We've reached Week 15 of the NFL season, and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and general editor Ben Fawkes, Fantasy's Mike Clay, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network are here to tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Youmans 1-2-1 (27-22-2 on season)
Kezirian 1-1 (15-20-1)
Bearman 2-1 (15-16-1)
Clay 2-2 (21-11)
Fortenbaugh 3-1 (30-24-1)
Preston Johnson 1-3 (18-24-1)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Wednesday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
1 p.m. games
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 40.5)
Fortenbaugh: The Packers have a good record, but are they a good football team? This is the question I've been pondering all week after watching Aaron Rodgers and company post a 3-2 record over their last five contests with wins over the Panthers, Giants and Redskins (combined record of 10-29), coupled with humiliating losses against the Chargers (26-11) and 49ers (37-8). I know that Rodgers is an elite quarterback, but I have questions about the head coach as well as every other position on the field. After all, the Packers rank 22nd in total defense, 24th in opponent yards per play and 18th in opponent third-down conversions. Something definitely looks off.
Meanwhile, the Bears are back from the brink after ripping off four wins over their last five outings while holding the opposition to just 17.6 points per game during that stretch. Oh, and did I forget to mention that Chicago enters Week 15 on 10 days of rest and expects linchpin defender Akiem Hicks back from a dislocated elbow sustained in Week 5? Don't be shocked if the Bears win this game outright.
Pick: Bears +4.5
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 46)
Youmans: This is not a good spot for the Chiefs off their win at New England and with Patrick Mahomes playing with a bruised passing hand. There are reasons for this line dropping from 11 to 9.5 this week. Since starting 0-4 -- and losing two games they should have won -- the Broncos are 5-4 straight and 7-2 against the spread. A week ago, Denver jumped all over Houston and led 38-3. The Texans were also coming off a win over the Patriots. The Broncos are 2-0 behind rookie Drew Lock, who has completed 72.7% of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. It's way too soon to say Lock is the real deal, but so far, so good. Vic Fangio's defense is holding its ground, and Von Miller is expected to play again this week, so Denver should continue to be feisty 'dog.
Pick: Broncos +9.5
Bearman: Second straight week the Broncos get a team coming off a win vs. the Patriots. I gave out the stat last week that in 2018, the five teams that beat the Patriots were 0-5 the following week. The Ravens had no issues earlier this year (they haven't had many issues all year) after their Patriots win, but you saw what the Texans did last week. The Broncos look like a different team with Lock. SIG's Mackenzie Kraemer points out that Lock can become the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era (Mahomes, Kyle Allen) to start 3-0, all as an underdog, and the first rookie to do so. Earlier this year, the Chiefs won easily in a weird Thursday game that saw Mahomes exit with an injury and Matt Moore pass all over the Broncos. But last year, the Broncos kept it close in both matchups, rushing for over 150 yards in both one-score games. Phillip Lindsay rushed for 95 at Arrowhead, and both Lindsay and Royce Freeman had big games in the other matchup.
Eight of the Broncos' 13 games have been one-score games this season, and they won two of the five that weren't. Expect them to keep this one close and continue a trend that has seen them cover seven of the last nine.
Pick: Broncos +9.5
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 50)
Johnson: Here are the facts about the Titans: They've won six of their last seven with Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback, including four straight. They beat the Chiefs 35-32 despite being outgained by 159 yards and giving up 530. They beat a trending-down Jaguars team that has lost five straight by an average of 23.4 points per game. They beat the Colts in Indianapolis despite being outgained by 99 yards and giving up 22 first downs to just 15 of their own (a field goal blocked for a 61-yard Titans touchdown late in the fourth quarter swung the game). This past Sunday, they beat a Raiders team that was in contention for a playoff spot, 42-21.
While blasting Oakland in that second half was impressive -- and Tennessee and Tannehill deserve credit for turning their season around -- I'm still not sold they deserve to be a 3-point favorite over a team that I grade better in the Texans. My projection is Titans -0.4, so at +3 the Texans qualify as a play for me. Defensively the Titans are better against the run, but they rank 19th in the NFL against the pass this season and haven't had to face Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller yet. I'm on Houston.
Pick: Texans +3
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5, 46.5)
Bearman: Raise your hand if you want to lay 3.5 points with a 2-11 team in the middle of a franchise-worst nine-game losing streak? Both teams are bad, no doubt. But one is playing above their record and one is not, and I'd rather have the team playing above their record and getting 3.5 points. The Dolphins have covered in seven of their last nine games and should have beaten the Jets last week in the first of two consecutive games at MetLife Stadium. Brian Flores is coaching for wins and not for draft picks.
Miami has played well on the road this season, going 4-2 ATS, with one of the losses at Dallas in a game they were covering for the first 56 minutes. It was a nice first half for Eli Manning and the Giants last Monday night, but the end result was the same as the previous eight. Even with Eli, the Giants only mustered 17 points, the fourth time in the last five games and sixth time during the nine-game skid in which they haven't broken 20. The end is likely near for Pat Shurmur, which is why I didn't raise my hand. Give me the points.
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
New England Patriots (-9.5, 40.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Kezirian: The Patriots are once against accused of funny business with taping an opponent. Often this type of noise proves to be just that -- noise. However, the Patriots are the one team that typically rallies around such criticism. Additionally, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are 41-19 ATS off an outright loss. This is a big number for an offense that has struggled so much, but I am banking on a great effort from both sides of the ball. And the Pats often deliver when playing with a chip on their shoulder. On top of that, Cincinnati is a bad football team. Let's pump the brakes on praising the Bengals for being competitive in Cleveland. The Browns are a hot mess. Andy Dalton is obviously an upgrade over Ryan Finley, but this offense should struggle against a stout Patriots defense.
Pick: Patriots -9.5 and Bengals team total under 15.5 (FanDuel)
Fawkes: You don't make money betting consistently against the Patriots, but they have struggled against the number this season. New England (7-6 ATS) has covered as many games in the 2019 season as the Dolphins. Yes, the defense is tops in the league in Football Outsiders' DVOA, but the offense is 13th and has struggled to move the ball consistently and score points.
That being said, the 1-12 Bengals are simply not a good football team and are only 1-4-1 against the number at home. They did average 6.3 YPP against the Browns last week, but the New England D is a different animal. Belichick can't be happy with Spygate 2.0, so this sets up as a nice get-right game. ESPN's Football Power Index has the line at New England -14.1, and I agree. The Patriots have lost three straight regular-season games ATS; the last time they lost four in a row was 2002.
Pick: Patriots -9.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 40) at Washington Redskins
Youmans: Interim coach Bill Callahan has made the Redskins more competitive partly by improving the team's scouting techniques and making practices tougher. The offensive line is performing better and rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who is a long way from being a quality starter, is showing at least a hint of progress. Washington was 0-5 when Jay Gruden was fired and is 3-5 under Callahan. The Redskins have won two of their past three and covered three in a row with the defense allowing 21 points or fewer in each game. Rodgers was unable to lead a second-half touchdown drive in Green Bay's 20-15 win in Week 14.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson celebrated an overtime victory over the Giants on Monday as if it were a playoff game. It kept Philadelphia's playoff hopes alive, but that's about it. The Giants went in with an eight-game losing streak and a cold, old Manning at quarterback. I still believe in Carson Wentz, who's trying to carry a beat-up team to the finish line. Wide receivers have been dropping like flies -- Alshon Jeffery is now done for the season -- and right tackle Lane Johnson is doubtful this week. Philadelphia's major edge in this matchup is Wentz over Haskins. Still, the Eagles, who lost at Miami as 10-point favorites two weeks ago, are an injury-riddled team with all sorts of problems. I made this line 3.
Pick: Redskins +4.5
Seattle Seahawks (-6, 48) at Carolina Panthers
Fortenbaugh: If the Panthers couldn't be bothered to show up in the wake of Ron Rivera's firing, what would make you think they're going to show up in this spot? Carolina has dropped five straight by an average of 13 points per game while the defense has been gashed for an average of 31.1 points per contest over its last nine outings. As for the offense, quarterback Kyle Allen has been sacked 21 times over the last four weeks, and running back Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry over that same time span. Needless to say, this team is struggling. I'm not interested in laying the full six points with a Seattle outfit that is making its fifth trip this season to the Eastern Time zone, but I do like the Seahawks to win this game outright. Russell Wilson and company are 6-1 on the road this year and have lost back-to-back games just six times over the past seven years.
Pick: 6-point teaser with Seahawks PK and Raiders -.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 47) at Detroit Lions
Fawkes: It's never ideal when your quarterback has a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. When your quarterback is Jameis Winston (26 TDs and 23 INTs) and he's throwing tennis balls at practice on a Thursday, it's even less ideal.
The Detroit injury report is concerning, but with Mike Evans out I expect Darius Slay to shut down Chris Godwin. And the Lions should be able to throw the ball against Tampa Bay's porous secondary (but may not be able to run against its top-ranked rush D). Not my strongest opinion of this week's games, but David Blough has been serviceable for Detroit and should be able to keep this game within the number.
Pick: Lions +3.5
4 p.m. games
Los Angeles Rams (-1, 49) at Dallas Cowboys
Youmans: It does not require a team of MIT researchers to see why the favorite has flipped in this game after Dallas opened -2. The Cowboys are 3-7 in their past 10 games (with victories over the Eagles, Giants and Lions) and have not defeated a team that currently has a winning record. The distractions and dysfunction in Dallas get worse each week, as it becomes clear coach Jason Garrett is doomed. The Cowboys' most important remaining game is on deck at Philadelphia in Week 16.
The Dallas run defense was ripped for 151 yards by the Bears, who seemed close to benching quarterback Mitchell Trubisky until the Cowboys made him resemble Aaron Rodgers. Sean McVay is rediscovering running back Todd Gurley at the right time. Gurley has totaled 42 carries for 174 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' past two wins, and Jared Goff is hitting more big pass plays behind an improved offensive line. It's not easy to surrender line value here, but McVay and the Rams are starting to roll while the Cowboys are collapsing around Garrett.
Pick: Rams -1
Bearman: There are stats and trends and there is the eye test. Either way you look at it, the Rams are the better team here. As Youmans mentioned above, it would've been great if this was still Rams +2, but I'll take them -1 to win as well. The Cowboys have collectively beaten no one all season and have looked awful in their losses, getting blown out by the Bills and Bears the last two weeks. It's not even a desperate "must-win" spot for Dallas as they still control their own destiny with a game at the Eagles next week. I look forward to reading the "how I kept my job" book from Garrett. Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS and SU since the trade for Jalen Ramsey and are right back in the playoff mix with the win over Seattle last week. Goff and McVay's offense looks back on track with 62 points over the last two games. That should play well against a fading Dallas defense that has given up 25-plus points in four of the last five games.
Pick: Rams -1
Fortenbaugh: It doesn't require a trained eye to recognize that Garrett officially lost his locker room during the fourth quarter of a 13-9 loss at New England back on Nov. 24 when he decided to kick a 29-yard field goal on fourth-and-7 down 13-6 with 6:04 remaining, going from needing a touchdown to ... wait for it ... still needing a touchdown. Since that time, the Cowboys have surrendered a total of 57 points to Josh Allen and Trubisky in back-to-back losses to the Bills and Bears. If Garrett's seat was any hotter it could melt carbon, and if the Cowboys were any colder they could house Superman in his Fortress of Solitude. Meanwhile, McVay and the Rams have quietly won three of their last four games while holding the opposition to 17 or fewer points in six of their last seven outings, a streak that just so happens to coincide with the arrival of All-Pro cornerback Ramsey via trade from Jacksonville. Take note that the Cowboys have won six games this season against five teams with a combined record of just 17-47-1. To put it another way, Dallas has lost every game it has played this season against teams with a winning record. Sunday against the Rams will be no different.
Pick: Rams -1
Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 49) at Arizona Cardinals
Fawkes: No doubt, it has been a disappointing season for the Browns, a team that made the Bengals (31st in offensive efficiency by FPI) look like an elite offensive unit last week. Still, with a 3.8% chance to make the postseason, per FPI, Cleveland has something left to play for.
The Cardinals will play in their third straight home game on Sunday and should be able to move the ball against the Browns, especially against their 25th-ranked rush defense by DVOA. The Browns in turn should be able to throw the ball against Arizona's 29th-ranked pass defense by DVOA. I've backed Cleveland in two games I believed they couldn't lose (Week 9 at Denver in Brandon Allen's first start and Week 13 at Pittsburgh in Devlin "Duck" Hodges' first start). Third time's the charm.
Pick: Browns -2.5 and over 49
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5, 46)
Fortenbaugh: Forget the fact that this is the last time the Raiders will take the field at the Coliseum in front of their Bay Area fans, and focus instead on the pathetic nature with which the Jaguars conduct their business. Soon-to-be-dismissed head coach Doug Marrone is presiding over an organization that has lost five straight games by 17 or more points for an average butt-kicking of 23.4 points per game. That's not bad, that's pitiful. Jacksonville ranks 18th in yards per play, 28th in opponent yards per play and t-20th in turnover differential this season. The Raiders might be bad, but at least they care. And when we're talking about covering a 6-point teaser spread of just -.5, that's all I need to bet against this Jaguars team.
Pick: 6-point teaser with Raiders -.5 and Seahawks PK
Johnson: The Jaguars are on a skid, having dropped five straight by an average of 23.4 points per game. They're confused about who to give the ball under center, and by all accounts it appears they have packed it in. Oakland's Week 14 loss to Tennessee was detrimental to their playoff hopes, but the Raiders aren't completely eliminated yet. Running back Josh Jacobs has been practicing, and I'm perfectly content laying under the key number of seven with the Raiders in Week 15 in their final game ever at the Coliseum (would be a pass if this moves up to -7).
Pick: Raiders -6.5
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11, 48)
Johnson: I took this over earlier in the week at 46.5 and wouldn't suggest betting it unless it trickled back down to 47 or better, but I wanted to make everyone aware of the injuries the 49ers defense is facing. You may be thinking the 48-46 game in New Orleans was just a fluke, and while it probably was extreme to some degree, the San Francisco defense has now lost five starters on the defensive side of the ball in the last week. All five players have missed practice this week, and there isn't optimism coming out of the 49ers camp that any of them will be available Sunday against the Falcons. With cluster injuries on their defensive line and cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt out in the secondary, the Falcons are going to have opportunities to score.
On the other side of the ball, the San Francisco offense has been getting healthier and playing in sync. A matchup against Atlanta's 23rd-ranked defense in opponent yards per play (26th in DVOA) sets this game up to be another potential shootout.
Pick: Lean over 48, buy at 47 or better
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 45) at Los Angeles Chargers
Fortenbaugh: The Pacific Time zone hasn't been the most hospitable of places for the Vikings this millennium, as Minnesota is an abysmal 4-14 on the road against the Chargers, Raiders, 49ers, Rams (since 2016), Seahawks and Cardinals since the year 2000. Whatever the reason for the franchise's lengthy struggles with this particular region of the country, we do know that the current iteration of the Vikings struggles mightily once they step outside the confines of U.S. Bank Stadium. Case in point:
• MIN at home in 2019: 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS, 27.7 ppg, 14.2 ppg allowed
• MIN on road in 2019: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 24.7 ppg, 23.4 ppg allowed
What's particularly alarming is the drop in defensive production once the Vikings no longer enjoy the benefit of a hostile environment, as evidenced by Minnesota's sack total dropping from 21 at home in six games to 17 sacks on the road in seven contests. Quarterback Kirk Cousins also undergoes a recognizable transformation outside of his home state thanks to an 80.1% completion percentage and 126.0 QB rating at home vs. a 63.7% completion percentage and 101.6 QB rating on the road. This game has all the makings of a heavily-wagered public side in Minnesota taking on a sharp-backed Chargers squad, assuming the number gets to +3.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
Fawkes: Under a field goal, I like this short number for the Vikings. Joe is absolutely right about it being a public side and Cousins struggling on the road, but the last three road games (and six overall) have been without star wideout Adam Thielen. This is a completely different offense when teams can't roll coverage to Stefon Diggs' side.
Minnesota's four losses this season have all come on the road against somewhat mobile QBs (Aaron Rodgers, Mitchell Trubisky, Matt Moore, Russell Wilson). Philip Rivers would not qualify as such. The lookahead line at The SuperBook was Minnesota -3, so you're getting some value here because the Chargers looked good beating up a bad Jaguars team 45-10 last week.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
8:20 p.m. game
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 36.5)
Youmans: Allen opened eyes on Thanksgiving when he led the Bills to a breakthrough win at Dallas. But the defense he faced that day was a turkey, and the one he will face in Pittsburgh is much tougher. The Steelers are 7-1 in their past eight games while allowing 16 points per game and 17 points or fewer in six of the eight. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards allowed (209.8 per game) and second in interceptions (18), validating the risky September trade of a 2020 first-round pick for free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Allen is still struggling with his accuracy from the pocket. His completion percentage (59.8) ranks 32nd in the league. The Steelers rank No. 1 in sacks (48), so they have the ability to pressure Allen and force him into rushed throws and mistakes.
The Bills were 6.5-point underdogs to the Cowboys, and that obviously was a bad number, but this 2-point line makes the price on the Steelers cheap by comparison. No, "Duck" Hodges is not Dak Prescott, but he is giving Pittsburgh a chance to win each week and its defense is doing the rest.
Pick: Steelers -2
Fortenbaugh: It's imperative my wife not come across this article, because as a card-carrying member of Bills Mafia, she's likely to commence divorce proceedings should her highly suspicious husband be discovered wagering on the enemy. But what's a gambler to do? After all, I don't trust a Bills team that currently boasts seven of its nine victories against teams that would be selecting in the top 11 of the NFL draft if the season ended today, with the two dissenters from that group coming in the form of a Titans squad that was riding Marcus Mariota at the time they played Buffalo and a Cowboys club that has all but quit on the season. Additionally, Allen is completing only 59.8% of his passes this season (32nd in the NFL), which could pose trouble on the road against a Steelers defense that ranks ninth in opponent completion percentage (61.9%), which is a number that drops to just 54.2% over Pittsburgh's last five games. Speaking of the Steelers defense, good gracious how this team has improved with the addition of Fitzpatrick, as they has permitted an average of just 16.4 points per game in the 11 contests since that trade was completed back in September. Further, the Black & Yellow have given up 17 or fewer points in six of their last eight matchups and currently rank third in the league in opponent yards per play (4.8). Sorry, babe. I'm laying the points with Mike Tomlin.
Pick: Steelers -2
Clay: John Brown has reached 57 yards in eight of 13 games this season and, though he's fallen short of 40 yards in each of his past three games, note that he was dealing with tough Denver, Dallas and Baltimore secondaries. The Steelers' defense is good but not quite as dominant, having allowed 148 receptions (10th-fewest) and 1,950 yards (11th-fewest) to wide receivers this season. Fourteen wide receivers have reached 57 yards against Pittsburgh this season, including at least one in eight consecutive games. Brown is handling a 25% target share, which works out to 7.8 targets per game, and remains Allen's No. 1 target. A better baseline for Brown is 62.5 this week.
Pick: Brown over 56.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: Steelers feature back James Conner is expected back from injury this week, which would revert Benny Snell Jr. back to a situational role. In that scenario, a safe projection would be somewhere in the range of four carries for 17 yards. Even if you're more optimistic about his role, 56 yards is a long shot if Conner (averaging 13.8 carries per game in seven full games) is back in the fold. This won't be as strong of a bet if Conner surprisingly remains out, as the Bills have allowed 12 backs to reach 57 rushing yards this season.
Pick: Snell under 55.5 rushing yards (-110)