The Buffalo Bills were the beneficiaries of an easy schedule in 2019. Their only win against a team that ended the season with a winning record was a victory over Tennessee back when Marcus Mariota was still the Titans' starting quarterback. Normally, a record dependent on schedule is a recipe for first-round playoff failure. But that's not necessarily true for the Bills. They played well against top teams in their most recent losses, and their first-round opponent, the Houston Texans, are the weakest team in this season's playoff field, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings.
Upset Watch: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)
These are two teams going in opposite directions over the second half of the season. Both teams went 4-3 in their final seven games, which included a Week 17 loss where each team sat starters for most or all of the game. But compare the other two losses over the past two months. Both teams lost to Baltimore, but Buffalo lost by seven and Houston lost by 34. Buffalo's other loss was to a strong New England team; Houston's other loss was to a mediocre Denver squad.
Overall, Buffalo ranks 13th in our DVOA ratings and Houston 19th. But in weighted DVOA, which gives more strength to games from the past two months, Buffalo moves up to 10th and Houston down to 23rd.
If there's a wild card in this wild-card game, it's the return of several injured players for the Texans. That starts with former Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, who should return from a torn pectoral suffered at midseason. The loss of Watt dramatically affected the Texans' pass rush, but it wasn't particularly good before the injury -- it just went from average to poor. In Weeks 1-8 with Watt, the Texans ranked 16th in pass rush win rate and 18th in pressure rate. In Weeks 9-17 without Watt, the Texans dropped to 31st in PRWR and 30th in pressure rate.
The Bills' offensive line ranked ninth in pass block win rate but 30th in pressure rate. Josh Allen is the kind of quarterback who holds onto the ball, tries to make something happen and thus creates his own pressure. His scrambling could be a problem for the Texans, though. Houston allowed an average of 8.0 yards on quarterback scrambles this season, compared to an NFL average of 7.1 yards. Typically quarterbacks play better against bad pass defenses, but Allen's splits this season have been extreme. Against teams in the bottom half of Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA metric, Allen had a completion rate that was more than 15 percentage points higher and averaged 2.25 more net yards per pass. In six games against defenses ranked in the top half, Allen went 2-4 while completing 49% of his passes for 167 yards per game with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Against the bottom half, he went 8-1 while completing 65% of his passes for 232 yards per game with 12 TDs and four interceptions.
The Texans were one of this season's bad pass defenses, finishing ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA. Even when Watt was healthy and in the lineup, the Texans ranked only 24th in pass defense DVOA.
What's the solution to stopping Allen? It helps to blitz him. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, opponents blitzed Allen 40% of the time, third in the league behind Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. The Texans blitz 35% of the time, good for 10th in the league. Allen had a 38.7 QBR against the blitz, ranking 28th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks. Connected to this is the fact that Allen also had a 39.8 QBR against man coverage (28th) compared to a 66.6 QBR against zone coverage (eighth). The Texans played man and zone each about 50-50 and had a similar QBR allowed in both man and zone.
When Allen gets blitzed, Cole Beasley needs to be his hot read. The Texans were absolutely mauled by passes in the short middle of the field this season. Against passes marked in the play-by-play as "short middle" (up to 15 yards past the line of scrimmage), the Texans allowed an 83% completion rate, 10.8 yards per target and 7.0 average yards after the catch. All of those numbers were the worst in the league (NFL averages: 72%, 7.5, and 4.9), and Houston's defense up the middle might be further affected by the loss of safety Tashaun Gipson, who is now on injured reserve. Allen was roughly league average on these passes, according to DVOA, though he was a bit below average by completion rate (66%) and yards per target (7.1). This range is Beasley's domain; he was tied for 12th in the NFL in short middle targets.
Buffalo's running game wasn't particularly strong this season, but it was a comparative strength, ranking 17th in DVOA compared to a passing game that was 23rd. Based on FO's adjusted line yards metric, the Bills are stronger on runs up the middle, where the Texans' run defense is weaker. (Ignore Buffalo's No. 1 rank on runs around right end, which is based on a very small sample size.)
The Bills' real strength is on defense, where they ranked sixth in DVOA this season, including fifth against the pass. The Texans' offense was only 17th, but their offense depends a lot on the health of deep threat Will Fuller. Fuller stretches the field and opens things up for Houston's other receivers underneath. Fuller is a game-time decision for Saturday's contest due to a groin injury, but even if he starts, there's no guarantee he can make it through the entire contest. And the loss of Fuller made a huge difference in Houston's offense. With Fuller playing at least 20 snaps, the Texans had 35.4% passing DVOA, which would have ranked sixth on the season. They ranked 11th in the league in DVOA on deep passes with Fuller. Without Fuller, not including Week 17, the Texans had minus-8.5% passing DVOA, which would have ranked 27th in the league. They ranked 29th on deep passes in these games.
The Bills had an excellent secondary this season. Only New England was better at covering opponents' No. 1 receivers, and Buffalo was also a top-five defense against No. 2s. Tre'Davious White is a DPOY candidate, allowing just 5.8 yards per pass in coverage with a 61% success rate. Taron Johnson had a 59% success rate, and Kevin Johnson had a 68% success rate. Only Levi Wallace was a weakness, with just a 44% success rate. He tends to cover shorter slot-receiver routes. The Bills are far better at defending passes on the sides of the field rather than the middle. Buffalo ranked second in DVOA on passes to the left and third on passes to the right. But the Bills ranked 19th on passes to the short middle (up to 15 yards past the line of scrimmage) and 28th on passes to the deep middle. Unfortunately for Houston, this is place where they can attack weakness with strength. The Texans were below average on both short and deep middle passes this season, and Deshaun Watson threw the majority of his interceptions in the middle of the field.
The Bills were one of the more zone-oriented teams in the league, playing zone 54% of the time. Watson didn't struggle against zone this season, but he was better against man, with a 79.9 QBR against man coverage (second) compared to 64.6 QBR against zone coverage (10th). Zone coverage also helps the Bills watch out for Watson scrambling. Like Allen, he was one of the league's most frequent scramblers. The Bills faced fewer scrambles than the average defense and allowed just 5.7 yards per carry on these plays.
Carlos Hyde could play an important role for the Texans, as run defense was a comparative weakness for the Bills. They ranked fifth against the pass but 18th against the run. Houston didn't get particularly strong run blocking, ranking just 22nd in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards, but made up for it with good performance by the backs on longer runs.
Overall, this would be a different game if the Houston offense were fully healthy. But with both Fuller and Kenny Stills (knee) hobbled, expect the superior Buffalo secondary to take charge in this matchup. That will keep Houston's scoring down. On the other side, Buffalo's offense should be able to score enough points on the Houston defense to make this game close or even come away with an upset win.
Upset Watch appears each week on ESPN+ Chalk, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of at least three points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.