According to Football Outsiders playoff odds simulations, the Chicago Bears only have a 4.5% chance to make the postseason. But a small chance is better than no chance, and the next step to making a dramatic reversal from 4-6 to a playoff team would be a win in Green Bay this Sunday. Take out the Packers and Chicago's playoff odds almost double to 9.6%. Something is hanging in the balance.
Upset Watch: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
You may remember that we featured the Packers in "Cover Watch" last week, predicting that they couldn't cover a 12.5-point spread against Washington. They didn't. Green Bay's place in "Upset Watch" this week starts from much the same place;
The Packers rank 10th overall in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings: sixth on offense and 20th on defense. Green Bay has outscored opponents just 309-270 this year; that point differential usually works out to a team with 7.5 wins, not 10. The Packers are 6-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points. They've also been outgained by opponents on average, 5.9 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play.
DVOA does not have the Bears as high as the Packers, but it's closer than you would expect, with Chicago currently standing at 15th overall. Chicago's ratings are close to Green Bay's in reverse: seventh on defense but 23rd on offense. However, the Chicago offense has improved in recent weeks. The Bears were 28th in offensive DVOA through Week 9, but they rank 14th since Week 10, and they've gone from 4.5 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play.
This could finally be the game for Chicago to get its running game going with David Montgomery. The rookie is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and has only one 100-yard game this season; Chicago is only 29th in run offense DVOA. But the Packers are poor against the run, particularly up front. They rank dead last in our adjusted line yards metric on defense, and they've stuffed opposing runners for a loss or no gain on a league-low 12.3% of carries.
On the other hand, Chicago might want pass right from the get-go, because that's when its offense works best. The Bears are a surprising seventh passing the ball on first downs. Some more play-action would help as well. They have used play-action on just 21% of pass plays this season, which ranks in the bottom 10, according to Sports Info Solutions. But their league-low 5.3 yards per pass without play-action improves to 7.3 yards per pass with play-action.
The best way to shut down Mitchell Trubisky is to blitz him. When he faces just three or four pass-rushers, Trubisky's QBR of 62.3 is 12th in the league. When he gets blitzed, that QBR drops to a dismal 16.9 -- worst in the league. The good news for Chicago is that this simply isn't the M.O. of the Packers defense, which is near the bottom of the league in blitzing on just 22% of pass plays.
A shoulder injury kept Green Bay cornerback Kevin King out of last week's game, but if he plays this week the Bears need to throw at him. Based on Sports Info Solutions charting, Jaire Alexander is averaging just 7.0 yards per target with a 62% success rate in coverage, while King is averaging 11.1 yards per target with a 46% success rate.
Another weakness for the Packers is that they rank only 28th in DVOA covering tight ends, but Chicago isn't the right team to take advantage of that. Tight end Ben Braunecker, taking over for the injured Trey Burton, has only four receptions since entering the starting lineup three weeks ago.
Just as the Chicago offense has some advantages that suggest a good game against the Packers defense, so too does the Green Bay offense have some advantages that suggest a higher-scoring game than expected on both sides.
For example, Green Bay has an advantage in the red zone, where its offense ranks fifth and the Bears' defense is only 21st (including a very poor 29th against the run). And while Chicago's pass defense ranks fourth against short passes, it ranks just 22nd against deep passes (16 or more yards in the air). Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in value on deep passes based on FO's DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) metric.
But when the Packers do try to throw short, the Bears' defense will be there to keep things contained. Chicago allows just 4.6 average yards after the catch, third in the league behind Minnesota and New Orleans. And Chicago is one of the league's finest tackling defenses, ranking fourth in fewest broken tackles.
ESPN's coverage metrics suggest that the Bears want to play more man coverage than zone against the Packers. Their split this year is close to the NFL average of 50/50. But the Bears have allowed 4.9 yards per play in man compared to 6.0 yards per play in zone, while Rodgers has gained 6.0 yards per play against man compared to 6.9 yards per play against zone.
Running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should be able to get steady gains against the Bears' defense, but not big gains. Green Bay is sixth and the Chicago defense just 21st in adjusted line yards, our metric that measures run blocking. But Chicago ranks third in the league in second-level yards per carry allowed (yards 5-10 past the line of scrimmage) and first in open-field yards per carry allowed (yards 10 or more past the line of scrimmage). Green Bay's best running down -- the Packers are first in the league in efficiency on second-down runs -- is also the best down against the run for the Chicago defense.
Cover Watch: New England Patriots (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals
There's been a lot of discussion recently about whether Tom Brady is washed up at this point. There's a lot less discussion about whether Andy Dalton is washed up. After all, who's paying attention to what's going on with 1-12 Cincinnati, other than the debate about whom they should take with the No. 1 overall draft pick next year?
Nonetheless, Dalton has shown this year that he still has a future in the league, even though it is likely as a backup. The difference between Dalton and Ryan Finley, the rookie who replaced him for three games, was fairly large. With Finley at quarterback, Cincinnati had an offensive DVOA of -33.4%, which would rank last in the league for the entire year. With Dalton at quarterback, including the past two games, Cincinnati's had an offensive DVOA of -11.8%, which would be tied for 25th. That's not good, but considering the lack of offensive talent around the quarterback position in Cincinnati, it's passable.
You know about the decline on offense for New England, but the defense has also regressed toward the mean over the past few weeks. The Patriots' defense through the first seven games had -45.2% DVOA, which over a full season would be the best we've ever measured. The Patriots' defense through the past seven games has -17.2% DVOA -- still very good (fourth in the league), but not the dominant unit from the first half of the season.
A Bengals offense with a better quarterback, a Patriots team playing worse on both sides of the ball and a home game for Cincinnati all combine to make this one of Week 15's best opportunities for an underdog cover.
Upset Watch appears each week on ESPN+ Chalk, as Football Outsiders uses a proprietary formula to forecast the expected point spread of each game based on current DVOA ratings (explained here) and, early in the season, our DVOA projections. Each week we highlight the most likely upset on a game with a line of at least three points, plus an additional game where a significant underdog has a strong chance to cover.