It's the most important position at the most important time of the year. We're talking quarterbacks in the 2019 NFL playoffs, and we're ranking them from 1-12.
Things look a little different than when we did this last year, with quarterbacks (and teams) rising and falling. And in the 2019 rankings, the positions of two superstar names might surprise you.
This ranking is based only on all 12 quarterbacks' level of play in the 2019 regular season, and how each is playing right now. It is heavily informed by two sets of metrics:
Total QBR and expected points added per play, which is the underlying foundation for how QBR is calculated.
And completion percentage over expectation and completed air yards over expectation, which both utilize NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion probability.
Those metrics, as well as information from ESPN video tracking, helped inform not only these rankings but the strengths and weaknesses identified for each quarterback. We also had help from our NFL Nation reporters, who wrote about what's at stake for all 12 signal-callers. Let's start with the MVP front-runner:
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Season at a glance (full stats): Jackson's incredible improvement is the story of the season. The Ravens built their roster and scheme around his strengths -- and the plan worked to perfection. A heavy passing attack is almost always superior to a ground-focused offense, but Baltimore is the exception to that rule thanks in large part to Jackson. The result is a league-best Total QBR of 81.7 and a likely and deserved MVP award.
Strength: Can we say almost everything? Even if we looked only at passes and sacks, Jackson ranks second in QBR. A year ago he showed vulnerability against the blitz and against dime coverage, but he now excels in both categories.
Weakness: Jackson's accuracy is not elite -- that tepid criticism is the worst we can find on him. Jackson's off-target rate is around league average, as is his completion percentage over expectation. Keep in mind, those two stats are recorded only on plays where he throws the ball, which is a fraction of his total action plays.
Jamison Hensley on what's at stake for Jackson: How the start of Jackson's playoff legacy is viewed. The worst game of his young career came in last season's wild-card loss to the Chargers. He completed 3 of 9 passes for 25 yards in the first three quarters. That disappointing game fueled Jackson throughout the offseason. Now, as the MVP front-runner, Jackson can prove that woeful postseason debut was an aberration.
2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Season at a glance (full stats): The story of the Seahawks' season is Wilson's ability to lead his team to success despite a coaching staff that tries to limit its best player's impact. The Seahawks run far too often on early downs. It's a hilariously misguided approach for a team that has a great quarterback and isn't even good at running the ball. Coach Pete Carroll is trying to play throwback football with an elite quarterback -- and yet Wilson has delivered anyway. And he has done so with a bottom-five pass-blocking offensive line.
Strength: The deep ball. It's not just pretty; it gets results. An average quarterback would have been expected to complete 29.9% of the 20-plus air yard passes he has attempted, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But Wilson has actually completed 42.7% of those passes, and his plus-12.8 point differential on those passes is third-best in the league. Though it's fair to be critical of Seattle's desire to run the ball, at least Wilson attempts 20-plus air yard passes at a high rate.
Weakness: Creating pressure for himself and taking too many sacks. This play against the Vikings in Week 13, animation courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats, is indicative of what can sometimes be a problem: Wilson bails out completely when he really isn't under pressure and a step to the right would do. As a result, he misses an opportunity to hit Tyler Lockett here and ends up taking a 13-yard sack.
Ultimately, this is a weakness, but it's really OK. It's the cost of doing business with Wilson, who excels when improvising and moving his feet before throwing. The good on those plays well outpaces the bad.
Brady Henderson on what's at stake for Wilson: Wilson already has one Super Bowl title and a new contract that made him the game's highest-paid player. Another Super Bowl would pad his Hall of Fame résumé and heal the wound that remains from the Seahawks coming up a yard short of repeating as champions five seasons ago. And with Seattle down to its Plans C and D at running back, Wilson could answer any doubts that remain about his ability to carry an offense on his shoulders.
3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Season at a glance (full stats): In a season in which his contemporaries' production plunged, Brees is still as productive as ever. He has the best wide receiver in the league at his disposal, but Michael Thomas is really his only weapon.
Strength: Short and midrange accuracy. He connected on 97% of his passes to receivers running quick outs, well above the league average of 73%. And on midrange passes between 10 and 20 air yards, his completion percentage over expectation was plus-10%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Max Kellerman blames Tom Brady for the Patriots' loss at home to the Dolphins with the No. 2 seed in the AFC on the line.
Weakness: The deep ball. He just doesn't throw the ball downfield often. In fact, Brees threw 20-plus yards downfield just 7% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league. And he ranks 13th in QBR on those throws, which is subpar relative to everything else Brees does well.
Mike Triplett on what's at stake for Brees: He shouldn't have anything left to prove. He is the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards and passing TDs. And he just posted the best passer rating of his career at age 40, despite having thumb surgery in September. But that enormous chip on his shoulder has never faded -- especially not after he was just snubbed from the NFL's list of the 100 greatest players. It has now been 10 years since Brees won his only Super Bowl.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Season at a glance (full stats): Maybe it was the midseason injury, or maybe it was the Lamar Jackson breakout, but Mahomes almost slid into the background in 2019 despite maintaining his high level of performance.
Strength: Third-down efficiency. Mahomes recorded the highest QBR in the league on third down, and an outsized portion of that third-down production actually came with his legs. He added the second-most expected points added on third-down runs of any quarterback (behind only Jackson), converting 89% of such runs.
Weakness: Accuracy, at least relative to his other attributes. Mahomes ranked 13th in completed air yards over expectation per attempt and 20th in off-target rate. He's just mediocre in that area relative to his peers, particularly on short and midrange passes.
There are also signs that Mahomes benefits quite a bit from scheme, which matches Andy Reid's reputation. Mahomes' targets averaged 3.8 yards of separation from the nearest defender, which is highest in the league per NFL Next Gen Stats. Shorter targets tend to yield higher separation numbers, but that isn't the driver of the Chiefs' receiver separation, as Mahomes averages a slightly above-average depth of target.
Adam Teicher on what's at stake for Mahomes: Mahomes has accomplished a lot in his two seasons as a starter, but he hasn't led the Chiefs to a Super Bowl. He can add a significant piece to an already burgeoning legacy by taking the Chiefs somewhere they haven't been for 50 years.
5. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Season at a glance (full stats): One of the most improbable developments of the season was that Tannehill -- a seemingly bland quarterback destined to vacillate between mediocre starter and strong backup -- exploded onto the scene midseason, surprisingly taking Tennessee to the postseason. I recently broke down Tannehill and what the future might hold for him here, and there's no question that he has been electric this season.
Strength: Play-action performance. Tannehill and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith appear to be a good match. Smith dialed up play-action 31% of the time this season for the fourth-most such plays in the league. And Tannehill thrived in those opportunities, recording the highest QBR on play-action in the league.
We'd be remiss if we didn't mention his statistical wizardry in another category here: completion percentage over expectation (via NFL Next Gen Stats), in which he also led the league. He's completing passes that simply are unlikely to be made, including the most unlikely completion of the season -- a Week 17 pass to A.J. Brown -- shown below in an animation from NFL Next Gen Stats:
🚨 IMPROBABLE COMPLETION ALERT 🚨
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 29, 2019
Ryan Tannehill & A.J. Brown's 47-yard completion is now the most improbable of the 2019 season (6.2%).
In-Play Factors:
• Air Distance: 60.1 yds
• Sideline Separation: 0.8 yds
• WR Separation: 0.6 yds#TENvsHOU | #Titans pic.twitter.com/tn69VV8uEr
Weakness: Sacks. This is a problem that Tannehill has carried over from his time in Miami. He has taken sacks at the highest rate in the league this season (after recording the second-highest rate last season). The Titans, by the way, have one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL.
Turron Davenport on what's at stake for Tannehill: Despite showcasing the best 10-game stretch of his career, Tannehill, who is a free agent in 2020, still will face questions about being a long-term franchise quarterback. Taking out the Patriots in the wild-card round would do wonders for his contract possibilities. Teams are always willing to heavily invest in a quarterback who has come through in the clutch.
6. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Season at a glance (full stats): There were moments during which Watson flirted with the MVP conversation earlier in the season, but by the end, Watson settled into what was solidly a top-10 quarterback season.
Strength: Beating man coverage. Watson's QBR against man is just under 80, second-best in the league. His scrambles were more effective against man coverage and were the difference, as his non-scramble QBR was equally strong against both man and zone. In terms of passing ability, Watson most excels on downfield throws.
Weaknesses: Inviting pressure on himself. The Texans have the eighth-best pass block win rate -- an ESPN Stats & Information statistic powered by NFL Next Gen Stats -- in the league, and yet Watson is pressured at the seventh-highest rate.
Sarah Barshop on what's at stake for Watson: Watson can continue a winning legacy that he started in college. When the Texans drafted him in 2017, coach Bill O'Brien said one of the reasons they wanted him as their quarterback was because he is a winner. Watson led Clemson to a national championship title in 2016 and finished his college career with a 32-3 record as a starting quarterback. He has won several big games this season, against the Chiefs, Colts and Patriots, and he has a chance to take another step forward this postseason.
7. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Season at a glance (full stats): The forever-underrated Cousins put together a strong 2019 campaign even if his regular season ended ugly against Green Bay. As with Watson, there was a moment midseason in which he looked as though he was on the cusp of the MVP debate. Though he faded from that spot, Vikings fans should still be happy with the season they got out of their quarterback, who is signed through the 2020 season.
Strength: Accuracy. Cousins put up above-average completion percentage over expectation numbers across every depth, ranked third in completed air yards over expectation per attempt and had the fifth-lowest off-target percentage in the league. A second strength is his ability to throw on the run. Cousins' completion percentage over expectation was best in the league on those throws.
Weakness: Cousins can't handle the heat: His QBR is just 6 when under pressure. That's 26th-best in the league overall.
Courtney Cronin on what's at stake for Cousins: Pressure? You want to talk about pressure? What's at stake for Cousins in the playoffs is more than just his outlook with the Vikings. If things go right and he achieves the one thing he has yet to do in his career -- win a playoff game -- the quarterback could be looking at contract extension talks in the near future. If things go poorly, Minnesota might opt to let Cousins play out the third and final year of his fully guaranteed contract while drafting a quarterback in April. But it's not just Cousins' future that is affected by what he does in the postseason. The direction of this franchise -- the coaching staff, the front office, roster decisions -- could change drastically depending on what happens in January.
8. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Season at a glance (full stats): Wentz turned in a solid season considering the disadvantage he faced at receiver because of several injuries. Who knows what his production would have looked like with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson for the entire season, though he did have tight end Zach Ertz at his disposal for most of the season.
Strength: Throwing from outside the pocket. When Wentz moved around he was highly effective, with the third-best QBR from outside the pocket, including zero interceptions. On a related note, he also excelled against pressure. Another nugget: Wentz racked up more yards throwing to wheel routes (217 over 13 targets) than any other quarterback in the league.
Weakness: The deep ball. Wentz's production dipped relative to the rest of the league on passes 20-plus yards downfield, ranking 22nd in QBR on those throws. Wentz's numbers were highly dependent on having Jeffery on the field: He recorded a QBR of 72 with Jeffery on the field, and a 57 without. That might not be a Wentz weakness, but it does signify how important Jeffery was to his production. One other weakness? He fumbles too much. Wentz's 16 fumbles were second only to Daniel Jones' 18 this season.
Tim McManus on what's at stake for Wentz: This is Wentz's chance to start carving out his own playoff legacy in Philadelphia. Injured each of the past two seasons, he had to watch Nick Foles guide this team to a Super Bowl title in the 2017 postseason and a wild-card win last season. Sunday will be Wentz's first playoff game, and it comes against a Seahawks team that he has never beaten (0-3).
9. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Season at a glance (full stats): After playing poorly over a few games in 2018 and having an ugly preseason, Garoppolo settled in as an acceptable quarterback option for a contender with an elite defense.
Strength: Garoppolo is a strange case because he has a couple of strengths that are rarely utilized. He has the second-best QBR when outside the pocket and the best on passes more than 20 yards downfield, which is backed up by a strong completion percentage over expectation on those passes, too. But he also is outside the pocket at a below-average rate and throws 20-plus yards at the lowest rate in the league.
Weakness: Garoppolo's production numbers are much worse against zone. And that spans various zone coverages, too -- Cover 2, Tampa 2, Cover 3, Cover 4 -- he was below average against all of them.
Nick Wagoner on what's at stake for Garoppolo: He can answer any remaining questions about his place as a franchise quarterback in the NFL. Despite checking off boxes all season, Garoppolo still has his skeptics. But if he can perform on the game's biggest stage and guide the 49ers deep into the postseason, it will be hard for even his most cynical critics to find legitimate fodder to doubt him.
10. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Season at a glance (full stats): Tenth out of 12? Let me explain why. The long-awaited steep Brady drop-off finally happened at age 42. You might not have noticed because the Patriots still went 12-4 and he was supported by one of the best defenses of the past decade.
Strength: Limiting pressures, sacks and turnovers. Brady played behind an excellent offensive line in 2018, but the unit in front of him this season was merely average in pass protection. And yet, he had a low pressure and sack rate -- a credit to his read on plays -- and also limited interceptions and turnovers. He even had an above-average QBR on plays in which there was a pass-block loss.
Weakness: Quick passing game. Brady struggled mightily when firing off passes in under 2.5 seconds this season, ranking 29th in QBR on those throws. Perhaps on a related note, he ranked 28th on snaps when both outside receivers received press coverage.
Mike Reiss on what's at stake for Brady: Because Brady is a free agent after the season for the first time in his career, there is a possibility that this could be his final chapter in New England. Nothing that happens in the playoffs will alter his legacy -- with six Super Bowl championships he's among the greatest to ever play the game -- but it could play a part in his decision-making process after the season.
11. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Season at a glance (full stats): Though Rodgers threw just six interceptions over the past two seasons, his decline was evident in other areas. And despite playing behind the best pass-protecting offensive line in the league, his production was simply mediocre this season. Though he was once great, the 36-year-old Rodgers is no longer one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks.
Strength: Turnover avoidance. Rodgers really took that State Farm commercial about cautious driving to heart. He has the lowest interception rate in the league and fumbled just four times.
Weakness: Production. Limiting interceptions does not make a quarterback successful on its own, and the rest of his game just isn't there. He ranks 20th in QBR, his off-target percentage is the fourth highest, and he led the Packers to just a league-average success rate on passing plays. All with the best pass protection a quarterback could have.
Rob Demovsky on what's at stake for Rodgers: Brett Favre or Rodgers? It's a legacy debate that hasn't been decided yet. Each has one Super Bowl title. Rodgers played in one. Favre played in two. A second Super Bowl title might finally give Rodgers the edge over Favre in the eyes of Packers fans who are still debating it.
12. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Season at a glance (full stats): The Bills' 2019 success has come despite Allen, not because of him. While the narrative around the second-year quarterback has shifted positively this season, it has been the impact of many others, most notably the Buffalo defense, that led to the Bills' success. Allen remains a below-average starter, ranking 24th in Total QBR and second-to-last in completed air yards over expectation.
Strength: Running the ball. Allen's strength has remained consistent during his time in the NFL, as he ranks fourth in expected points added as a rusher among quarterbacks this season.
Weakness: There are quite a few. An interesting one that jumped out to me: Although Allen is a proficient runner, he's effective only when he keeps the ball. When throwing on the run, Allen had the second-worst completion percentage over expectation in the league, ranking behind only Gardner Minshew. Beyond that, Allen ranks 30th in off-target percentage and has a high pressure and sack rate despite playing behind a solid pass-blocking line.
Marcel Louis-Jacques on what's at stake for Allen: The narrative surrounding Allen's legitimacy has returned to relevancy, thanks to the Bills' three nationally televised games in their final five contests of the season. He has risen to the occasion in several big moments this season, and if he can do so again on the biggest stages of his career, the rest of the football world won't be able to deny his place in this league. If he struggles, there will be more questions to answer as he enters his pivotal third season.