2. They take away Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown

          Brown has star potential in Tennessee, and we saw the boost in production later in the season with Tannehill under center. From Weeks 12 to 17, Brown caught 25 of 39 targets for 650 yards, with four touchdown grabs coming on plays of 50-plus yards. He is a versatile target with size and great catch-and-run ability.

          So how do the Patriots respond? I see cornerback Stephon Gilmore taking this matchup, due to his ability to play both outside the numbers and cover down in the slot. And we know coach Bill Belichick will utilize his safeties as inside "robbers" to take away the crossers and as bracket defenders to double Brown in critical game situations. In short, I don't think the Patriots let Brown beat them on Saturday night.

          The Minnesota Vikings beat the Saints if ...

          1. They feature running back Dalvin Cook on outside zone runs

          With the anticipation that Cook is healthy for this contest, why change the script for Minnesota? The running back produced 13 explosive runs this season (runs of 15 yards or more), and he is at his best as a zone runner. That's where we see the mix of patience, vision and the extra gear to push the ball through the second level of the defense. He can scoot. And with that zone run package comes the bootleg schemes for quarterback Kirk Cousins in the Minnesota passing game: flood, deep overs, throw the post and more. But it all starts with Cook, and the game plan has to go through him for the Vikings to advance.

          2. They adjust to Saints coach Sean Payton's multiple offense

          Payton is going to test the communication skills of the Vikings' secondary, along with Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer's ability to match personnel. Look for New Orleans to use multiple personnel groupings, flex running backs outside the formation and sprinkle in scheme-specific plays for super back Taysom Hill. That means the Vikings have to play within the scheme of Zimmer's defense while being tested to identify and match unique personnel groupings and alignments. It's a long day of work when you line up to play the Saints' offense.

          The New Orleans Saints beat the Vikings if ...

          1. They scheme matchups for running back Alvin Kamara in the passing game

          We know the Vikings are a heavy split-safety defense under Zimmer, and that will allow Payton to create isolation matchups for Kamara both out of the backfield and when he lines up as a receiver. The key? Find the linebackers who have to match as underneath defenders.

          In a 2018 matchup with Minnesota, the Saints ran double post-wheel concepts to clear the top of the defense, creating a one-on-one for Kamara versus the linebacker. Boom, Drew Brees hits Kamara for an easy 17 yards, shown by NFL Next Gen Stats animation.

          2. The defense forces Cousins to throw from the pocket

          Cousins led all NFL quarterbacks with 13 touchdown passes off play-action this season, while completing 71.9% of those throws. And it starts with boot. The Vikings want to get Cousins outside of the pocket -- where he can move almost to the top of the numbers -- to read three-level concepts. This falls on the Saints' edge defenders to stay home and take away boot. Cousins wants to show the ball to Cook on outside zone and boot off that. As an edge defender, you can't take the cheese there.

          The Seattle Seahawks beat the Eagles if ...

          1. They throw play-action shots with quarterback Russell Wilson

          The Seahawks will have a run-heavy game plan Sunday to feed Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer. We know that. It is the identity of this Seattle offense. But we also have to focus on the play-action passing game that allows Wilson to target both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf on those deep crossers or double moves. This season, Lockett has produced 15 explosive plays (receptions of 20 yards or more). Look for Seattle to take an early shot in this one, with Lockett aligned in the slot versus a banged-up Eagles secondary that wants to play man coverage.

          2. The defense creates interior pressure

          When you study the Seahawks' defense on film, it can create interior pressure with its front four off defensive line stunts. Whether that is defensive end Jadeveon Clowney stunting to the B gap or an interior stunt that opens up a vertical rushing lane off a pick, Seattle can scheme up pressure while playing coverage in the secondary. And with Eagles starting right guard Brandon Brooks down for this game, the Seahawks can win matchups inside.

          The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Seahawks if ...

          1. The offense schemes open its tight ends in the passing game

          Philadelphia will have to script matchups for the tight ends versus the Seahawks' single-high and split-safety zone coverages. That has been the theme in Philly for this Eagles offense given the injuries and the lack of explosive-play talent at the wide receiver spot. Look for head coach Doug Pederson to create open-window throws for quarterback Carson Wentz here with Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz (if he is active) and Josh Perkins.

          One example? Check out this 6-yard touchdown pass from Wentz to Goedert in the Week 15 win over the Cowboys. Wentz pump-fakes to hold the post safety, then works the stick-nod route backside with both tight ends in a wing alignment. That's how you scheme against red zone coverage.

          2. The defense wins in man coverage

          The Eagles want to play single-high man coverage, and they don't pressure much. But that means they must win the man matchups Sunday with cornerbacks Sidney Jones, Jalen Mills and Avonte Maddox. And I'm really looking inside at the slot position, where I expect to see Maddox in coverage versus Lockett. Philly has to take away the crossers and the deep corner routes that cater to Lockett's route running and short-area speed. Get beat there and it's a quick six points.